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Old 06-15-2008, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by E_Pluribus_Venom View Post
so if we can dismiss one poll because we favor another.... that cators to the viewpoint of who will become our next POTUS, how useful are polls at this point in time?
Polls are useless at this time. John Kerry got a 19 point bump after he secured the nomination and lost. The best part is it is a nation-wide poll and that is completely useless. Al Gore - majority of the vote but lost the electoral college.

Obama will lose the electoral college.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 06-15-2008, 10:53 AM
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and how useful is speculation? We can sit here and say "McCain will lose this"... "Obama will lose that". lol if a poll is useless at this point (where pretty much everything is up in the air"... "Obama will lose the electoral college" is just loose talk ...or wishful thinking.
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 06-15-2008, 10:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by E_Pluribus_Venom View Post
and how useful is speculation? We can sit here and say "McCain will lose this"... "Obama will lose that". lol if a poll is useless at this point (where pretty much everything is up in the air"... "Obama will lose the electoral college" is just loose talk ...or wishful thinking.
I see that you agree with my point, so I agree with you.
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Old 06-15-2008, 11:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by E_Pluribus_Venom View Post
and how useful is speculation? We can sit here and say "McCain will lose this"... "Obama will lose that". lol if a poll is useless at this point (where pretty much everything is up in the air"... "Obama will lose the electoral college" is just loose talk ...or wishful thinking.
We know that real America does not agree with racism and socialism, so we know Obama will ultimately fail.
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Old 06-15-2008, 02:32 PM
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Far more accurate than a poll of 800 people....
That depends entirely on how they got their sample. Since it's an online poll, theres pretty much no chance of a random sample.

So no, it's not accurate. At all. Thats obvious by just looking at the map.
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Old 06-15-2008, 03:16 PM
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Obama does win the District of Columbia.
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Old 06-15-2008, 03:19 PM
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id say maybe half the voters will actually sit down and look at the policies. thats split vote 50/50. some like obama, some like mccain.

40 percent will vote on image and overall appeal. this is heavy obama. 30-10 is generous here.

10 percent might vote on race although key numbers ive seen lead me to believe that factor is overblown. ill say 10 though just to be on the big side. out of that 10 percent, say 8-2 mccain.

i think itll end up being something like 57 43 obama.


intrade
obama 61.2
mccain 34.3
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 06-15-2008, 03:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tropolis View Post
id say maybe half the voters will actually sit down and look at the policies. thats split vote 50/50. some like obama, some like mccain.

40 percent will vote on image and overall appeal. this is heavy obama. 30-10 is generous here.

10 percent might vote on race although key numbers ive seen lead me to believe that factor is overblown. ill say 10 though just to be on the big side. out of that 10 percent, say 8-2 mccain.

i think itll end up being something like 57 43 obama.


intrade
obama 61.2
mccain 34.3

I disagree on the image factor, McCain has a very positive image and possiblity better than Obama considerign the whole rev. wright factor.
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Old 06-15-2008, 03:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tropolis View Post
id say maybe half the voters will actually sit down and look at the policies. thats split vote 50/50. some like obama, some like mccain.

40 percent will vote on image and overall appeal. this is heavy obama. 30-10 is generous here.

10 percent might vote on race although key numbers ive seen lead me to believe that factor is overblown. ill say 10 though just to be on the big side. out of that 10 percent, say 8-2 mccain.

i think itll end up being something like 57 43 obama.


intrade
obama 61.2
mccain 34.3
nobody ever wins by 14 points.
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Old 06-15-2008, 03:28 PM
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My Prediction: McCain 51, Obama 48, others 1.
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