Obama and the Latino Vote

A national survey of Latino voters, conducted as the Democratic primary season ended, shows Democratic presidential Candidate Sen. Barack Obama with a big lead over Republican nominee-in-waiting Sen. John McCain.

The survey of 800 Latin voters in 21 states found that 60 percent planned to vote for Obama, compared to 23 percent for McCain, with 16 percent undecided.

The poll, Latino Decisions, is a joint effort between Pacific Market Research and University of Washington political scientists Matt Barreto and Gary Segura. Barreto has previously overseen polls on Washington's gubernatorial race and state issues.

Among Democrats surveyed, 57 percent had supported Hillary Clinton in the just-concluded Democratic race, while 35 percent backed Obama.

The Hispanic vote is credited with giving Clinton a win in California, and a narrow popular vote victory in Texas. She won in Arizona and New Mexico, two states with large Latino populations.

According to the poll, results "clearly suggest the Latino vote was not anti-Obama during the primaries.

The poll showed Obama with a 66-20 lead among California Latinos, a 61-22 advantage among Texas' Hispanic voters, and a 57-31 lead in four Southwest states -- Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico -- which may become key battlegrounds.

In Florida, where Cuban-Americans have voted Republican for years, Obama and McCain are virtually tied among Latinos.

The poll's margin of error is 3.5 percent.

The Hispanic vote has been a pivotal factor in America's 21st Century elections. A substantial portion of the Latino vote went to President Bush in 2004, securing the president a razor-thin victory in New Mexico.

In 2006, however, Hispanics swung back to the Democrats: Two House seats in Arizona, where immigration was a major issue, flipped from Republican to Democrat. So did a Texas district that hugs the U.S.-Mexico border. Democrats won gubernatorial races in Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado.

The Latino vote has steadily increased, from 5.9 million in 2000 to 7.6 million in 2004, with a 9 million total forecast for this year.

The figures in the poll may not be cast in stone.

By virtue of his past, moderate stand on immigration, McCain has won substantial Latino support in his home state of Arizona.

The Obama campaign yesterday delivered a key staff appointment to Patti Solis Doyle, formerly Clinton's campaign manager. Doyle will be chief of staff to the Democrats' vice presidential nominee, once he or she is selected.

Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, the country's most prominent Hispanic officeholder, delivered a key endorsement to Obama late in the primary season.