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Thread: The Medieval Warm Period – unprecedented global warming, or scientific manipulation?

  1. Default The Medieval Warm Period – unprecedented global warming, or scientific manipulation?

    I challenge the most articulate and well versed global "alarmists” in our group to correctly and objectively answer the following scientific questions.

    Did man and his deliberate combustion of fossil fuels like bituminous coal, gasoline, aviation fuel and natural gas cause the earth to warm to much higher global temperatures at the first part of the Medieval Warm Period and the conclusion of the Little Ice Age?

    None of the usual unprovoked insults and accentuated "arm waving" please. We are looking for scientific answers to these very reasonable questions.

    The idea of a medieval warm period was formulated for the first time in 1965 by the English climatologist Hubert H. Lamb [1]. Lamb, who founded the UK Climate Research Unit (CRU) in 1971, saw the peak of the warming period from 1000 to 1300, i.e. in the High Middle Ages. He estimated that temperatures then were 1-2 ° C above the normal period of 1931-1960. In the high North, it was even up to 4 degrees warmer. The regular voyages of the Vikings between Iceland and Greenland were rarely hindered by ice, and many burial places of the Vikings in Greenland still lie in the permafrost.

    Glaciers were smaller than today

    Also the global retreat of glaciers that occurred in the period between about 900 to 1300 [2] speaks for the existence of the Medieval Warm Period. An interesting detail is that many glaciers pulling back since 1850 reveal plant remnants from the Middle Ages, which is a clear proof that the extent of the glaciers at that time was lower than today [3].

    Furthermore, historical traditions show evidence of unusual warmth at this time. Years around 1180 brought the warmest winter decade ever known. In January 1186/87, the trees were in bloom near Strasbourg. And even earlier you come across a longer heat phase, roughly between 1021 and 1040. The summer of 1130 was so dry that you could wade through the river Rhine. In 1135, the Danube flow was so low that people could cross it on foot. This fact has been exploited to create foundation stones for the bridge in Regensburg this year [4].

    Clear evidence of the warm phase of the Middle Ages can also be found in the limits of crop cultivation. The treeline in the Alps climbed to 2000 meters, higher than current levels are [5]. Winery was possible in Germany at the Rhine and Mosel up to 200 meters above the present limits, in Pomerania, East Prussia, England and southern Scotland, and in southern Norway, therefore, much farther north than is the case today [6]. On the basis of pollen record there is evidence that during the Middle Ages, right up to Trondheim in Norway, wheat was grown and until nearly the 70th parallel/latitude barley was cultivated[4]. In many parts of the UK arable land reached heights that were never reached again later.

    Also in Asia historical sources report that the margin of cultivation of citrus fruits was never as far north as in the 13th century. Accordingly, it must have been warmer at the time about 1 ° C than today [7].

    Archeology and history confirm interglacial

    Insects can also be used as historical markers for climate. The cold sensitive beetle Heterogaster urticae was detected during the Roman Optimum and during the Norman High Middle Age in York. Despite the warming of the 20th century, this beetle is found today only in sunny locations in the south of England [8].

    During the medieval climate optimum, the population of Europe reached hitherto unknown highs. Many cities were founded at this very time with high-altitude valleys, high pastures and cultivated areas, which were at the beginning of the Little Ice Age again largely abandoned [9].

    The Middle Ages was the era of high culture of the Vikings. In this period their expansion occurred into present-day Russia and the settlement of Iceland, Greenland and parts of Canada and Newfoundland. In Greenland even cereals were grown about this time.. With the end of the Medieval Warm Period the heyday of the Vikings ended. The settlements in Greenland had to be abandoned as well as in the home country of Norway, during this time, many northern communities located at higher altitudes [10]. The history of the Vikings also corresponds very well to the temperature reconstructions from Greenland, which were carried out using ice cores. According to the reconstructions, Greenland was at the time of the Vikings at least one degree warmer than in the modern warming period [11].

    Climate scientists want to eliminate contradictions

    Until about the mid-90s of last century the Medieval Warm Period was for climate researchers an undisputed fact. Therefore in the first progress report of the IPCC from 1990 on page 202, there was the graphics 7c [12], in which the Medieval Warm Period was portrayed as clearly warmer than the present. However, the existence of this warm period became quickly a thorn in the side for the scientists responsible. When in 12th century without human influence the climate has been even warmer than at the height of industrialization, why should the current warming have non-natural causes?

    Thus, the Medieval Warm Period was soon declared an odious affair. Meanwhile, an e-mail is legendary, which was sent to a U.S. climate researcher David Deming [13] in 1995. This scientist published an article in the prestigious journal Science in which he had presented research on climate change in North America based on cores [14].
    With this publication, he was immediately known among climate researchers, and some of them obviously thought that he was toeing their line [13, 15]:

    Meanwhile, the climate machinery for the eradication of the Medieval Warm Period has already started. In 1995, the English climatologist Keith Briffa published in the journal Nature a study with sensational results. According to his studies of tree rings in the Siberian Polar-Ural, there had never been a Medieval Warm Period and the 20th century, suddenly appeared as the warmest of the last 1000 years [16]. The real breakthrough was the thesis of 20th Century experience as the warmest of the millennium, but not until three years later, and that with the release of Michael Mann’s infamous Hockeystick [17, 18].

