Thread: Are the Wheels Falling Off the Obama Wagon?

Originally Posted by Krypt

Seriously??? You want to argue about something I agreed with you on?? Really? Wow...talk about narcissism!!

You posted a group of meaningless numbers and won't acknowledge your error. You didn't "agree" with me, you screwed up. Wow...talk about narcissism!! Wow...talk about BRILLIANT!!

Originally Posted by Dan40

You posted a group of meaningless numbers and won't acknowledge your error. You didn't "agree" with me, you screwed up. Wow...talk about narcissism!! Wow...talk about BRILLIANT!!

lol...if you say so...

Originally Posted by Krypt

lol...if you say so...

I feel like a Boy Scout helping a troubled child cross the street.

Dissecting your post:

RCP Average 5/29 - 6/12 -- 45.7 44.9 Obama +0.8
Rasmussen Tracking 6/10 - 6/12 1500 LV 44 48 Romney +4

Is there any correlation between those 2 polls? NO there is not, they are 2 different polls taken in relatively the same time period. One is taken of RV, Registered Voters, the other is taken of LV, Likely Voters


Reuters/Ipsos 6/7 - 6/11 848 RV 45 44 Obama +1

What exactly is this poll telling us?

6/7-6/11 the dates encompassing the poll.
848, the number of Registered Voters polled.
RV, means Registered Voters.
45, the number of those RV's favoring b.o. in the 6/7 - 6/11 time period, ONLY.
44, the number of those RV's favoring R in the 6/7 - 6/11 time period, ONLY.
Obama +1, the number of RV's polled that favor b.o. over the number polled that favor R.

RCP Average 5/29 - 6/12 -- 45.7 44.9 Obama +0.8
Rasmussen Tracking 6/10 - 6/12 1500 LV 44 48 Romney +4
Reuters/Ipsos 6/7 - 6/11 848 RV 45 44 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking 6/6 - 6/12 3050 RV 46 45 Obama +1

Is there one shred of information here that indicates either candidate is gaining or losing from previous polls? NO!

IF

you had posted something like:


Gallup Tracking 6/6 - 6/12 3050 RV 46 45 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking 6/1 - 6/6 3125 RV 47 44 Obama +3*
Gallup Tracking 5/26-6/1 3072 RV 48 43 Obama +5*
* hypothetical numbers
That would indicate that Romney was increasing in the Gallup poll and that b.o. was going down.

But your "agreement" showed NONE of that.
FINIS

Originally Posted by Dan40

I feel like a Boy Scout helping a troubled child cross the street.

*Sigh*....I feel the same

Ok...pay attention...I'm going to break this down real easy for you...ok??

The current RCP average listed is for the time frame of 5/29 - 6/13...remember...5/29 - 6/13

What I had posted were poll tracking results for 6/6 and higher

If you average out the numbers for the most recent poll tracking results....they are LOWER than the average for the results from 5/29 to 6/13

That means that as of recent...his numbers are DROPPING.

So...the RCP average for 5/29-6/13 shows Obama with an average of 45.7

The average for poll results from 6/6 to 6/13 shows Obama with an average of 45....that's a .7 LOSS....

You don't always need a full set of numbers and weeks and weeks of past data to determine what's happening. That's what statistics and probability theory is about...


***By the way...if you are desperately trying to find a way to cling onto the hope of you still being correct...I've already broken down the previous week (5/29-6/6) by itself. He was rated at 46.2...guess what...it's still a loss with the current time frame rating...

Originally Posted by Krypt

*Sigh*....I feel the same

Ok...pay attention...I'm going to break this down real easy for you...ok??

The current RCP average listed is for the time frame of 5/29 - 6/13...remember...5/29 - 6/13

What I had posted were poll tracking results for 6/6 and higher

If you average out the numbers for the most recent poll tracking results....they are LOWER than the average for the results from 5/29 to 6/13

That means that as of recent...his numbers are DROPPING.

So...the RCP average for 5/29-6/13 shows Obama with an average of 45.7

The average for poll results from 6/6 to 6/13 shows Obama with an average of 45....that's a .7 LOSS....

You don't always need a full set of numbers and weeks and weeks of past data to determine what's happening. That's what statistics and probability theory is about...

***By the way...if you are desperately trying to find a way to cling onto the hope of you still being correct...I've already broken down the previous week (5/29-6/6) by itself. He was rated at 46.2...guess what...it's still a loss with the current time frame rating...

..I've already broken down the previous week (5/29-6/6) by itself. He was rated at 46.2...guess what...it's still a loss with the current time frame rating... "

Congratulations, this post contains ONE correct statement. ALL the rest is desperate, incorrect nonsense.

Originally Posted by Dan40

..I've already broken down the previous week (5/29-6/6) by itself. He was rated at 46.2...guess what...it's still a loss with the current time frame rating... "

Congratulations, this post contains ONE correct statement. ALL the rest is desperate, incorrect nonsense.

As I said before....if you say so.....I've already explained it to you. It's common sense. Now do you want to keep trying to convince yourself you're right or do you want to get back on topic??

Originally Posted by Talon

Good analogy.

It looks like Obama's already trying to dam that landslide. We've already seen Booker and Clinton walk back their remarks, which makes you wonder what was said to them behind closed doors (?).

I would have liked to have been a fly on those walls...

I would suspect, nothing was said to them behind closed doors. Statements like this from Progressives/Liberals/Democrats is par for the course. Sound bite one thing, walk it back later. Both sound bites float around forever. Dual duplicious messages gives them their constant "out" when held accountable.

Designer statements.