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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 02-07-2009, 07:26 AM
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Anyone with even a basic understanding of financing knows that the short term gains will be offset by long term losses. Use the simple example of buying a car. If you pay cash there is no future negative impact to your finances. If, on the other hand, you purchase a car with a loan not only is your future ability to purchase reduced by the cost of the car but also by the interest payments on the loan.

With the bailouts being funded by deficit spending not only do the People have to pay for the bailout but we also have to pay for the interest on the bailout. The cost is going to be huge because the government has never reduced the national debt so the interest payments go in indefinately. Imagine the same situation in buying a car but you only pay the interest on the loan never paying off the principle. You buy a new car this year and only pay the interest. Then in four years you buy another new car and only pay the interest. If you keep doing this eventually your entire income goes to just paying the interest on previous loans and you have nothing left to spend on the necessities. That is basically what the government is doing and they will have to continually raise the taxation to pay for the necessities which is extremely harmful to the economy and reduces private investment required to expand the GDP.

Of interest to some, the US currently spends enough on interest payments on the national debt to actually fund the entire enumerated responsibilities of the US government under the Constitution.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 02-07-2009, 07:48 AM
Micky Jay Jagger Micky Jay Jagger is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JP5 View Post
President Obama's economic recovery package will actually hurt the economy more in the long run than if he were to do nothing, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday
That's a lie. The CBO said no such thing. I know, because I actually read the report. [/quote]
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Old 02-07-2009, 07:58 AM
Micky Jay Jagger Micky Jay Jagger is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JP5 View Post
CBO, the official scorekeepers for legislation, said the House and Senate bills will help in the short term but result in so much government debt that within a few years they would crowd out private investment, actually leading to a lower Gross Domestic Product over the next 10 years than if the government had done nothing.
That's not what the report said.

The word "help" isn't even used in the report.

Here's a link to the actual report for those who seek truth and want to read it for themselves:

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/96xx/doc9619/Gregg.pdf
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Old 02-07-2009, 08:10 AM
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Your title is highly misleading. Leave it to the Washington Times to highlight only the potential negatives. First, the negatives are over-stated.

Quote:
In the long run, the economy produces close to its potential output on
average, and that potential level is determined by the stock of productive capital,

the supply of labor, and productivity.


Summary:

Quote:

CBO has developed a range of estimates of the effects of the Senate legislation on
GDP and employment that encompasses a majority of economists’ views.
According to these estimates, implementing the Senate legislation would increase
GDP relative to the agency’s baseline forecast by between 1.2 percent and
3.6 percent by the fourth quarter of 2010. It would also increase employment at that point in time by 1.3 million to 3.9 million jobs, as shown in Table 1. In that quarter, the unemployment rate would be 0.7 percentage points to 2.1 percentage points lower than the baseline forecast of 8.7 percent. The effects of the legislation would diminish rapidly after 2010. By the end of 2011, the Senate legislation would increase GDP by 0.4 percent to 1.2 percent, would raise employment by 0.6 million to 1.9 million jobs, and would lower the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points to 1.0 percentage point.


At a time of rapid job losses and a tanking economy, this is certainly what we need.

Spending would be more effective at boosting GDP than a tax cut, particularly tax cuts going to wealthier people.

Quote:
A dollar’s worth of a temporary tax cut would have a smaller effect on GDP than
a dollar’s worth of direct purchases or transfers, because a significant share of the
tax cut would probably be saved.
Infrastructure spending:

Quote:
As shown in the first two categories in the table, direct purchases of goods and
Quote:
services by governments, including investment in infrastructure, tend to have relatively large effects on GDP. Because infrastructure spending takes time to occur, increased funding for that purpose would not boost outlays or GDP much this year, but it would probably provide significant stimulus from 2010 through 2012.


Help for the unemployed:

Quote:
Transfers to persons (for example, unemployment insurance and nutrition
assistance) would also have a significant impact on GDP. Transfers have a
relatively strong effect on consumption because they tend to go to people, such as
the poor or unemployed, who are likely to spend much of any additional income.
For that reason and because transfers can be increased quickly, they are estimated
to have a significant impact on GDP by early 2010.

Here's one negative - a business tax cut:

Quote:
The provision for greater tax-loss carrybacks would result in a large up-front cost
to the government, but the effect of that provision on business spending would
probably be small because it primarily would affect firms’ after-tax income rather
than their marginal incentives for new investment. Therefore, the effect of the
provision on revenues would be significantly greater than its effect on the
economy.
Quote:

The long-term costs are directly associated with the increase to national debt. Remember, Bush and the Republicans turned a record budget surplus into a trillion dollar budget deficit. Seems a bit hypocritical for them to complain.

