Looking at the election results for 2004 (Bush vs Kerry):

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...ti=G&cn=1&tf=l

It's safe to say that the McCain will win these states:

State - Margin of victory (Bush vs Kerry)
---------------------------------------
Alaska - 26.8%
Alabama - 25.7%
Arkansas - 9.8%
Arizona - 10.4%
Georgia - 16.7%
Idaho - 38.1%
Indiana - 20.9%
Kansas - 25.7%
Kentucky - 19.8%
Louisiana - 14.5%
Missouri - 7.3%
Mississippi - 20.0%
Montana - 20.5%
North Carolina - 12.5%
North Dakota - 27.4%
Nebraska - 33.5%
Oklahoma - 31.2%
South Carolina - 17.2%
South Dakota - 21.5%
Tennessee - 14.3%
Texas - 22.9%
Utah - 44.7%
Virginia - 8.7%
West Virginia - 12.7%
Wyoming - 39.9%


And Obama will win these states:

State - Margin of victory (Bush vs Kerry)
---------------------------------------
California - 10.3%
Connecticut - 10.3%
District of Columbia - 80.0%
Delaware - 7.5%
Hawaii - 8.7%
Illinois - 10.2%
Massachusetts - 25.1%
Maryland - 12.4%
Maine - 8.8%
New Jersey - 6.2%
New York - 17.3%
Oregon - 3.9%
Rhode Island - 20.6%
Vermont - 20.2%
Washington - 6.9%


So out of 51 electoral voting areas, 40 are already decided. I don't see anything changing how they will vote unless McCain or Obama has something extremely tragic or unexpected revealed.


That leaves 11 states that will be highly competetive:


REP winners last time:

[EC] State - Margin of victory (Bush vs Kerry)
--------------------------------------------------
[9] Colorado - REP - 5.2%
[27] Florida - REP - 5.0%
[7] Iowa - REP - 0.9%
[5] New Mexico - REP - 1.1%
[5] Nevada - REP - 2.6%
[20] Ohio - REP 2.5%


DEM winners last time:

[EC] State - Margin of victory (Bush vs Kerry)
--------------------------------------------------
[21] Pennsylvania - DEM - 2.2%
[10] Wisconsin - DEM 0.4%
[17] Michigan - DEM - 3.4%
[10] Minnesota - DEM - 3.5%
[4] New Hampshire - DEM - 1.3%

Total Electoral College count last time was 286 votes REP vs 252 DEM. The electoral vote representations for each state is not changing until 2010, where REP states (like TX) are expected to get more representation and DEM states (like NY) are expected to lose some (due to population increases or losses as a percentage of the entire US population).

I really don't see any of the DEM states switching to REP. There is just too much negativity in the air and people want change for the sake of change. Wisconsin, maybe, because it was so close last time, but I don't see it happening. If McCain destroys Obama in some debates, maybe, but I don't expect it.

Assuming Obama holds all the previous DEM states:

If Obama gets Florida or Ohio he wins.
If Obama gets Colorado and 2 of (Iowa / New Mexico / Nevada) he wins.
If Obama gets Iowa and New Mexico and Nevada he wins (269 vs 269 tie, house of rep. votes for Obama).

I have a feeling that Obama will lose Florida, but win in Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada, and become president, regardless of what Ohio does. Colorado probably stays with McCain but the margin of victory will continue to get smaller in that state.

I'm not sure what to make of this, except that if Obama wants to win, he should make a list of all the democrat leaders in those highly contested states, pick the most popular one of all, one with just a massive approval rating and liked by everyone, and have him be his VP. I don't know who the governor of Ohio is, but Florida's governor is popular and loves McCain that's for sure, and I'd be surprised if he wasn't McCain's choice for VP.

I am not a fan of either party, just looking at the past and forecasting it to the future.

Thoughts?

Obama gets 1 Republican for every 2 Democrats McCain gets. Or iow McCain has almost double opposite party voters.
McCain beats Obama in Independents.
Obama doesn't stand a chance in getting any of the states you mentioned him getting.

The "change" thing is already becoming a running joke...
In fact I think he's going to have a problem even holding on to Hillary supporters if he gets the nomination.

__________________
McCain/Palin 2008
"We make war that we may live in peace"
"Peace is the highest aspiration of the American People. We will negotiate for it, sacrifice for it, we will never surrender for it, now or ever."
"Keep that faith,keep your courage,stick together, stay strong,do not yield,do not flinch,stand up,we're Americans,we'll never surrender they will"
http://members.cox.net/neddy/bobhope_kerfuffles.wmv
http://youtube.com/watch?v=RnfflRNpwKA
http://youtube.com/watch?v=j-QYIP7o2-A

running jokes get by, look at the bush admin. look at iraq, lol.

mccain cannot beat obama.

__________________
https://www.voteforchange.com/

using the year 2000 patterns is like using the tactics of the last war to fight this one !!

__________________
"I will not take the low road to the highest office in the land" - Guess Who? You go it !

I think Obama threw away Florida when he changed his stance on seating their delegates.

Assuming that Obama will win is assuming that the media adoration will continue all the way to November. That's a long time. Sooner or later, someone will say, "the emperor has no clothes" and Obama will be left standing there buck naked. The only question is when?

__________________
Do you know what it's like to fall in the mud and get kicked... in the head... with an iron boot? Of course you don't, no one does. It never happens. It's a dumb question... skip it.

and mccains clothes: an ensemble of the poor judgment that lead to iraq. he got it at ross, do you love it?

__________________
https://www.voteforchange.com/

Obama didn' have much if any chance with Flroida this year..no Democrat did.

Obama's stance on talking with anyone no matter what and lifting the embargo on Cuba( he tried to wishy wash on this but nobody bought it) sealed Florida for McCain.

__________________
McCain/Palin 2008
"We make war that we may live in peace"
"Peace is the highest aspiration of the American People. We will negotiate for it, sacrifice for it, we will never surrender for it, now or ever."
"Keep that faith,keep your courage,stick together, stay strong,do not yield,do not flinch,stand up,we're Americans,we'll never surrender they will"
http://members.cox.net/neddy/bobhope_kerfuffles.wmv
http://youtube.com/watch?v=RnfflRNpwKA
http://youtube.com/watch?v=j-QYIP7o2-A

How do you know?

If you look at the primaries so far Obama's getting more votes than McCain. Look at Missouri for example. It's a super tuesday state with a pretty good cross section of the country, and both sides have an open primary. Obama got 405,284 votes while McCain only got 194,304 votes. Overall, GOP candidates got 584,618 votes, but the Dems got 820,453 votes. More people are voting for Democrats already. Why doesn't this translate into more votes in the General election?

Overall, people are excited by the Democrats - more-so than the Republicans.

__________________
"Masters of War" by Bob Dylan
"When a man assumes public trust, he should consider himself as public property"
-Thomas Jefferson
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
-Albert Einstein
"One man with courage is a majority"
-Thomas Jefferson

Only thing to add to Ozek's post is I think Obama can take Virginia. Although it's early, I he's ahead by 6 in a recent SurveyUSA poll and that state has shown signs of turning blue in recent years. McCain should have an advantage in Florida, in part because of the demographics there.

__________________
See, free nations are peaceful nations. Free nations don't attack each other. Free nations don't develop weapons of mass destruction.

- G.W. Bush, 10/3/2003

The problem with Virginia is that Jim Webb is probably more conservative than McCain. I don't see them going as far left as Barack.

__________________
Do you know what it's like to fall in the mud and get kicked... in the head... with an iron boot? Of course you don't, no one does. It never happens. It's a dumb question... skip it.