http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15167150/site/newsweek/

HOW LOW CAN THE REPUBLICANS GO
Newsweek
Oct. 7, 2006 -

For the first time since 2001, the NEWSWEEK poll shows that more Americans trust the Democrats than the GOP on moral values and the war on terror. Fully 53 percent of Americans want the Democrats to win control of Congress next month, including 10 percent of Republicans, compared to just 35 percent who want the GOP to retain power.

Meanwhile, the president’s approval rating has fallen to a new all-time low for the Newsweek poll: 33 percent, down from an already anemic 36 percent in August.

For the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll, a majority of Americans now believe the Bush administration knowingly misled the American people in building its case for war against Saddam Hussein: 58 percent vs. 36 percent who believe it didn’t

Nearly two in three Americans, 64 percent, believe the United States is losing ground in Iraq; 66 percent say the war has not made America safer from terrorism (just 29 percent believe it has); and 53 percent believe it was a mistake to go to war at all, again the first time the NEWSWEEK poll has registered a majority in that camp.

A third of registered voters, 33 percent, say the single most important issue that will decide their vote will be Iraq; compare to 20 percent who say the economy and only 12 percent who say terrorism, which ties with health care.

While the parties are pretty similar I still believe the legislative and the executive branches should be controled by opposite parties to mantain any resemblence to checks and balances.

The democrats need to win back the house and the senate.

A big swing is just not possible, for two reasons.

1. Gerrymandering of seats and elections funds ensures that most seats (Republican or Democrat) wouldn't change hands if Dubya or Hillary were caught on videotape sacrificing a child in a satanic ritual. This is even more true of Republican seats because of their money advantage.

2. Democrats don't vote Democrat, Republicans don't vote Republican, and Independents don't (for the most part) vote period. The best that can happen, from a Democratic perspective, is that fewer Republicans turn out to vote out of dislike of the current government.

Prediction: a swing of 1 senate seat and 22-26 house seats to the Democrats. That's what a dramatic change during a mid-term election has become under the current electoral system.

22-26 seats would still control congress right? Isn't only 15 seats needed for control?

The polls are across the board. Voting for the House is done by district. As skeptic-f noted gerrymandering has made most of the district safe for the incumbants. To get the swing that the Demons are hoping for would mean that there would need to be enough districts that are close and only then would a overall attitude maybe move the districts.

I mentioned in another thtread that in my opinion we have one district in Conn where the Democrtas could run a comotose cow and it would win.

Look at the gerrymandered district where Delay came from. Even with a replacement for Delay the Repub should winn hands down and if the Repubs are not sure I can see if I can lend them the "comotose cow".

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"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. "- Thomas Paine

There will be a terror story by OCT 17TH which will come out and it will be something like the PC's found with terrorist information plans to a t t a c k the US. TtHE ADMIN WILL PLAY IT UP !!! There will be some elements of truth in the story but there will be implications and maybe some fabrications buried within.

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"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. "- Thomas Paine

Someone who agrees with me...SILKHEAT..thank you, thank you, thank you!!!!

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"Only a fool tests the depth of the water with both feet."