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Old 06-26-2008, 07:26 AM
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We all know that the future belongs to Solar, the question is will we get there in prosperity and in style, or will we let the Democrats get us there, beaten broken and in misery.

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Old 06-26-2008, 07:45 AM
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Nobody let me in on the future belonging to solar power...
Maybe in Arizona but not in my state!
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Old 06-26-2008, 09:55 AM
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Originally Posted by JavaBlack View Post
Nobody let me in on the future belonging to solar power...
Maybe in Arizona but not in my state!
Well, this is according to Futurist Kurtzwiel who predicted the fall of the Soviet Union.

Keep in mind that they're developing new Solar Technologies that have incredible efficiencies, even on Cloudy days.

If Solar continues to double in efficiency every 2 years, just like computers and just like it has for the past 20 years, then:
  • Within 5 to 6 years, most new homes will begin to be made with Solar Integrated and providing about half to 3/4 the power they need.
  • Within 8 to 10 years, most people will begin to buy Panels, to replace most of their energy from the Grid.
  • Within 15 to 20 years Nano-Engineered Fuel Cells should be efficient enough to allow all electric and Solar long range Auto's to be cheaply made.
  • Within 15 years Gas stations will begin to disappear, especially in the South (temperate areas) as more and more cars will be sold using very little to zero gas, (Hybrids will still be popular up north because of high electricity requirements for Heaters - Internal combustion engines produce a lot of heat).
  • Wthin about 20 years Nano-Engineered Fuel Cells will start to completely replace the Power Grid, being recharged during the daytime Solar.
  • Within about 20 years, almost all new construction will not require hookup to the Ancient Power Grid.

All of this will cost us less, much less than what we're paying now. Think of Computers and how you now have what was considered a $100,000.00 Super Computer 20 years ago, you now have sitting on your desk. It will be the same with Solar. What costs today 35K to give a house 5 to 6K watts of power will cost in the future a 1/10 of that giving you 3 to 4X the power.
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Old 06-26-2008, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by NoSocialism.com View Post
If Solar continues to double in efficiency every 2 years, just like computers and just like it has for the past 20 years, then:
Well, see... this is where I see the problem.
That logic doesn't actually follow. The pattern of efficiency in computers is in no way predictive of the increasing efficiency of other technologies.
There is no guarantee that solar power will increase in efficiency anymore at all (it most likely will, but there's no guarantee).

For that matter, I tend to cheerlead for Fusion... which is also not guaranteed to ever become efficient.

But when it comes down to it, I don't think we can really know what the future is. When oil becomes too scarce, we may be forced to rely on bio-fuels for lack of alternatives. Probably not, but there really is no guarantee we will see something better.

Of course we should still continue trying... I just wouldn't put too much faith in any one type of power source. All we know is that eventually we will have to drastically cut oil use and that we need to drastically clean up coal emissions or get away from coal.
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Old 06-26-2008, 01:27 PM
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Well, see... this is where I see the problem.
That logic doesn't actually follow. The pattern of efficiency in computers is in no way predictive of the increasing efficiency of other technologies.
There is no guarantee that solar power will increase in efficiency anymore at all (it most likely will, but there's no guarantee).
It's already happening. Solar panels are made of Silicon, the same materials that Computer chips are made of and a lot of the advancements in computer chips can actually be applied to Solar.
If you look at the progression of Solar, a system that today produces about 5000 watts, costs around $34,000.00 and will take up about the entire roof of an average home. The same system 20 years ago would have cost 3.4 Million Dollars and take up almost 20 times more space. In other words, manufacturing costs are down to 1% of what they were 20 years ago.

The progression of this technology has been very linear, and has mirrored that of the computer industry, which is, it has been doubling in efficiency every 2 years.
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Originally Posted by JavaBlack View Post
For that matter, I tend to cheerlead for Fusion... which is also not guaranteed to ever become efficient.
Fusion is kind of scary, while a FULL Scale Nuclear Meltdown, (Like Chernobyl, not like 3 Mile Island) would mean an area about a fourth the size of NY would have to be evacuated, if a Chernobyl ever happened with Fusion, an area the size of Massachusetts would be rendered uninhabitable.
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Originally Posted by JavaBlack View Post
But when it comes down to it, I don't think we can really know what the future is. When oil becomes too scarce, we may be forced to rely on bio-fuels for lack of alternatives. Probably not, but there really is no guarantee we will see something better.

Of course we should still continue trying... I just wouldn't put too much faith in any one type of power source. All we know is that eventually we will have to drastically cut oil use and that we need to drastically clean up coal emissions or get away from coal.
Even if it took twice as long, we have about a 200 year supply of coal if we turned it into oil, and it only costs about $50.00 a barrel to do so. It's what the Nazis did during WWII since no one would sell them oil.

Also, even though we can't tell what the future holds exactly, I think that this particular technology can be tracked very easily. Computer Chip manufacturers often put out price lists 6 months in advance, because they're betting that a particular technology will continue to get more efficient and the margins will increase. The same will happen with solar.
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Old 06-26-2008, 02:14 PM
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The progression of this technology has been very linear, and has mirrored that of the computer industry, which is, it has been doubling in efficiency every 2 years.
That is not linear.
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Old 06-26-2008, 02:55 PM
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That is not linear.
Straight line up, you know what I mean
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Old 06-26-2008, 03:03 PM
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Straight line up, you know what I mean
It simply isn't linear.

1 3 5 7 9 11

1 2 4 8 16 32

doesn't fit into mx+b.
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Old 06-27-2008, 07:12 AM
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It simply isn't linear.

1 3 5 7 9 11

1 2 4 8 16 32

doesn't fit into mx+b.
OK, then, what's the word that I can use that won't make people's heads explode? Geometric Progression?
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Old 06-27-2008, 07:15 AM
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Originally Posted by SpankyTheWhale View Post
It simply isn't linear.

1 3 5 7 9 11

1 2 4 8 16 32

doesn't fit into mx+b.
What are you? A Math teacher?
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