Iran Initiated Israel Terror Attack, Hariri Assassination


By Jonathan Ariel
Special to the Israel News Agency

Jerusalem----March 2.....Iran was the prime mover behind both the recent assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri and Saturday night's suicide terror attack in Israel. Syria was a willing accomplice to the attack on a Tel Aviv restaurant, and to what, if any degree it was involved with the former is still unclear.

A credible Israel military intelligence source has told the Israel News Agency (INA) that although both Washington and Jerusalem are well aware of Iran's role, both countries, in coordination with France and the UK, have decided to put emphasize Syria's role, in order to increase pressure on Damascus.

France wants to reassert its traditional presence and influence in Lebanon presence, and this means getting Syria out of the country. In addition, France and most other EU countries are gravely concerned over Syria's willingness to allow her Iranian ally to establish military bases on the Lebanese coast. This would give Iran an outlet to the Mediterranean, the first time since Alexander the Great that Persia would have direct access to the Mediterranean Sea, enabling it to pose a direct threat to Europe.

The Bush administration has made no secret of its antipathy towards Syria terrorism, due to its support for terrorist movements such as Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and its ongoing cooperation with the Sunni insurgents in Iraq. Forcing Damascus out of Syria would put increased pressure on the already shaky Syrian economy, which survives in large part thanks to the resources it is able to siphon off from Lebanon, thanks to its occupation of the country.

According to the source in Israel, there has been a major debate going on in both Jerusalem and Washington which country to target first, Syria or Iran. Supporters of the former course say that Syria, very much the junior partner of the Teheran-Damascus axis, is more vulnerable to pressure, and this increases the chances of being able to get Syria to renounce its alliance with Teheran without having to resort to military force.

Such an outcome would spell the death knoll for the Iraqi insurgence, which could not survive without the logistical and financial support Syria has been providing. It would also leave Iran totally isolated, bereft of its Syrian ally and facing an Iraq in which the Sunnis have reentered political life, strengthening moderate forces opposed to the establishment of a Shiite dominated theocracy.

Such an outcome, the Europeans believe, would make Teheran more amenable to diplomatic pressure to cease its clandestine nuclear weapons program, rendering military action unnecessary.

Proponents of the alternate course say that it makes more sense to go for Iran, since once Iran collapses, Syria, highly dependent on Iranian economic and military aid, will collapse with it. Attacking Syria first, they say, merely means postponing the inevitable, since a military strike will be the only way to ensure Iran does not join North Korea as a nuclear armed rogue state.

The die was cast during Bush's European trip, and fell on the Syrian side. Two factors weighted it in that direction. The first was a desire to avoid reopening the rift with Europe. The second was to get Syria to cease its support of the Sunni insurgency, facilitating Sunni participation in the country's political establishment. Since the Sunni's tend to be relatively secular, they would increase the strength of the moderate forces which oppose establishing a state based on Shaaria.

Blaming Syria for both incidents marks the opening of the campaign designed to force Damascus out of Lebanon. Once this has been achieved, the Assad regime will be between the proverbial rock and a hard place, having to choose between the US and Iran, both of which will be in a position to play a good cop bad cop game with Syria. President Bush today demanded that Syria get out of Lebanon, saying the free world is in agreement that Damascus' authority over the political affairs of its neighbor must end now.

He applauded the strong message sent to Syria when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier held a joint news conference on London on Tuesday.

"Both of them stood up and said loud and clear to Syria, 'You get your troops and your secret services out of Lebanon so that good democracy has a chance to flourish," Bush said during an appearance at a community college in Maryland to tout his job training programs.

The world, Bush said, "is speaking with one voice when it comes to making sure that democracy has a chance to flourish in Lebanon."

The president's words, following those from Rice and others in the Bush administration this week, amount to the strongest pressure to date on Syria from Washington.

Rice, in London to attend an international conference on Palestinian security and government reform, had said Tuesday that Syria is "out of step" with a growing desire for democracy in the Middle East.

The Bush administration also on Tuesday blamed terrorists based in Syria for last week's deadly suicide attack in Israel.

On the one hand, the US will proffer a carrot, in the form of economic aid sufficient to ensure its survival, in return for renouncing its alliance with Iran and ending all support for the Iraqi insurgents. The stick of military action will also be in clear sight.

Iran, fearing total isolation will pressure Assad to stand firm. It will offer increased military and economic aid, while at the same time threatening to turn Hezbollah and Pasderan forces stationed in Lebanon against Syria, replacing a Syrian occupation of Lebanon with an Iranian one.

If Damascus refuses Uncle Sam's carrot, it will have no choice but to become even more dependent on Iran. The more dependent on Iran it becomes, the more it risks a conflict with both Israel and the US.

Iran, fearing Syria was about to sell it out to the US, responded by initiating the two attacks it knew Syria would be blamed for. Iran wants to see Syria out of Lebanon, as this would increase Syria's economic dependency on Teheran, and enable Lebanon's Shiites, the largest single ethnic group with the best armed militia (Hezbollah), to dominate Lebanese politics.

Hariri's assassination was intended to generate a momentum that would expedite Syria's exit from Lebanon, and it looks like it has succeeded. The Hezbollah initiated suicide bombing in Tel Aviv, and other terror attacks in Israel which have been foiled, were intended to sabotage US efforts to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian breakthrough, which would give impetus to democratic reform throughout the region, which the mullahs of Teheran fear above all else.

The US, Israel and the European are aware of this, but for now it suits everyone's' purposes to have Syria in the dock.


ISRAEL NEWS AGENCY