    Warm period is extinguished

    In this diagram that became the icon of human-induced global warming in the 3rd IPCC Assessment Report, the Medieval Warm Period has now been completely eradicated[/B][/COLOR]. [COLOR="Navy"][B]However, this curve was quickly under attack, mainly because the Canadian mathematician Steven McIntyre had serious doubts about the correctness of the representation and those pursued with the meticulousness of an auditor [19]. McIntyre showed not only that Mann had used an algorithm that resulted in 90 percent of the cases to a hockey stick, but found also serious errors in the selection of the data and the location of places, as well as the use of incorrect data.

    Of course, the Mann’s gang could not let these allegations unanswered. In response, Realclimate.com was founded, a name intended to suggest the truth, but somehow reminiscent of the Real Ghostbusters, a poorly made copy of the genuine, which in contrast to the original only pretends to be the right thing. This webpage was henceforth used for accusations and slanders against the non-”believers” [21]. It took also increasingly care not to call McIntyre, in the meantime identified as the main enemy, by his name.

    Following the publication of Michel Mann’s hockey stick and the criticism, whole series of further studies was published to demonstrate that the results of Mann’s actually represented the real temperatures over the last 1000 years. The highpoint of the debate was the forced disclosure of the raw data from tree ring studies long held under lock and key, which served as one of the principal witnesses for the correctness of the thesis of the unusually warm 20th century. It turned out that clearly the data were selected intently to get the desired result [22].

    This survey shows one thing quite clearly. At the time of the Middle Ages, that is, from 1000 to 1300 it was almost everywhere in the world warmer than today. There have been periods of warming, that exceeded 0.6 degree Celsius rise in temperature in the 20th century and totally without the man-made increased emissions of the supposed “climate killer” of CO2. The statements, that there has not been any Medieval Warm Period, or it was merely a localized phenomenon, can safely be regarded as untenable.

    It is therefore not surprising that there are influences on the climate, which can by far exceed the CO2 as a driver of climate variability. This hypothesis is massively supported by the observations made during the last 10 years. Finally, we have been experiencing no increase since 2002, the temperatures have dropped slightly [26]. And that even though the emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels in exactly the same period increased to previously unmatched dimensions.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/2...-manipulation/
    James Cessna

    "If you give a man a fish (socialism), you feed him for a day. It you teach a man to fish (capitalism), you feed him and the people he employs for a lifetime."


  2. #2

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    The Medieval Warm Period is an established fact among scientists, as is the Little Ice Age. Both of these climate cycles dramatically changed Europe. Before the Little Ice Age, England produced quality wine that was in demand throughout Europe.
    "Monarchy considers man in his ties with society; a republic considers man independently of his relations to society." de Bonald

  3. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by three_lions View Post

    The Medieval Warm Period is an established fact among scientists, as is the Little Ice Age. Both of these climate cycles dramatically changed Europe. Before the Little Ice Age, England produced quality wine that was in demand throughout Europe.
    You are correct, three_lions.

    You notice the global "alarmists" in this group have not responded to my scientific questions for them.

    They often love to attack the "messenger", but they seldom are smart enough to refute the "messages" and the valid arguments we make against the existence of anthropogenic global warming!

    Sad. Very Sad.



    Compare the length of the “manipulated" shadow cast by the chimney and the “true” length of the squirrel’s actual shadow!
    Last edited by James Cessna; Feb 25 2012 at 08:37 PM.
    James Cessna

    "If you give a man a fish (socialism), you feed him for a day. It you teach a man to fish (capitalism), you feed him and the people he employs for a lifetime."

  4. #4
    australia au queensland
    Location: QLD, Australia, Southern Hemisphere, Earth, Sol System, Orion Spur, Milky Way
    Posts: 9,729

    Default

    Answer me this.

    Is it impossible to murder someone just because the majority of people don't die from murder?

  5. #5

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    We are still warming out of a cool period... near the end. Then we should find ourselves in another cool period. The cycle is clear. Quickly go cold... slowly warm back up... all this man made global warming is nonsense and a grasp to collect BILLIONS and levy control over the masses.
    INEPTOCRACY - A system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least like to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with the goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

  6. Default

    They once grew wheat in Greenland. When it gets warm enough for that again things will be back to normal.

  7. #7
    australia au queensland
    Location: QLD, Australia, Southern Hemisphere, Earth, Sol System, Orion Spur, Milky Way
    Posts: 9,729

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    Quote Originally Posted by HB Surfer View Post
    We are still warming out of a cool period... near the end. Then we should find ourselves in another cool period. The cycle is clear. Quickly go cold... slowly warm back up... all this man made global warming is nonsense and a grasp to collect BILLIONS and levy control over the masses.
    Your logic is flawed.

