I agree polls are BS.. most if not all polls had Obama within 5 points of Hillary yet she wont by 9.2 points. Those polls were off by 4.2%. Apply that to all running polls for the next primaries and you will see who will win and who will lose. I predict Hillary will get 42% of NC and 48% of Indiana.

The only 100% accurate stat


100% of all people will eventually die.

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America's Enemies Are Not Mine

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“I contend that we are both atheists. I just believe in one fewer god than you do. When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours.” - Stephen Roberts.

Poll data is useful as evidence, but that is it. More often than not, polls are generally correct. Just dont rely on them absolutely.

Reputable polls try to sample a random portion of the population (typically a few thousand people or less) and then extrapolate that data to the rest of the country. Since they are randomly sampling, any result is technically possible. But the idea is that because it is random, you are getting an accurate microcosm of the country on a given issue.

Which is true. So polls are likely to be correct in general, but you never know since it is random. If you do a poll on slavery (for example) it is mathematically possible to get 1000 pro-slavery people in a random poll, even if it is extremely unlikely. The poll would show that America is pro-slavery, and the poll would be wrong.

For that reason, whenever I quote polls I try to quote several at once. An isolated poll is better than nothing, but still not proof of anything. 4 or 5 independent polls that say the same thing however, are likely to be correct.

So I accept polls as evidence to support an argument. Just not conclusive proof of an argument.

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