Survivor!

The GOP Victory
By JIM MCTAGUE

JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.


Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.

Is our method reliable? It certainly has been in the past. Using it in the 2002 and 2004 congressional races, we bucked conventional wisdom and correctly predicted GOP gains both years. Look at House races back to 1972 and you'll find the candidate with the most money has won about 93% of the time. And that's closer to 98% in more recent years, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Polls can be far less reliable. Remember, they all but declared John Kerry president on Election Day 2004."



http://online.barrons.com/public/art..._free_features

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"If the President simply adds a couple of Republican solutions to a trillion dollar health care package that the American people don't support, it isn't bi-partisan. It's political cover," Rep Eric Cantor (R-Va.)

What did you expect from Baron's?

Do you think the market will celebrate if the Dems win the House?

Oh oh....

Of course the market wouldn't "celebrate" if the Dems win. Everyone knows the market would be depressed as hell at the thought of higher taxes, etc.

But that doesn't mean that Baron's is making this up. They are basing their analysis on what they've based it on in the past. And I'm sure you read their record.

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"If the President simply adds a couple of Republican solutions to a trillion dollar health care package that the American people don't support, it isn't bi-partisan. It's political cover," Rep Eric Cantor (R-Va.)

"based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data"

how foolish.

at least this story didn't come from a blogger.

I was expecting another JP5 post that went:

"Righty Predicts GOP Hold Both House & Senate "

Well, I sure hope Baron's is right for the SAKE OF THE COUNTRY.

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"If the President simply adds a couple of Republican solutions to a trillion dollar health care package that the American people don't support, it isn't bi-partisan. It's political cover," Rep Eric Cantor (R-Va.)

When you get away from the hype you notice alot of it is hype.
The Barrons article is likely very close to what is going to occur.

"When you get away from the hype you notice alot of it is hype.
The Barrons article is likely very close to what is going to occur. "

those two sentences go well together, sir.

Yep.

The difference between this article in Barrons and the Hype in general is notable.

Another question is that do they deserve to win..

If the only reason to the victory is this...

...we can hardly talk of neither justice or democracy..

Or I guess, we can still talk about democracy ~ people's power, but very dump people's power.. What kind of sense does it make to only elect the candidates with most money.. Especially as the candidates who enjoy the economic advance tend to enjoy it, because the greater favouring of the corporate interest groups.. I guess, either the people simply love the corruption ~ the candidates being most bribed by the lobbyists; or they have some serious weakness for campaign adverstising - the one that is bought by the mentioned money..

And since the prediction value is 93-98%, the question is about some serious addiction to corruption or some major brainwashed-sheep-disorder..

- BtD

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"Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows."
[George Orwell, 1984]

LOL watch out fox news, it's Righty - the new republican news source

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"In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." - Nietzsche