  8. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by James Cessna View Post
    I challenge the most articulate and well versed global "alarmists” in our group to correctly and objectively answer the following scientific questions.

    Did man and his deliberate combustion of fossil fuels like bituminous coal, gasoline, aviation fuel and natural gas cause the earth to warm to much higher global temperatures at the first part of the Medieval Warm Period and the conclusion of the Little Ice Age?
    Mod Edit: Flamebait and insult.
    How does the Medieval Warm Period compare to current global temperatures?

    The 'skeptic' argument...
    The Medieval Warm Period was warmer than current conditions. This means recent warming is not unusual and hence must be natural, not man-made.

    What the science says...
    While the Medieval Warm Period saw unusually warm temperatures in some regions, globally the planet was cooler than current conditions.

    One of the most often cited arguments of those skeptical of global warming is that the Medieval Warm Period (800-1200 AD) was as warm as or warmer than today. Using this as proof to say that we cannot be causing current warming is a faulty notion based upon rhetoric rather than science. So what are the holes in this line of thinking?

    Firstly, evidence suggests that the Medieval Warm Period was in fact warmer than today in many parts of the globe such as in the North Atlantic. This warming thereby allowed Vikings to travel further north than had been previously possible because of reductions in sea ice and land ice in the Arctic. However, evidence also suggests that some places were very much cooler than today including the tropical pacific. All in all, when the warm places are averaged out with the cool places, it becomes clear that the overall warmth was likely similar to early to mid 20th century warming. Since that early century warming, temperatures have risen well-beyond those achieved during the Medieval Warm Period across most of the Globe. This has been confirmed by the National Academy of Sciences Report on Climate Reconstructions. Further evidence (Figure 1) suggests that even in the Northern Hemisphere where the Medieval Warm Period was the most visible, temperatures are now beyond those experienced during Medieval times.

    Secondly, the Medieval Warm Period has known causes which explain both the scale of the warmth and the pattern. It has now become clear to scientists that the Medieval Warm Period occurred during a time which had higher than average solar radiation and less volcanic activity (both resulting in warming). New evidence is also suggesting that changes in ocean circulation patterns played a very important role in bringing warmer seawater into the North Atlantic. This explains much of the extraordinary warmth in that region. These causes of warming contrast significantly with today's warming, which we know cannot be caused by the same mechanisms.

    Overall, our conclusions are:
    a) Globally temperatures are warmer than they have been during the last 2000 years, and
    b) the causes of Medieval warming are not the same as those causing late 20th century warming.


    Figure 1: Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction by Moberg et al. (2005) shown in blue, Instrumental Temperatures from NASA shown in Red.


    © Copyright 2012 John Cook

    (In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)
    Last edited by daisydotell; Feb 26 2012 at 08:18 AM.
    "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy;
    that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."

    -- John Kenneth Galbraith

  9. #9

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    After that "hockey stick", no one's believing their "climate" models of the past, sorry!
    "We must have the clarity of vision to see the difference between what is essential and what is merely desirable, and then the courage to bring our government back under control and make it acceptable to the people." - Ronald Reagan, 1980 Nomination Acceptance Speech

  10. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Peabody View Post

    After that "hockey stick", no one's believing their "climate" models of the past, sorry!
    You are indeed correct. Professor Peabody.

    It is a well established fact there has been no global warming of the earth's environment in 15 years.

    CO2 levels have continued to rise without interruption, but we now know with the release of new temperature data that the planet has not warmed in quite a long time.

    "Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the NANA GISS and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997."

    The climate models developed by the United Nations that claimed as recently as 2007 that global warming was about to ‘come roaring' back and break the previous temperature record set in 1998 are now proven wrong and are considered today by most scientists to be highly untrustworthy.

    These models even went so far as to claim that between 2004 and 2014 there would be an overall increase in global temperatures. In 2009, these models predicted that at least three of the years 2009 to 2014 would break the previous temperature record set in 1998.

    Meanwhile, since the end of last year, world temperatures have fallen by more than half a degree as a result of re-emergence of the cold ‘La Nina’ effect in the South Pacific.

    ‘"If we don’t see convincing evidence of global warming by 2015, it will start to become clear whether the United Nations models are bunk. And, if they are, the implications for some scientists could be very serious."

    Global warming is a religion to the global "alarmists" in this group. To question its existence is to question the teachings of Mohammed and Jesus in the eyes of the most radical Muslims and fundamentalist Christians!
    Last edited by James Cessna; Feb 26 2012 at 05:37 AM.
    James Cessna

    "If you give a man a fish (socialism), you feed him for a day. It you teach a man to fish (capitalism), you feed him and the people he employs for a lifetime."

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