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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2007, 09:32 AM
jsh1120 jsh1120 is offline
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Default Reading Polls

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Originally Posted by The12thMan";p=&quot View Post
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Originally Posted by jsh1120";p=&quot View Post
To follow up on the last post, the best source of multiple public opinion polls on a wide variety of topics is...

http://www.pollingreport.com/index.html

Partisans of all stripes can find results to encourage and depress them.
I like RealClearPolitics better.

Kinda makes me wonder why anyone would say that Rasmussen favors Republicans. Shows that Newsweek is the outlier too.
Real Clear Politics is a useful site. Its focus, however, is more narrow in terms of public opinion and extends beyond public opinion per se compared to polling report. Its in depth coverage of public opinion, at least in my experience, is lacking.

Rasmussen is a long-time Republican party pollster. Their results consistently track more positively for the GOP than other organizations. This is due, in part, it seems to their sampling methodology, use of robo-calls, definitions of likely voters, and to the wording and response categories of some of their questions.

This doesn't necessarily make their results "wrong." It just tends to shift opinion a few points to the right compared to most other polling organizations. (Fox' polling organization "Opinion Dynamics" is similar. In addition, however, Fox polls the effectiveness of their "talking points" in their polls. The results of those questions tend to be virtually worthless since they tend to measure the persuasiveness of the Fox message rather than the opinions held by the public.)

Since all polling organizations differ to some extent in the technical aspects of their survey methodologies, it's always risky to compare one organization's results with another. Determining who is "correct" is, of course, impossible except in the infrequent case where the same election result is predicted by different organizations immediately before the actual vote. (And with more and more absentee voting even that is problematic.)

One is on safer ground by looking at trends in the same questions asked by the same organization over time. If the trends are consistent over multiple organizations asking similar questions, one can be fairly sure that the trends are real.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2007, 09:41 AM
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Default Red Herring Arguments

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Originally Posted by BroncoBilly";p=&quot View Post
Truman was 22%, and they made how many movies about him? How great of a president is he regarded today?

The ignorance, it is absolute bliss. Buy a vowel Vanna, you still can't spell history.
When you don't have the evidence on your side, try shifting to another discussion.

There is no question that Truman is better treated by historians than he was by voters in 1952. Arguably, his low poll numbers convinced him not to run for a second full term.

Likewise, Nixon's numbers tanked in 1974. He hasn't been especially well-treated by historians despite some notable successes.

And Jimmy Carter also had numbers as low as Bush II. I assume you're not arguing that he was a great president.

In other words, your comments are irrelevant to the issue raised in this thread. And while it is possible that someday GWB will be viewed as a great president, that's likely to be a consensus among historians just after sightings of flying pigs.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2007, 09:59 AM
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Default Bush Republicans versus Far Left Democrats

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Originally Posted by The12thMan";p=&quot View Post
The Democrat's problem is that there won't be any "generic" candidates on the ballot. The actual Democrat candidates are all far left, IMO. They're running on hate and it's a long time 'til election day.
You seem to be missing the point. No one claims that the 2008 election will be run with "generic" candidates. However, perceptions of candidates tend to be filtered through voters' partisan preferences. (As your comment above demonstrates.) Republicans have a much more difficult challenge in convincing voters they aren't "Bush Republicans" than Democrats do in convincing voters they aren't "far left."

Not surprisingly, as the almost complete absence of references to Bush in the first Republican debate indicates, the candidates all understand this. Unfortunately, the effort to reach back 20 years to ride on Reagan's coattails ignores the fact that the part of the electorate Republicans need to win is largely unable to remember Ronald Reagan and they're all too familiar with George Bush.

Likewise, references to "left" and "right" are largely lost on the critical middle segment of the electorate. Such abstractions don't drive voters in that part of the ideological spectrum (as the Republicans discovered when they tried to run against Nancy Pelosi as a "San Francisco liberal" in 2006.)

Take a look at the Pew Research study on political values cited above. I think you'll find that what you consider to be "far left" is pretty much the center of gravity of Americans' political values these days. You might consider a platform based on international cooperation rather than military confrontation and domestic policies that emphasize universal health care to be "running on hate," but that's not a view shared by the majority of the electorate.
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Old 05-06-2007, 01:41 PM
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AH I didn't notice they where 2 months apart..my bad. My mistake.
But the idea that all Democrats frontrunners are outpolling all Republican frontrunners is absurd.
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Old 05-06-2007, 01:49 PM
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May 5, 2007 - It’s hard to say which is worse news for Republicans: that George W. Bush now has the worst approval rating of an American president in a generation, or that he seems to be dragging every ’08 Republican presidential candidate down with him. But According to the new NEWSWEEK Poll, the public’s approval of Bush has sunk to 28 percent, an all-time low for this president in our poll, and a point lower than Gallup recorded for his father at Bush Sr.’s nadir. The last president to be this unpopular was Jimmy Carter who also scored a 28 percent approval in 1979. This remarkably low rating seems to be casting a dark shadow over the GOP’s chances for victory in ’08. The NEWSWEEK Poll finds each of the leading Democratic contenders beating the Republican frontrunners in head-to-head matchups. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18505030/site/newsweek/

StayDuhCourse in Iraq!!! All those useless moslems are depending on us to wipe their asses for them!
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2007, 02:02 PM
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Its "Stay The Course"

It means to keep your word..not to surrender to the enemy...not to lie to your allies.

It means to be and act like an American.
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"We make war that we may live in peace"
"Peace is the highest aspiration of the American People. We will negotiate for it, sacrifice for it, we will never surrender for it, now or ever."
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2007, 02:10 PM
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StayDuhCourse Duh! Useless Iraqis need their welfare checks
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2007, 02:28 PM
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Iraqis need allies that mean what they say.
Not liars who say they are not worth fighting for in the face of al Qaeda and their allies.
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"We make war that we may live in peace"
"Peace is the highest aspiration of the American People. We will negotiate for it, sacrifice for it, we will never surrender for it, now or ever."
"Keep that faith,keep your courage,stick together, stay strong,do not yield,do not flinch,stand up,we're Americans,we'll never surrender they will"
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2007, 02:32 PM
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Default Does it matter?

His approval rating doesnt really matter since, well, he is a lame duck until he gets out of office.

And the effect on the republican's 08 election........it is not like they have a chance anyway, no matter who is the canidate.
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2007, 02:41 PM
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Originally Posted by DuH2";p=&quot View Post
Iraqis need allies that mean what they say.
Nope.

What those useless moslem iraqis need is a kick in the ass so they'll start taking care of themselves.

But that ain't gonna happen because bleedingheart neocon liberals like you and dicknbush keep wanting to breastfeed them.

Whatever.. you got till end of 2008 to teach those moslems how to defend themselves. After that, God willing, the USA can stop providing welfare services for those useless idiots that you love so much.
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