Most of the electoral vote sites are showing Barack Obama blowing McCain away in a landslide. However, the political landscape can be quite deceiving sometimes.

To demonstrate this, and to set up my assertion, lets go back to 2006, when Harold Ford Jr. challenged Bob Corker for the Senate seat that was up for grabs in Tennessee. Up until election day, Ford held the lead over Corker, but on the day that counts, he lost by 3 percentage points. The analysis showed that the white vote for Ford turned out to be less than it was during the polls. Subsequent interviews showed that some of the white people who said that they were going to vote for Ford actually voted for Corker.

And there you have it, but was this rascism? Hard to say, but although the case can be argued, that proposition is probably wrong. Yes, no matter how improved race relationships become, there will always be a few bigots, and that includes a few blacks as well as a few whites.

Here is what I think - People in general, rather than being rascist and hating other races, have a propensity to see themselves as just a little better than others. It's all about ego, not race, but of course, whatever race, religious affiliation, creed, or color someone is, that is also going to be a part of that person's ego, and therefore part of that person's bias as well.

So how does this apply to politics and voting? In 1960, John F. Kennedy won because the Catholic vote put him over the top in a close race. Kennedy, of course, was Catholic. Bill Richardson won his Senate term partly due to all the Hispanic votes he got. Richardson is Hispanic. The mayor of Detroit is black. He was also overwhelmingly elected by the black majority. So why not some white people voting for the white candidate because "he is me"? Like it or not, some people are going to vote for someone they identify with, and that bias trancends race, gender, religious affiliation, and what have you. Why do you think politicians are always doing things they almost never do at any other time, such as serving breakfast in New Hampshire, going to NASCAR events in the South, and going hunting (I'm thinking of Kerry here)? They are trying their (*)(*)(*)(*)dest to identify with the electorate of whichever region they are in at any particular time. Of course, this can sometimes backfire too. Remember Michael Dukakis driving an armored vehicle in order to sway military voters? That probably led to the landslide against him that year as much as any other factor.

OK, so back to the point I am trying to make - This election will not be a landslide. I don't care what anybody else says. It just won't happen. This year will be another nail biter. Virginia? Polls have Obama ahead. Give that state to McCain. Florida shows up as a dead heat. McCain will take it by a fairly comfortable margin of 5-10 percent. Indiana? Not a chance for Obama there. McCain blows him out in that state. On the other hand, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey go to Obama. If Obama is to win, he must win Ohio, and although he has the lead there at the present time, this one will be a squeaker. Colorado and New Mexico will go to Obama. If McCain is to win, he must take Ohio, as well as Iowa. Yes, Obama is ahead there, but again, this one will also be close.

This is the way I see it. My guess at this time is that Obama pulls off the victory, but again, it is just a guess, based not on polls, but on the action at Intrade, which has Obama ahead. However, Intrade could be wrong too. This election is anybody's ball game.

In the end, what will make this election close won't be the issues, but which candidate identifies with that one intangible - "Me".

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Jack Kevorkian for White House Physician - 2008

i dont think race is as big of a factor as it was say 10-15 years ago because the makeup of the nation is mixed even more now. people seem to be more tolerant, accepting.

i don know if it'll be a landslide, but every tool i look at for the election has obama going over 300

I think if race is a factor it helps obama b/c i think a lot more blacks will turn out to vote for him than whites against him for that reason. Blacks usually vote at about 15% of the population it could get up to 20% and that could be big. Only problems is that the battleground states usually don't have much of a black population or they are only battleground for that reasoning, meaning the black vote will make the state close but McCain will still win, Georgia and Nc will be closer but McCain will still win and get those electoral votes.

That brings up a good point... It's actually possible for a cnadidate to win all the electoral votes and still not have a major popular mandate.

I'm expecting this election to be close. Race is but one factor and is overblown because each party has a way to turn this to its advantage and it's essential to each side to frame it.

Obama's campaign must walk a much tighter rope... pumping up the historical significance of a black president... while also making it clear he's no Jesse Jackson. Of course stepping too far off the line in either direction is hazardous. Either he gets branded another Jesse Jackson, and gets a lot of white people- especially rural and blue collar voters who are part time Democrats to vote for McCain... or he comes off as being "not black enough" (whatever that means) and does not inspire high black turnout.
So far he's been doing a good job of balancing.

This also makes it pretty obvious that the GOP must knock him off balance in public perspective to gain an advantage. Their main tactic seems to be to knock him toward the "Jesse Jackson" side by using acquaintances, faulty soundbites, and even the fact that black people showed up to vote for him. The balancing act they have to manage is one-sided... They have to make sure that none of the questions get attributed to their candidate.
So far it's only really working on people who were unlikely to support Obama in the first place.

I think there are issues that will be far more decisive... but neither side can afford to totally ignore the race thing. It's the 800 pound gorilla in the room.

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