I think I can see Blade's point on this one.

I like that kinda thing - a "self-correcting" system.

See, I mean, I just go fuzzy all over when I think about that kinda stuff, 'cause those kinds of things always turn out to be the "simple, elegant, useful" models that I dig.

"Capitalism" is one of those. It's "operational" - it "works" - it "dovetails with human nature".

The "representative political system" based on the "consent of the governed" and some kinda "contract" in that regard, is another one of those - simple, elegant, and useful. Another Once again, it "dovetails with human nature", and therefore, it "works" - it's "operational".

I mean, I raised this analogy in another thread somewhere: if you give people a choice between "sacrifice" and "opportunity", they'll take the "opportunity" every time. In our Western world, "opportunity" is more valuable than "sacrifice", most of the time. That's how the "value system" plays into the equation.

And that's why, you'll find more left-leaning political types, attuned to the concept of "sacrifice for the greater good", and more right-leaning political types, opting in favor of "opportunity" and "independence". So, like, duh.... right? You know, the debate over "universal healthcare" is all about this difference in the "models", right? Duh....

So, you know, in the capitalist "model", the stuff that "falls between the cracks" in terms of adherence to the model (like, you know, white collar crime and stuff like that), is kinda considered a "side effect", like a "necessary evil". Whereas, in some other "value systems", that would be like, absolutely verboten and it wouldn't matter in what "context" it occurred.

So, you know, in my "personal" outlook on life, I "prefer" models that dovetail with human nature. In my "political" outlook, I demand them! I mean, I do that on behalf of We the People, when I wear my "We the People" hat, 'cause I mean, those are the models that work, right? You know, those are the models that most benefit We the People.

That doesn't mean there aren't "other" useful models though -

You know, like for instance, I've actually spent some time in a Communist country, and it's not "all that bad". You know, the people aren't "all that different". They're gonna get bent out of shape about "slightly different things" sometimes, but I mean, we get bent out of shape too, right? Lots of people "here", get bent out of shape about Islamo-Fascism, and "I", get bent out of shape went someone violates my precious political contract, so I mean, everyone's got their "boundaries", right?

So, see, in my "model", if you can understand the "tree of belief", you've got it all.

Then, you have an operational model, both in the domain of politics, and, in the domain of human nature.

And the intersection of those two domains, is exactly where you want to be, if you feel the need to "influence" a political equation. You know - once again, the "engineering" question, right? "How" do I go about changing something in a useful way, so I'm like "reasonably certain" I'm gonna get the outcome I want.

You know, like, trying to change Islam by starting wars is.... "not" a good idea. That's not gonna have the desired results, and I mean, if you understand the "belief model" in question, that's almost a no-brainer, it's like "low hanging fruit".

I mean, yeah - you know, these concepts translate, they really do.

My viewpoint is, if you're looking at this equation in the "correct" way, there's really only one model that gives you everything you need. All the others, are just "partial" models.

My claim is, that if you've got the "tree of belief", you've got "enough" to do engineering.

So, you know, there's kind of a piece "before" that though (I mean, before you're probably gonna feel confident enough in your model, to attempt any actual "engineering") - and that would be, "modeling the model". So you know, the scientists would do some kinda "computer simulation" or something like that, but in the space of politics that would be called "testing the waters on a small sample". Almost like, "market research".

But you know, if you're gonna try to hammer "democracy" down someone's throat, that would be kinda.... um.... ignorant. That would be like trying to fix a TV set, without knowing whether it works on tubes or transistors. Right?

Stop it! the pink tutu is cute.
Hmm. I don't think I am particularly smart which is why I am baffled by the fact that this thing was allowed to happen by people who DO think they are smart. I read a variety of columns /blogs written by economy watchers and they all seemed to be more concerned about the subprime risk than the Feds. People on this Forum have asked, "What could he do?" [Greenspan] Evidently, he had the power to do something. He was warned in 2004. He did nothing. Bernanke is finally beginning to institute regulations to address predatory lending.

I have bought and sold a number of homes so I have been looking at the rapidly rising home prices as astonishing and unsustainable, for some time. When my mother began to invest in R.E., the rule of thumb was that the home should earn 10% of the sale price in rents every year. (If one needed to rent it) Its been many years since that rule of thumb has been useful or relevant- everyone was depending on Vegas principles- good times will never end; just keep rolling the dice, prices will go up. I am not smart, just conservative.
Again, you don't seem to "get" what I am saying. I bought my current house for 68 grand 13 years ago. I have no idea what its worth, today. I am angry because the greed of a few people is going to add to that perfect storm of doom- high oil prices, aging baby boomers, huge deficit, now subprime debacle. It won't be pretty. If you can think of the best way to take advantage of this, let me know.

The Kenny Rogers song comes to mind:

You got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run




How can I say this - Goldman Sachs, who was one of the "biggest" holders of sub-prime, sold it all off to the Europeans and Japanese, just a couple of weeks before it became "widely known" that there was a problem with the risk.

"I" got rid of my last house "just in time", if I'd waited 30 more days I couldn't have sold it, "at all". It'd still be sittin' there on the market, or worse yet, I mighta been forced to get into some kinda sub-prime deal myself.

