Thread: Jim Rogers: 100% chance of another 2008 crash

Originally Posted by Landru Guide Us

Pssst: that's the point. If the dollar is cheap, manufacturing investments flows to the US, just like it did to China when the dollar was dear. You're just not much on econmic dynamics, are you?

now you are contradicting yourself......first you say the economy and the dollar is strong and now you are saying that a cheap dollar will bring back industrial jobs.....in order to bring back industrial jobs the dollar would have to lose at least half its value!

Originally Posted by DA60

Maybe you would care to explain - if your theory is correct - how the dollar index in April was 10% lower then it is now (i.e. the dollar was 10% cheaper) BUT imports in October are actually up 1%?


It should also be noted that during this April/May time of a cheap greenback - the May trade deficit was the largest since 2008.

And since the dollar index has risen (i.e. the dollar is more valuable), the trade deficit has fallen sharply...by over 10%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0004.html

the dollar needs to be a heck of alot lower than it is now in order to bring back industrial jobs,,,,,,not easy to compete with 1 dollar per hour jobs LOL!

Originally Posted by Landru Guide Us

I don't need to explain this at all. The dollar fluctuates. You and bacardi are the Tea Baggers who think that the dollar will collapse.

If it does, like I say, manufacturing will explode in the US. That's how it works.

for once I agree with you LOL

But first the dollar "MUST" collapse and then yes......jobs will return!

Originally Posted by DA60

So are you saying that a weak dollar does not help exports unless the dollar falls 'a big deal'?

You heard it here folks.

And how low on the dollar index do you call a 'big deal'?


BTW - I am not a Tea Bagger.

I would say the dollar must fall enough to make us rich in gold and silver

Originally Posted by Landru Guide Us

Yeah, just like that.

You attempted to make the point that if something is complex simple math does not apply. I was just pointing out how stupid that sounds.

Simple: the borrowed money goes to productivity, resulting in more jobs, more economic growth, more tax revenues, with which we pay off the debt.

This is of course what we did at the end of WWII.

No it isn't. We SLASHED government spending at the end of WWII. We had a lot of factories and plenty of fresh from Europe troops to work in them. Nobody had to ration anymore and demand boomed both in Europe and at home. The factories supplied that demand and had plenty of freshly unemployed troops to staff them. None of this happened with borrowed money, it was the private sector taking care of business and they had the money to do it because of a record high savings rate post WWII to the tune of 25%.

And it's what every company does if it wants to modernize: it borrows, invests in productivity, pays off the debt and has more profit.

Or you can simply save your money and just take a little longer to do it but not owe anyone money. That is of course the smart way to do it.

See: 2+2 =4. But in this case it's not four, due to the multiplier effect. It's more like 50.

It's only 50 because you owe most of that to someone at interest.

Originally Posted by Roon

You attempted to make the point that if something is complex simple math does not apply. I was just pointing out how stupid that sounds.

Your point failed.

No it isn't. We SLASHED government spending at the end of WWII. We had a lot of factories and plenty of fresh from Europe troops to work in them. Nobody had to ration anymore and demand boomed both in Europe and at home. The factories supplied that demand and had plenty of freshly unemployed troops to staff them. None of this happened with borrowed money, it was the private sector taking care of business and they had the money to do it because of a record high savings rate post WWII to the tune of 25%.

BUZZZZ. You lose. Spending was pretty level after WWII, what with the GI bill and the Marshal Plan and the Interstate Highway bill.

We did cut the military and we should do that now too. Military spending is mostly dead weight on the economy (which is another instance showing how conservatives don't understand basic economic principles)

Or you can simply save your money and just take a little longer to do it but not owe anyone money. That is of course the smart way to do it.

Nope, that's the stupid way. Using this silly procedure, by the time you get the money the oppurtunity is gone. If you have to save up to buy a car to take a more lucratic job in another city, the job will be gone. If you borrow, buy the car, take the job, pay off the car, you're wealthier, the lender is wealthier and there is more tax revenue. Savvy?

Here's a concept: credit is a good thing and the basis of modern economic wealth. It's another instance showing how conservatives don't understand basic economic principles.

It's only 50 because you owe most of that to someone at interest.

Not when rates are at historic lows like are they are now. Tea Baggers want to borrow when rates get high. That's another reason conservative don't understand basic economic principles.

Originally Posted by bacardi

for once I agree with you LOL

But first the dollar "MUST" collapse and then yes......jobs will return!

So you DO think the dollar will collapse. Or you don't.

Which is it man!

Originally Posted by Landru Guide Us

Your point failed.

How do you figure?

BUZZZZ. You lose. Spending was pretty level after WWII, what with the GI bill and the Marshal Plan and the Interstate Highway bill.

We did cut the military and we should do that now too. Military spending is mostly dead weight on the economy (which is another instance showing how conservatives don't understand basic economic principles)

How can spending be level when we slashed military? If your idea's on how the macro economy works it would have made sense to simply move that Military spending into the domestic economy...but we didn't, why do you suppose that is?

I noticed you had nothing to say in regards to the private sector and the record high savings rate leading to the economic recovery. Hard to argue with the truth eh?

Nope, that's the stupid way. Using this silly procedure, by the time you get the money the oppurtunity is gone. If you have to save up to buy a car to take a more lucratic job in another city, the job will be gone. If you borrow, buy the car, take the job, pay off the car, you're wealthier, the lender is wealthier and there is more tax revenue. Savvy?

No, not savvy. What if you borrow apply for the job and don't get it. Now you are REALLY poor. Just like when you borrow trillions to create jobs but no jobs get created.....now you are up (*)(*)(*)(*) creek without a paddle. Whereas if you would have just spent what you already KNOW you have and not relied upon factors outside your control on the gamble that your future will be better you would never lose.

Here's a concept: credit is a good thing and the basis of modern economic wealth. It's another instance showing how conservatives don't understand basic economic principles.

Oh I understand them better than you it would seem. You are just misguided into thinking that credit is what makes the world go round. You can live really well off credit for a while and I suppose on paper you could figure a way to live on nothing but credit if the stars aligned and everything went your way...but that cannot be counted upon. That is why a high savings rate will always be superior to credit. Anything worth having is worth waiting for.

Not when rates are at historic lows like are they are now. Tea Baggers want to borrow when rates get high. That's another reason conservative don't understand basic economic principles.

Rofl, I am not sure you understand much of anything. Unless the interest rate is 0 you are being taken advantage of.

Originally Posted by Landru Guide Us

So you DO think the dollar will collapse. Or you don't.

Which is it man!

It's going to collapse, although Europe will go first.

It's going to be the Euro failing or the $700 trillion derivative bomb that is going to take everything down. The anticipation is killing me.

Originally Posted by Landru Guide Us

So you DO think the dollar will collapse. Or you don't.

Which is it man!

LOL don't you read my posts? I have been saying for over a year now that there will be a liquidity crisis hitting the US in the next few years and yes the dollar will collapse and gold will explode in price!