Silver price watch
I figure it's time for one...
$42.08...up $1.39 (over 3%)
Gold and silver have been FAR outperforming the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P 500, etc. for over 3 years now.
And with Bernanke saying the Fed is holding rates near zero until 2013 - that trend should continue (with ups and downs, of course) for some time.
If you do not have a substantial portion of your 'portfolio' in gold/silver, imo, you either have inside information about something or are economically foolish.
And, in my opinion, don't listen to your broker if he/she is telling you not to buy gold/silver or to diversify (i.e. buy stocks, bonds, cash equivalents, etc.).
One) they are probably economic dumb dumb's. And 2) they probably don't make much (if anything) on you buying and holding physical gold/silver - so of course they don't want you buying much/any.
Just go and buy them yourself - it's relatively easy if not down right simple.
And if you don't know when to sell?
As soon as the Fed STARTS raising interest rates relatively aggressively...then sell - IN MY OPINION.
NOTE: I AM NO EXPERT.
Last edited by DA60; Aug 19 2011 at 08:36 AM.
Some people are reluctant to invest in more commodities at this point because they fear they've missed the bubble. However, I'd argue that the Fed increasing the interest rate doesn't have a 1:1 correlation with the fall of the value of precious metals.
I believe that a better indicator of when gold/silver prices will stabilize will be if/when the dollar begins to regain value, as I believe that the huge rise in the price of gold/silver is as a result of folks wanting to hedge risk with the dollar not doing so hot.
And how exactly do you see the gov't./Fed raising the value of the dollar?
Originally Posted by Anikdote
The main way I am aware of is through less 'money printing'. And I have seen no serious sign from either that they intend to do that anytime soon.
I am also skeptical of them since it seems obvious to me that they both seem to want a weaker U.S. dollar so as to monetize the debt (among possible other reasons).
The simply answer is what you point out, decrease the supply of money, I do have to admit here that another avenue to this could be increasing interest rates to renew interest in investment.
Originally Posted by DA60
I also think, that even if interest rates remain low if consumers regain faith in the economy increased circulation could make the dollar seem attractive again to both internal and external investors.
The last time gold and silver absolutely collapsed was in 1980 when the Fed finally got serious about the then incredibly high inflation and really poured on the interest rate hikes.
Sure there were other reasons, but that was, imo, the main catalyst for the collapse...the reason to own gold/silver was taken away.
Yes, gold/silver took a big (temporary) hit when everyone fled to the dollar in '08.
It was not that the dollar got stronger because of anything fundamentally good about it...people just fled to it like crazy because everything was collapsing around them and they had virtually no where else to put it.
That could happen again.
But, unless the dollar gets fundamentally stronger, I see it as once again a temporary condition.
And I do not see the dollar getting fundamentally stronger so long as rates are near zero and the gov't./Fed keep massive deficit spending/'money printing'.
And, as you point out, raising interest rates could spur on savings.
Though frankly, I am much more concerned about inflation.
I believe the CPI is a semi-joke and that actual inflation is actually much higher then what the Fed/gov't. wants people to believe.
And it is that factor more then anything that will - in my opinion - force the Fed to eventually raise interest rates.
And when they do - then I think it is time to get out of gold/silver.
ESPECIALLY silver as it is FAR more volatile then gold.
But again...I AM NO EXPERT.
Last edited by DA60; Aug 19 2011 at 10:31 AM.
Silver is at $42.37...
Good day for silver today...so far
Silver is a roller coaster...so it could come back down any minute.
You definitely have to have a strong stomach (imo) to own silver.
But if you are not prepared to take a loss...you probably should not be investing.
Last edited by DA60; Aug 19 2011 at 10:52 AM.
It closed(?) at $42.86...up $2.17
Last edited by DA60; Aug 19 2011 at 12:48 PM.
Aug 21 2011, 12:22 AM
Back in '08, the dollar was the safety net and I no longer believe that it is. Things have changed, we've printed a lot of money. Gold is becoming the safety net play. Every major down drop these past few weeks, gold up, dollar, well it hasn't fared as well. The dollar is losing its safety net value. This will continue, gold will be double what it is now 3 years from now at least. We have a hectic few years ahead of us. Most political discussions are a farce because there is only one way to pay even a minute amount of our debt back, and thats inflation. When you run trillion dollar budget deficits, its a massive task just to break even for one year, nonetheless actually pay some debt off.
Originally Posted by DA60
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