Indeed, b/c of what you say (extreme polarization, most decided), the old models don't work. This ought to be tight the whole way.

That said, the Gallup poll ought to worry the Kerry folks a bit.

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Polls, Shmolls


http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.j...toryID=5837616
Post-Convention Polls Mixed on Kerry Bounce
Sun Aug 1, 2004 05:26 PM ET


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New polls gave a mixed picture on whether Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry got a "bounce" from the party's convention, and a CNN-USA Today Gallup poll on Sunday even showed the Democratic ticket trailing the Republicans' among likely voters.
But a Newsweek poll released on Saturday said Kerry gained a four-point boost in the polls from the Democratic National Convention held last week in Boston.

Kerry had been hoping for a measurable surge in public approval, known as a bounce, which sometimes has given nominees a double-digit boost in the polls following their four days in the spotlight at the convention.

Democrats this year have said the closely divided electorate and relatively small number of undecided voters made a big bounce unlikely.

The CNN-USA Today poll of about 1,000 respondents conducted on Friday and on Saturday showed President Bush garnering 50 percent to 47 percent for Kerry among likely voters. Bush trailed Kerry among likely voters earlier in July, 47 percent to 49 percent.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader garnered 2 percent.

In the Newsweek poll conducted on Thursday and on Friday, Kerry received 49 percent of the vote to Bush's 42 percent and 3 percent for independent candidate Nader. In early July, Kerry led Bush 47 percent to 44 percent, with Nader at 3 percent.

Without Nader in the race, Kerry led Bush in the new poll by 51 percent to 45 percent. The poll of about 1,000 registered voters had a 3 percent margin of error.

Either way, Kerry said he wasn't paying attention.

Appearing on "Fox News Sunday" with his running mate, Sen. John Edwards, he said he remembered the polls last year that showed his presidential bid staggering.

"Polls are not what's important. What's important is what we're going to do for America," Kerry said.

"I don't read polls. I really don't. They are going to go up and down. They're going to change," he added.

But a senior Kerry adviser was dismissive of CNN-USA Today poll's finding, saying it appeared to be an aberration. He cited the Newsweek poll that did show a bounce, with Kerry's image improving and a weakening in Bush's approval ratings.

"The CNN-USA Today poll does show that the race continues to be close, which everyone expected, and shows Kerry being increasingly trusted by voters on key issues," he said. "The poll does show a 'bump' for Kerry on trust on the issues and while Bush is stagnant or slipping on the economy, Iraq and terrorism, Kerry moved up during convention week."

Conventions are often the first time the general public tunes into a presidential race, and polls have shown many Americans are still unfamiliar with Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator, decorated Vietnam War veteran and former prosecutor.

The CNN/USA Today Gallup poll had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Among registered voters, Kerry received 50 percent to 47 percent for Bush. That compared with 49 percent for Kerry and 45 percent for Bush earlier in the month. (With additional reporting by Patricia Wilson)

© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.

Kerry may not be good, but at least he is running against Bush. This presidential election really could be called "Dumb and Dumber". As such, neither side will get a big advantage from the stumbles of the other side.

Kerry and Bush both ensure that this presidential race resembles a special olympics event more than anything else.

At the end of the day, its all going to come down to whoever can do a better job of turning out their base to vote.

@DanM -

LOL!!!

I know how you feel. It's not even the Lesser of 2 evils anymore, it's the evil of 2 lessers.

I saw today where in 1992, Bill Clinton got a 16-point bump after the DNC convention.

The 11 minute video fo the Kerry Iraq Flip Flops has just started making its rounds this past week. After it makes its way around....and everyone has a chance to see Kerry's own words over the years, they'll know for sure. That John Kerry does not take a stand on anything....unless it's politically expedient for him. When other people have a change of position, they can at least explain it. John Kerry can NOT.

turned many, otherwise sane and likeable people, into irrational bloodthirsty monsters

looks as if Kerry will have to turn to the right to get any swing in voters, while Bush will have to swing to the left to do likewise

"I am a president of peace"

guess who speaking at madison square garden? Guiliani/mcCain & Arnie , all from the hard right-wing sector of the party

one thing for sure, Kerry is hindered badly by not being allowed to spend money for a month,

If I lived in pa/Oh/Fl I'd probably consider moving out , considering the amount of political bombardment

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