Latest Louisiana Poll: McCain +19 (Southern States Continue To Support McCain) - Page 3

GoSlash27 · #21 (**permalink**) 07-14-2008, 03:01 PM

Reality check:
As of today Obama is leading McCain by 116 electoral votes.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled pipe-dream already in progress.

Obama2008 · #22 (**permalink**) 07-14-2008, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdude17*

Real Clear Politics

McCain 56
Obama 37

McCain +19

Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky all southern states are McCain's. There is no question.

Let's see, Bush won Louisiana by 14.5 in 2004, so your man leading there is no suprise. However, Georgia? McCain is only leading in Georgia by 6.7, a nd Bush won it by 16.6....trouble for McCain? I think so. Kentucky? Same margin Bush won by. Mississippi? McCain is slipping below the Bush numbers. McCain is in trouble across the country, look at North Carolina, Virginia, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Florida. In states McCain should be kicking butt, he's not...and in states that Obama should be losing by large margins, he's not. The swing states are swinging towards Obama, and this election is looking better and better every day.

Quote:

State Obama (D) McCain (R) RCP Average RCP Status 2004 2000
Virginia (13) 44.3 45.0 McCain +0.7 Toss Up Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1
Nevada (5) 43.3 43.3 Tie Toss Up Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5
New Hampshire (4) 44.0 43.3 Obama +0.7 Toss Up Kerry +1.3 Bush +1.3
New Mexico (5) -- -- -- Toss Up Bush +0.7 Gore +0.1
Indiana (11) 47.0 46.5 Obama +0.5 Toss Up Bush +20.7 Bush +15.7
Missouri (11) 45.0 47.5 McCain +2.5 Toss Up Bush +7.2 Bush +3.3
Colorado (9) 46.3 42.7 Obama +3.6 Toss Up Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4
Florida (27) 43.8 46.0 McCain +2.2 Toss Up Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1
North Carolina (15) 42.0 46.5 McCain +4.5 Toss Up Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8
Ohio (20) 47.3 42.8 Obama +4.5 Toss Up Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5
Iowa (7) 49.7 42.3 Obama +7.4 Leaning Bush +0.7 Gore +0.3
Montana (3) 42.0 45.7 McCain +3.7 Leaning Bush +20.5 Bush +25.0
Oregon (7) 46.7 40.3 Obama +6.4 Leaning Kerry +4.2 Gore +0.5
Georgia (15) 43.3 50.0 McCain +6.7 Leaning Bush +16.6 Bush +11.7
Pennsylvania (21) 48.0 40.3 Obama +7.7 Leaning Kerry +2.5 Gore +4.2
Michigan (17) 48.7 41.0 Obama +7.7 Leaning Kerry +3.4 Gore +5.2
Wisconsin (10) 51.5 40.3 Obama +11.2 Leaning Kerry +0.4 Gore +0.2
Minnesota (10) 51.5 39.5 Obama +12.0 Leaning Kerry +3.5 Gore +2.4
Texas (34) 38.0 48.8 McCain +10.8 Leaning Bush +22.9 Bush +21.3
New Jersey (15) 47.0 38.7 Obama +8.3 Leaning Kerry +6.7 Gore +15.8
Washington (11) 49.3 40.0 Obama +9.3 Leaning Kerry +8.2 Gore +5.5
Mississippi (6) 41.3 52.7 McCain +11.4 Leaning Bush +19.6 Bush +16.9
Louisiana (9) 37.3 54.0 McCain +16.7 Leaning Bush +14.5 Bush +7.7
Arkansas (6) 33.0 48.0 McCain +15.0 Solid Bush +9.7 Bush +5.4
California (55) 52.8 36.6 Obama +16.2 Solid Kerry +9.9 Gore +11.8
New York (31) 53.4 34.4 Obama +19.0 Solid Kerry +18.3 Gore +25.0
Connecticut (7) 55.0 35.0 Obama +20.0 Solid Kerry +10.3 Gore +17.5
Kentucky (

35.3 56.0 McCain +20.7 Solid Bush +19.9 Bush +15.1
Tennessee (11) 36.7 52.7 McCain +16.0 Solid Bush +14.3 Bush +3.9
Alabama (9) 34.7 54.7 McCain +20.0 Solid Bush +25.7 Bush +14.9

Check the Map:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

superdude17* · #23 (**permalink**) 07-14-2008, 08:02 PM

I personally have been seeing the decline of Obama's campaign through my own political news watching and researching these last few months. Ever since the week after he became the Democrat nominee, his support has been waning. This is something you can't tell by polls. But, just by interacting with people, you get the sense that people really are starting to see Obama for who he is, a fake and a phoney.

