Thread: Electoral Map: Not Good News for Obama

The Real Clear Politics map looks pretty reasonable to me. It shows Obama with 221 likely or leaning electoral votes and Romney with 170. I think if either candidate wins any of the states that are listed as leaning to the other that candidate would be virtually certain to win. The 147 toss up votes on the map are AZ,CO,FL,IA,MI,MO,NV,NH,NC,OH, VA, & WI. I think that AZ,MO,NC definitely lean towards Romney but by less than the states Real Clear Politics list as leaning to him. I think that MI,VA,WI definitely lean towards Obama just like AZ,MO,NC lean towards Romney. My own judgment is that CO & NV lean very slightly towars Obama but by very close margin. FL is probably in this category for Romney. I also think the 1 electoral vote in NE which Obama won in 2008 leans to Romney. This leaves IA,NH, & OH as true tossups. If I allocate the votes this way the count is Obama 275 Romney 235, True tossup 28. If CO,NV & FL are allocated as tossups the count is Obama 260 Romny 206, Tossup 72. If I had to give a map with no tossups I would allocate IA,NH & OH to Obama for a result of Obama 303-Romney 235.

The last time I checked intrade Obama was a 52.7-47.3 favorite to win (I don't participate in this market as I don't think it right to bet on elections). I think Obama is a definite favorite and my estimate is that he is about a 60-40 favorite as of now.

Originally Posted by JP5

The 2012 electoral map does not favor Obama....and he and his staff know it. There are many states he stands a good chance of losing....but few, if any, he can shift the other way......

"The emerging electoral map illustrates a dynamic even Democrats privately concede: Obama’s path to victory will be narrower than it was in 2008 when he scored a 365-electoral vote victory over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) thanks to a massive fundraising edge, Bush fatigue and a struggling economy. There are many states, such as Indiana, that Obama could lose that he won in 2008, but few he could shift the other way. "

"The (Obama) map is going to be smaller than 2008,” said one Democratic fundraiser who has been briefed by 2012 Obama campaign officials.

Taken collectively, the battleground states represent the cross pressures facing the two parties as they look forward to the 2012 election. In Florida, Nevada, and Ohio, the economy continues to lag badly, presenting the Obama political team with a major challenge."

"As evidence of the GOP’s momentum, Wiley noted that since 2008, Republicans have won a Senate seat, four governor’s races, seven state legislative chambers and 17 House seats in those nine states combined

“His (Obama’s) path to re-election must go back through those states, but his prospects there are far from certain,” wrote Wiley. “In only two and a half years, his position in those states, and in many others, has deteriorated dramatically, and Republican strength is in plain view.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...YMH_story.html

this thread would be good news if it said ELECTORAL MAP,NOT GOOD FOR OBAMA "OR" ROMNEY since nothing will change with establishment head Romney in there who is just another black Obama.

Originally Posted by Rollo1066

The Real Clear Politics map looks pretty reasonable to me. It shows Obama with 221 likely or leaning electoral votes and Romney with 170. I think if either candidate wins any of the states that are listed as leaning to the other that candidate would be virtually certain to win. The 147 toss up votes on the map are AZ,CO,FL,IA,MI,MO,NV,NH,NC,OH, VA, & WI. I think that AZ,MO,NC definitely lean towards Romney but by less than the states Real Clear Politics list as leaning to him. I think that MI,VA,WI definitely lean towards Obama just like AZ,MO,NC lean towards Romney. My own judgment is that CO & NV lean very slightly towars Obama but by very close margin. FL is probably in this category for Romney. I also think the 1 electoral vote in NE which Obama won in 2008 leans to Romney. This leaves IA,NH, & OH as true tossups. If I allocate the votes this way the count is Obama 275 Romney 235, True tossup 28. If CO,NV & FL are allocated as tossups the count is Obama 260 Romny 206, Tossup 72. If I had to give a map with no tossups I would allocate IA,NH & OH to Obama for a result of Obama 303-Romney 235.

The last time I checked intrade Obama was a 52.7-47.3 favorite to win (I don't participate in this market as I don't think it right to bet on elections). I think Obama is a definite favorite and my estimate is that he is about a 60-40 favorite as of now.