And then, boom, I got a massive windfall outta nowhere, and I mean, I wouldn't even have had to sell really, right? And now, I could buy any house I wanted, and pay cash for it (I'd "have to" pay cash, 'cause I have no "demonstrable income" that would satisfy a bank for a loan, nothing like a W-2 or anything).

But you see what I'm saying, right? It's all about "opportunity". But I mean, it's a full-time game. Just "watching the markets" is a full-time game, and then, you still have to have the "extra advantage" of some kinda information that the other guys don't have, if you're really gonna be able to make any serious money.

For "most" of us, the equation probably has more to do with the "safety" of your nest egg, and the "security" of the underlying principal. So I mean, the market is the worst place to be during a recession, right? And I mean, you know, if you're "physically capable" of doing so, you'd probably want to downsize into a tiny apartment or something, for a while, 'cause you're just losing money staying in a house that's losing value. You wanna sell it while its value is high, and buy again when you can get a better deal.

But I mean, "real estate" isn't homogeneous either - lots of times, when housing prices go down, land value goes up. So, like, you might look for some parcel of land that's out somewhere, but "near" something, that might be a good longer-term investment under those conditions. Tangibles are good, anything like gold or platinum, that kinda thing. Even municipal bonds are starting to look attractive, if you're in the appropriate tax bracket.

And then, 'course, there's always "small business", and there's even "moonshining"....

buyer beware. always. now if you are confronted with a mortgage broker or any other business person who engages in unlawful conduct, then seek their criminal arrest or if it is a civil violation, litigate to correct the wrong. but you seem to expect the government to know the unknowable. tell us now what is the next economic crisis that we will face as a nation ... you can't and neither should you expect anyone else to - especially not that inefficient entity which is government. protecting you is a valid government function, protecting you from making bad business decisions is not its role. monetarists might argue that doing nothing is the best thing government can do while the market corrects itself, while government intervention could likely exaggerate and prolong the economic problem.
yep, there are greedy people. always have been always will be. and yes, i agree the economic road ahead will not be painless. individuals should do what the government cannot. save more and spend less. for the least among us that is no solution, but my fear is there will soon be more who join that group known as the least among us. we seem to have the same view of the circumstances we face; our difference appears to primarily be the question of whether it is the responsibility of the individual or the government to chart a safe economic course.
regarding your home value. go to www.zillow.com and plug in your address. the stated valuation will probably be a bit on the high side but that source will identify an array of comparable properties which have recently sold. you should be able to get a good ball-park estimate of your residential property value from that site.
and finally, jake in his pink taffeta tutu is NOT a pretty sight. that's the other point in which we disagree.

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“Mayor Palin fails to have a firm grasp of something very simple: the truth.”

[Frontiersman editorial, 2/7/97]

I doubt any of you have read the Magna Carta.

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And he said unto them, Ye will surely say unto me this proverb, Physician, heal thyself: whatsoever we have heard done in Capernaum, do also here in thy country.

And he said, Verily I say unto you, No prophet is accepted in his own country.

Says Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz:

“Alan Greenspan really made a mess of all this. He pushed out too much liquidity at the wrong time. He supported the tax cut in 2001, which is the beginning of these problems [deficits didn’t matter to him, either]...He encouraged people to take out variable rate mortgages.”

Economist Bill Bonner:

"The critique we leveled against the Greenspan Fed three years ago is now widely accepted; the feds saw the little recession of ’01...and panicked. They put out too much money and too much credit for much too long, causing bubbles all over the world. So free and easy were American banks and credit institutions during this period that bank robbers stopped wearing ski masks and carrying guns; all they had to do was to ask for the money like everyone else.

The free-floating loot produced a holiday atmosphere that looked to most people like real prosperity. “See,” they said to each other, “the free market works.”

the government intervened and screwed things up. why do say you want more of that?

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“Mayor Palin fails to have a firm grasp of something very simple: the truth.”

[Frontiersman editorial, 2/7/97]

I don't think government necessarily screws things up. I think government working on behalf of a few people for the purpose of short term financial and/or political gain, screw things up. The average salary at Goldman Sacks is something like $350,000 , not including bonuses. Wouldn't they be more usefully employed as trainers of performing elephants?

You see, I am so dumb I actually think people should grow, make, repair and sell real things for compensation. The fact that people are making (and losing) vast fortunes selling financial product sausages called weird things like "S.I.V. " smells like voodoo economics to me ....But what do I know! Not much, it would seem. People are making lots of money selling virtual furniture! Maybe economies don't need real things anymore. Maybe I should bone up on my juggling skills and join the circus!

for the BUST, the bank execs profited greatly from the sub prime with their YEBs they should also take responsibilty for the bust and not take bonuses this year.

You would be better served becoming a broker or analyst. A one year Goldman Sachs internship would be worth millions.

One of my former students made his first million. He is 22 and working for Morgan Stanley. I asked him for a Ferrari, he said no.


Ixtellor

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George W. Bush "I don't think our troops ought to be used for what's called nation-building"

Blasphemy is a victimless crime.