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Old 06-04-2008, 02:49 PM
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Default Obama Could not Beat Clinton on Straight Up Votes

Obama Won On Points

Thus, Obama has won the Democratic nomination not because his voting coalition is larger than Clinton's. As best we can tell, they are of equal size. Instead, Obama has won because his coalition is more efficient at producing delegates than Clinton's coalition. Obama's relatively narrow vote lead has produced a relatively wide pledged delegate lead, which has in turn produced an even wider lead in superdelegates. The following chart indicates this point by measuring the number of votes per pledged delegate. The idea here is that, the lower the number of votes per pledged delegate, the more delegates a single vote produces for the candidate, and therefore the more efficient a candidate's coalition is.

As we can see - Obama's voters are worth more delegates. Put precisely, there are 10,237 voters for every Obama pledged delegate and 10,807 voters for every Clinton pledged delegate. That's a difference in Obama's favor of 570 voters per delegate. That might not seem like it would make a big difference, but it most certainly has. If the "votes per pledged delegate" metric were equal for Clinton and Obama - Obama's pledged delegate lead would drop from 106 to 12.



[Note that the popular vote used in the above chart does not include the Michigan vote while the delegate counts do include the Michigan delegates. This was done to account for the fact that the Rules and Bylaws Committee did not use the Michigan vote to estimate the delegate allocation. If we were to include the Michigan vote by allocating to Obama the uncommitted, Obama's voters actually become more efficient.]

Does any of this mean that Clinton, not Obama, "should" be the nominee? No. By our imperfect metrics for measuring the opinions of the public, we must conclude that there is no clear public choice......."

".....This was a highly intelligent strategy, but it was not a grand feat of majority building. Obama supporters need to recognize that their candidate won not because "the people had their say," but because his campaign out-smarted her campaign. Accordingly, they need to respect the candidate whom they could not beat in a straight-up fight for votes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/hor...bamas_tko.html
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Old 06-04-2008, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by catalinacat View Post
Obama Won On Points

Thus, Obama has won the Democratic nomination not because his voting coalition is larger than Clinton's. As best we can tell, they are of equal size. Instead, Obama has won because his coalition is more efficient at producing delegates than Clinton's coalition. Obama's relatively narrow vote lead has produced a relatively wide pledged delegate lead, which has in turn produced an even wider lead in superdelegates. The following chart indicates this point by measuring the number of votes per pledged delegate. The idea here is that, the lower the number of votes per pledged delegate, the more delegates a single vote produces for the candidate, and therefore the more efficient a candidate's coalition is.

As we can see - Obama's voters are worth more delegates. Put precisely, there are 10,237 voters for every Obama pledged delegate and 10,807 voters for every Clinton pledged delegate. That's a difference in Obama's favor of 570 voters per delegate. That might not seem like it would make a big difference, but it most certainly has. If the "votes per pledged delegate" metric were equal for Clinton and Obama - Obama's pledged delegate lead would drop from 106 to 12.



[Note that the popular vote used in the above chart does not include the Michigan vote while the delegate counts do include the Michigan delegates. This was done to account for the fact that the Rules and Bylaws Committee did not use the Michigan vote to estimate the delegate allocation. If we were to include the Michigan vote by allocating to Obama the uncommitted, Obama's voters actually become more efficient.]

Does any of this mean that Clinton, not Obama, "should" be the nominee? No. By our imperfect metrics for measuring the opinions of the public, we must conclude that there is no clear public choice......."

".....This was a highly intelligent strategy, but it was not a grand feat of majority building. Obama supporters need to recognize that their candidate won not because "the people had their say," but because his campaign out-smarted her campaign. Accordingly, they need to respect the candidate whom they could not beat in a straight-up fight for votes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/hor...bamas_tko.html
Isn't this due to the caucus states which he swept through? I believe at caucuses each person's vote was worth much more than during a primary due to lower turnouts on both sides.

Obama's ground campaign was much more organized (and by much more organized I mean that Clinton essentially ignored caucus states) thus he got more DPV (delegates per vote, aren't I clever?) in caucuses. He didn't cheat or do anything wrong, he just played the game better.

I don't see what your point is. It's nothing that we didn't already know. As for the popular vote argument, it's not useable because we don't know how many people would have voted for him or any other candidates in Michigan, and caucus states don't record their turnouts.
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Last edited by Badgered Mushroom; 06-04-2008 at 02:54 PM. Reason: Afterthought.
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Old 06-04-2008, 03:10 PM
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Isn't this due to the caucus states which he swept through? I believe at caucuses each person's vote was worth much more than during a primary due to lower turnouts on both sides.

Obama's ground campaign was much more organized (and by much more organized I mean that Clinton essentially ignored caucus states) thus he got more DPV (delegates per vote, aren't I clever?) in caucuses. He didn't cheat or do anything wrong, he just played the game better.

I don't see what your point is. It's nothing that we didn't already know. As for the popular vote argument, it's not useable because we don't know how many people would have voted for him or any other candidates in Michigan, and caucus states don't record their turnouts.

I'm posting an article from RealClear Politics, they are making the point and I am agreeing with it. If you already knew this, than good for you.

The disrespect Hillary gets from some barack supporters, not all, seem to indicate otherwise.
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Old 06-04-2008, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by catalinacat View Post
I'm posting an article from RealClear Politics, they are making the point and I am agreeing with it. If you already knew this, than good for you.

The disrespect Hillary gets from some barack supporters, not all, seem to indicate otherwise.
That's because some Obama supporters (and quite frankly some Clinton supporters) are rabid lemmings, or they just let their emotions get the best of them.

I'm an Obama supporter, and I'm relatively tame, I think. I like Hillary, too, I just like Obama more.
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Old 06-04-2008, 07:03 PM
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you're talking about disrespect Hillary supporters get from Obama supporters, catalina? what about the other way around - aren't we just a bunch of sheep worshiping an empty suit?
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Old 06-04-2008, 07:23 PM
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I believe it was the Hillary supporters flaming and lashing out at the democratic committee which decided how MI and FL votes would be handled. It was reported that Hillary supporters were very nasty and aggressive, going as far as threating to move over to the Republican or Independent party. Hillary supporters also accused Obama of being a Muslim, homosexual, not black enough, and many other nasty accusations.
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