Thread: Jim Rogers: 100% chance of another 2008 crash

Originally Posted by jmpet

How nice of you agree with your own post.

Time to shake up the chicken roost!

I can also predict a crash will happen between now and 2050 with 100% certainty- it's not insight, it's how cycles work.

I love how crashes are now a part of our natural "cycle"...

Government economics works so well.

Originally Posted by Roon

You also must not be a fan of simple math.

Not when it comes to describing a complex economy such as ours, no.

When you have credit card debt, do you feel it a good idea to take out more debt to pay your current debt?

Irrelevant since governments aren't like people with credit card debt. But in fact, yes, it is a good idea to take on more debt if it's at a lower rate -- and in fact the US can now borrow money at historic lows.

Also it makes sense to borrow more money to increase your income -- say by buying a car so you can get a better job by commuting.

This little charade only lasts as long as people are willing to lend you the money or have the money to lend you. Eventually the lack of production and capital catches up to you as it becomes politically prohibitive to simply continue to print money. When this happens the music stops and the whole thing comes crashing down. We are nearing this point, the fact that "rescue plans" and emergency bailouts are being talked about just reiterates the fact that the end of near.

The only thing simple here is your simplistic attempt to pretend that macroeconomic forces reward thrift. That's silly.

Originally Posted by bacardi

you already know my date as I have been posting it hear for over a year now....2012 or 2013....I cant see it drag on any later than that!

Something tells me next year you'll be postponing doomsday. As usual. It's an austrian school habit.

Originally Posted by Landru Guide Us

Something tells me next year you'll be postponing doomsday. As usual. It's an austrian school habit.

Of course I don't have a crystal ball but I can't see the chinese constantly propping up the dollar indefinately! The trend is clear.....but I guess to clueless people the trend is always cloudy

Originally Posted by bacardi

Of course I don't have a crystal ball but I can't see the chinese constantly propping up the dollar indefinately! The trend is clear.....but I guess to clueless people the trend is always cloudy

If the dollar isn't "propped up," our exports skyrocket. But of course the value of the dollar is much more complex than Chinese monetary policy.
<<<Mod Edit: Personal Attack Removed>>>

Originally Posted by Landru Guide Us

If the dollar isn't "propped up," our exports skyrocket. But of course the value of the dollar is much more complex than Chinese monetary policy.
<<<Mod Edit: Personal Attack Removed>>>

your exports skyrocket? LOL what would you export as most manufacturing is outsourced now? Would you export haircuts and hamburger flippers maybe?

Originally Posted by bacardi

your exports skyrocket? LOL what would you export as most manufacturing is outsourced now? Would you export haircuts and hamburger flippers maybe?

Pssst: that's the point. If the dollar is cheap, manufacturing investments flows to the US, just like it did to China when the dollar was dear. You're just not much on econmic dynamics, are you?

Originally Posted by Landru Guide Us

Pssst: that's the point. If the dollar is cheap, manufacturing investments flows to the US, just like it did to China when the dollar was dear. You're just not much on econmic dynamics, are you?

Maybe you would care to explain - if your theory is correct - how the dollar index in April was 10% lower then it is now (i.e. the dollar was 10% cheaper) BUT imports in October are actually up 1%?


It should also be noted that during this April/May time of a cheap greenback - the May trade deficit was the largest since 2008.

And since the dollar index has risen (i.e. the dollar is more valuable), the trade deficit has fallen sharply...by over 10%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0004.html

Originally Posted by DA60

Maybe you would care to explain - if your theory is correct - how the dollar index in April was 10% lower then it is now (i.e. the dollar was 10% cheaper) BUT imports in October are actually up 1%?


It should also be noted that during this April/May time of a cheap greenback - the May trade deficit was the largest since 2008.

And since the dollar index has risen (i.e. the dollar is more valuable), the trade deficit has fallen sharply...by over 10%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0004.html

I don't need to explain this at all. The dollar fluctuates. You and bacardi are the Tea Baggers who think that the dollar will collapse.

If it does, like I say, manufacturing will explode in the US. That's how it works.

Originally Posted by Landru Guide Us

I don't need to explain this at all. You and bacardi are the Tea Baggers who think that the dollar will collapse.
If it does, like I say, manufacturing will explode in the US. That's how it works.

Then why did the dollar index in April was 10% lower then it is now (i.e. the dollar was 10% cheaper) BUT imports in October are actually up 1%?

And why during this April/May time of a cheap greenback - the May trade deficit was the largest since 2008?

And why since the dollar index has risen (i.e. the dollar is more valuable), the trade deficit has fallen sharply...by over 10%?

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0004.html