Quote:

In contrast to its positive near-term macroeconomic effects, the Senate legislation
would reduce output slightly in the long run, CBO estimates, as would other
similar proposals. The principal channel for this effect is that the legislation
would result in an increase in government debt.


However, note that long-term benefits offset long-term costs.

Quote:

The crowding-out effect would be offset somewhat by other factors. Some of the
Senate legislation’s provisions, such as funding for improvements to roads and
highways, might add to the economy’s potential output in much the same way that
private capital investment does. Other provisions, such as funding for grants to
increase access to college education, could raise long-term productivity by
enhancing people’s skills. And some provisions would create incentives for
increased private investment.


In contrast, Bush's trillion dollar war and tax cuts for the wealthy have not provided such long-term offsets to the debt they created.

I personally think the CBO is being a bit conservative on the positive long-term effects of parts of the stimulus. The energy provisions, for instance, will lower our demand for fossil fuels which helps the environment and makes us less dependent on foreign oil. Since economists find it difficult to measure the positive economic effects of these things, it's generally not included in such studies.

Lastly,

Quote:

More fundamentally, many things that make people better off do not appear in
GDP at all. For example, healthier children or shorter commute times can improve
people’s welfare without necessarily increasing the nation’s measured output in
the long run (though spending in those areas would still provide short-run
stimulus). Even legislation explicitly intended to affect output may also seek to
accomplish other goals and can be evaluated accordingly.


http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/96xx/doc9619/Gregg.pdf

Thus, the first line of JP5's post would be better restated as "Better do nothing, says non-partisan CBO" to "CBO ok's stimulus". In reality, they don't take a stand, but their study indicates the stimulus overall is a good thing.
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Budget surplus inherited by Bush: $236 billion (CBO, 2000)

Budget deficit inherited by Obama: $1,667 billion (CBO projection, 3/2009)
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Old 02-07-2009, 08:14 AM
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Well, well, well looks like i need to read this entire briefing from the CBO. It doesnt surprise me that some folks have skewed what they actually said in the report. Thanks to those posters that actually posted the correct link and a brief overview on it!
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Old 02-07-2009, 04:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micky Jay Jagger View Post
That's a lie. The CBO said no such thing. I know, because I actually read the report.
[/quote]

"CBO, the official scorekeepers for legislation, said the House and Senate bills will help in the short term but result in so much government debt that within a few years they would crowd out private investment, actually leading to a lower Gross Domestic Product over the next 10 years than if the government had done nothing."
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Old 02-08-2009, 09:19 AM
Micky Jay Jagger Micky Jay Jagger is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stekim View Post
I've stated repeatedly on here that the stimulus is not a good idea because the cost will outweigh the benefit.
A 1.2 percent to 3.6 percent increase in GDP (relative to the CBO baseline forecast of GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2010, plus 1.3 million to 3.9 more million jobs (than the baseline forecast of total jobs) for the fourth quarter of 2010, are positive economic benefits that will greatly outweigh the negative economic impact of a measly one to three tenths of one percent decrease in the CBO base line estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2019.
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Old 02-08-2009, 09:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Peabody View Post
Democrats had better hope for 4th of July Spectacular results from their stimulus plan (not going to happen)
Why won't the plan work?
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Old 02-08-2009, 09:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JP5 View Post
CBO, the official scorekeepers for legislation.
That's funny, I wonder what a search of that office on this forum will reveal about how conservatives feel about it.

My guess is.......you hated them.

Another case of hypocrisy.
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Old 02-08-2009, 09:29 AM
Micky Jay Jagger Micky Jay Jagger is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JP5 View Post
...it really hurts us in the long run.....by crowding out private investment.
CBO’s basic assumption is that, in the long run, each dollar of additional debt crowds out about a third of a dollar’s. CBO has incorporated both more and
less crowding out into its range of estimates of the long-run effects of the Senate legislation. The CBO's estimates of the long run effects of the Senate legislation are:
On the up side: A 1.2 percent to 3.6 percent increase in GDP (relative to the CBO baseline forecast of GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2010, plus 1.3 million to 3.9 more million jobs (than the baseline forecast of total jobs) for the fourth quarter of 2010

On the down side: A one to three tenths of one percent decrease in the CBO base line estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2019.

Last edited by Micky Jay Jagger; 02-08-2009 at 09:34 AM.
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