The Bush administration has a dream for Iraq. That the country can peacefully unite into a democracy. The question is, do the separate groups in Iraq share that dream.

Iraq as a county did not spontaneously come together under some internal nationalistic drive. After WWI the victorious allies sewed the 3 separate factions together and artificially declared Iraq a country. Unfortunately no one received the Kurds permission to do this. The Kurds were dragged kicking and screaming into the union and they’re still kicking and screaming. The three parts of Iraq are essentially, the Kurds in the North, the Shias in the South and the Sunnis roughly located in the Center of Iraq.
The Kurds right now have their own regional government, education system and police force. Oh and did I mention they have an army 75000 strong which is considered the most effective indigenous fighting force in the entirety of Iraq. By the way, the Kurds will NOT give up their autonomy. Any Americans who are toying with the illusions that they will peacefully and quietly fall in line and give up control to an Iraqi central government should buy a plane ticket to Kurdistan and explore the notion with them. They’re pretty friendly towards Americans (just don’t ask them to surrender their autonomy and you’ll get along fine).

Now we come to the Shia’s. They are the majority in Iraq. (60 per cent of the population). They are an Islamic religious sect functioning as a political entity. It’s not like in the U.S. where we separate our religious affiliations from our political ties. (Although sometimes I have trouble separating the Republicans from the Moral Majority). Have you ever heard the saying “ stay away form 3 topics if you want to get along with people”? The 3 being Sex, Religion and Politics. Well in Iraq if you’re discussing religion you’re also talking about politics and if your discussing politics your also talking about religion. It’s kind of a two for one deal in the Middle East. Mixing politics with religion is a little like mixing fire and gasoline. The Shias are chomping at the bit to take the reigns of power. The other major religious faction in Iraq, the Sunnis, has subjugated them for a long time. In fact Hussein’s forces slaughtered 300,000 Shias during an attempted uprising in 1991. Hussein was a Sunni. Needless to say there is a bit of tension between the two groups. Since the Sunnis are the minority faction, they are a bit paranoid about the Shia’s probable majority control over the new government after the elections. The Shia’s will be writing the new rules and regulations of governance for Iraq once in charge. But the Shia’s will be doing this from their particular religious viewpoint. Like I said it’s hard to separate religion and politics in Iraq. The Sunnis’ may not like the Shia’s particular religious out look for the new Iraq. Add the Kurds into this volatile mix, throw in a lit match, and stand back. Way back.

Actually, its not like a believe that Iraq will suddenly erupt into violence once the election process is completed. Instead, I think there will be slow erosion between the three competing groups in Iraq. The insurgent forces will fan the embers of tension. However, the way things are going now; I think a substantial number of Sunnis will simply BOYCOTT the elections if they are held in January, thus rendering them invalid. How can a government form in Iraq, especially one trying to assemble a new constitution for the country, and be credible if a large number of one of the country’s most significant factions stays home during the election?

For those thinking I’m trying to be the bearer of bad news, I’m not. I simply believe that we cannot just Americanize a country whose history and culture is different from our own. And I believe once we stop looking at Iraq as just another American Suburb we may be able to find a solution (over the long run). I believe we should let Iraq evolve into a loose confederation of states each with their own government, education, and religious ministries. Each state would have it’s own security force. There would be a central government in this arrangement, which would be in charge of currency (monetary policy) and foreign affairs. Of course attempting to negotiate a loose confederation of states would present a different set of problems, but it would be preferable to the mess we will have on our hands if we insist on the type of future we have in mind for Iraq now. If you think this is a ridicules idea, keep in mind that the Kurds already have there own separate government and Army and NO one is going to take it away from them. At least not without a fight.

...Nice Piece.. I actually agree with a lot of what you stated. I HOPE and WISH WE ARE WRONG!!! But if anyone has studies the ME or understands a little about Islamic Culture, Religion and the Role and Importance of IRAQ (which is probably next to SA in importance), it is not at all difficult to Imagine the above scenario.

And you know what you missed if..if.. the above happens? TURKEY will definitely step in to quell those Kurds who will definitely influence the Kurds currently residing in Turkey.

Good Job...

For the sake of brevity I left out detail on the Kurds. Since 1991 Kurdistan has functioned as an independent nation. Their government controls budgets,police, educational systems, and natural resources. They will not let the Iraqi army set foot in their country. Younger Kurds don't even speak Arabic. They will definitely agitate for total Independence somewhere down the line. The city of Kirkuk is their Jerusalem and they will want to incorporate it into their country. Unfortunately the Iraqi's view Kirkuk differently and fighting could easily ensue over this city. The Turks are terrified of a united all Kurd nation and will try to make them miserable or worse.

Anyone harboring simple idealistic notions about the Iraqi region is dreaming.

I don't think anybody is expecting Iraq to look like American when it's finished. I certainly don't. And much of what it evolves into is up to the Iraqi's themselves. We're not doing it all for them. One recent positive development that gives me hope for Iraq: the fact that it was the Iraqi military that captured the al Zarqawi aide. Not us.....but the Iraqi's themselves. More successes like that leads me to believe they can do it. But nobody has ever said it was going to be easy.

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"This is a time for a national imperative not to fail in Iraq." Condoleeza Rice, January 11, 2007

It really doesn't matter who the Iraqi Army apprehends. What counts is can the 3 groups live in political and religious harmony. Will the Sunni's accept being subservient to the majority Shia's? If the Sunnis feel overwhelmed and more ot them become part of the insurgency/resistance then it only increases the number of suicide attacks. It's hard to put the fear of death into someone who is willing to kill himself for the cause to begin with. And you can only kill so many Sunnis. At some point it begins to look like genocide.

On the other hand if somewhere down the line the Kurds choose to form their own independent state you can't force them at gunpoint to stay within Iraq. As I stated in the above post the Kurds are pretty much operating as an independent political entity already. Chances are good that down the road a bit they will try for a complete break with Iraq.

You can't answers these issues by simply looking at an one Iraqi success here or an Iraqi failure there. These are long term complex issues.

They can learn to. In America, blacks were once enslaved by whites. Now we co-exist peacefully. That situation was FAR worse than the differences Iraq has now. If we can do it, why cant they?

...Religion and Politics in the ME are so intertwined (sometimes it looks that way in the US these days) that it is NOT possible to separate the two. If you understand Islam and the deep deep divide among the various sects, you will see the difference.

I am not saying its IMPOSSIBLE.. But I think too many people in this country think its just a matter of getting Kurds, Shias and Sunnis to have a convention and bury the hatchet...like CRIME BOSSES do..

It does not work like that....Not in the Muslim world...

Obviously you want Iraq to be America. And you want the Sunnies to be like African Americans. Let's see, in the U.S. it took 200 years for both races to adjust to each other in something approaching a fair and equatable way of treating each other. In that 200 years we went through Slavery, a Civil War, Jim Crow Laws, civil unrest, and civil riots. As African Americans moved from slavery to freedom to civil rights they forfeited trillions of dollars in economic opportunities some of which could have been passed on to other generations. So maybe in 50 to 100 hundred years the two contentious religious factions in the new Iraq will learn to get along. And if the Sunnies (roughly 17% of the population) feel oppressed by a large Shia majority that will control everything in Iraq due to their ability to control all things religious and political through sheer numbers, what then? What if the Sunnies don't learn to get through this or what if it takes several generations for them to. What then?