This is one of the best posts I've seen here. Logic and reason support by facts and strong sources. I agree with you completely but would add that Obama WAS trading at 57+ until Wisconsin and opening his fat mouth about the public sector being fine. Plus every major corporation and millionaire has been stepping up to buy a piece of Romney lately. Finally, Romney has not stepped on his tongue lately.
It will be EXTREMELY close.
I think that barring an X-Factor, Obama can recover and take it. As was evidenced with Hillary (no teleprompter), he does extremely well in debates and that was an area in which Romney suffered most during the primaries.
I think Obama will probably hold but the good news for the GOP is they'll keep the house and probably split or get an edge in the senate.

Last time I checked the Red, Blue and undecided states, Obama starts with 247, Romney 206 - 270 needed to win. Advantage goes to the Democrats. But it is looking like WI will go Red. Romney needs to win a bunch of undecided states - doable but not a slam dunk. Still a long ways till November.

Romney desperately needs Ron Paul's blessing. Obama desperately needs to catch a break.

Originally Posted by 1984society

Snicker.... not if the illegials are granted amnesty.. which might happen.

The 2012 Election will not be determined by the legitimate vote of honest, legally registered voters, but rather by how much election fraud the newly renamed and Obama Administration federally funded ACORN can create in FRAUD VOTE in swing states.

This embarrassment to democracy will turn on how willing we are to stand up to “you’re a RACIST” retorts when challenging blatant voter fraud.

In a previous election, someone coined the phrase;” It’s the Economy Stupid!”

Well, in 2012, “It is the FRAUD VOTE Stupid!”

It is as simple as that…

According to this map, Obama is doing fine.

http://www.electionprojection.com/20...resident12.php

Originally Posted by stekim

According to this map, Obama is doing fine.

http://www.electionprojection.com/20...resident12.php

Never saw or heard of that site before. I think Obama will barely eek it out because he hasn't done any real hardcore campaigning yet and people forget how strong he was debating against Hillary. It's still anyone's game though.

"The (Obama) map is going to be smaller than 2008,” said one Democratic fundraiser who has been briefed by 2012 Obama campaign officials.

I'd think this was sort of a no-brainer. The honeymoon has long passed, as well as the national attitude toward President Bush. By some miracle, the economy didn't turn around in 4 years... *shrugs*

Originally Posted by JP5

The 2012 electoral map does not favor Obama....and he and his staff know it. There are many states he stands a good chance of losing....but few, if any, he can shift the other way......

"The emerging electoral map illustrates a dynamic even Democrats privately concede: Obama’s path to victory will be narrower than it was in 2008 when he scored a 365-electoral vote victory over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) thanks to a massive fundraising edge, Bush fatigue and a struggling economy. There are many states, such as Indiana, that Obama could lose that he won in 2008, but few he could shift the other way. "

"The (Obama) map is going to be smaller than 2008,” said one Democratic fundraiser who has been briefed by 2012 Obama campaign officials.

Taken collectively, the battleground states represent the cross pressures facing the two parties as they look forward to the 2012 election. In Florida, Nevada, and Ohio, the economy continues to lag badly, presenting the Obama political team with a major challenge."

"As evidence of the GOP’s momentum, Wiley noted that since 2008, Republicans have won a Senate seat, four governor’s races, seven state legislative chambers and 17 House seats in those nine states combined

“His (Obama’s) path to re-election must go back through those states, but his prospects there are far from certain,” wrote Wiley. “In only two and a half years, his position in those states, and in many others, has deteriorated dramatically, and Republican strength is in plain view.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...YMH_story.html

If I'm looking at things correctly, it's June. You should probably look to see what the washington post says in November. Just sayin and all

Originally Posted by NoPartyAffiliation

Never saw or heard of that site before. I think Obama will barely eek it out because he hasn't done any real hardcore campaigning yet and people forget how strong he was debating against Hillary. It's still anyone's game though.

Well, yes, that map is as of today. It's been very accurate in predicting local and state races and ballot issues. But November is a long way off in political time. The thing is, nearly all the electoral votes are already in the bank. It's really a very small election. A few states. And right now Obama leads in more than Romnet does, so as of today he would win. November? Who knows. I don't care either way.