JLB · #24 (**permalink**) 07-14-2008, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Obama2008

this election is looking better and better every day.

Yes, it certainly is!

Quote:

July 14, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. The candidates had been tied at 43% for the past two days.

When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led McCain by approximately five percentage points (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights). McCain’s improvement in the polls comes as more Americans believe it is possible for the U.S. to win the war in Iraq.

Obama was up by 5, and now it's tied after a weekend poll!

Joe1991 · #25 (**permalink**) 07-14-2008, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdude17*

black workers make fun of latinos at my school who work in the lunch room....

Do they make fun of you guys that ride the short bus?

gmb92 · #26 (**permalink**) 07-14-2008, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdude17*

I personally have been seeing the decline of Obama's campaign through my own political news watching and researching these last few months. Ever since the week after he became the Democrat nominee, his support has been waning. This is something you can't tell by polls. But, just by interacting with people, you get the sense that people really are starting to see Obama for who he is, a fake and a phoney.

I guess it depends then on who you're interacting with and what news sources you've been digesting. Right-wingers have certainly made these claims about Obama for the past year or so. I remember many claiming Obama was "finished" because he didn't have his hand over his heart during a national anthem or something to that effect. If one were to quantify all of these claims about Obama sinking over time, one would think McCain would be ahead by 30 points by now nationally.

Meanwhile, in recent polls, the conservative pollster Rasmussen shows Obama ahead double digits in states McCain was supposed to at least be competitive in.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ntial_election

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ntial_election

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ntial_election

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ntial_election

Even in a solid red state Bush won by 25 points, the two are essentially tied.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ntial_election

There's still plenty of time for McCain to get back into it, but if the election was held today, he would lose. What McCain has going for him are those 10-20% of Democratic and Independent voters who are unlikely to vote for a black person (as is clearly evident from exit polls from Democratic primaries), a group which he is eagerly courting and one that Obama is unlikely to ever reach. Take away this very significant factor and Obama wins in a landslide. Plenty of Republicans have similar racist tendencies but since they generally don't vote Democratic regardless, they are irrelevant.

If you replaced "Obama" with "McCain" in your last sentence, it would be more accurate. Even right-wingers have a difficult time defending pandering McCain. Their "defense" generally consists of nothnig more than false attacks on Obama.

B-rett · #27 (**permalink**) 07-14-2008, 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoSlash27

Reality check:
As of today Obama is leading McCain by 116 electoral votes.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled pipe-dream already in progress.

I was unaware that the election occurred

superdude17* · #28 (**permalink**) 07-14-2008, 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe1991

Do they make fun of you guys that ride the short bus?

the short bus always got the most government funding.

GoSlash27 · #29 (**permalink**) 07-15-2008, 06:31 PM

Quote:

I was unaware that the election occurred

Aww... don't be sore. I ain't exactly thrilled that Obama is going to be president

siddhartha · #30 (**permalink**) 07-16-2008, 04:23 AM

A quick thought. Where we are in the overall election is the calm before the storm. This is the period of time when most of the candidates efforts are in organizing for the post convention campaign. From what I read, Obama has a substantial advantage in that effort. He's proven to be a far superior "General" in that regard.

Quote:

Amid on the ground reports that McCain is outspending Obama on the air at least 2-1 in places like Missouri, we learn that Obama’s team is betting on a different strategy – overwhelming ground organization early and often.

In Missouri, Obama will have 150 paid organizers and maintain a 12-1 paid organizer edge in my native state. Show-me, indeed. In Michigan, Obama will put an unprecedented 150 field organizers on the ground. In Ohio, why not go for 300 field organizers? That sounds like a nice, absurdly large, round number.

This is the campaign equivalent of invasion with overwhelming force. In the coming days, we should be hearing more reports like these from other battlegrounds (here's Iowa, for example), giving us a clearer and clearer picture of each campaign’s voter contact strategy. Already, however, Marc Ambinder has pointed out that:

The polls don't account for the force multiplier effect that Obama's campaign will almost certainly bring to bear with its millions of volunteers and thousands of paid staffers. Whether that effect is 1.01, 1.05 or even 1.3 -- we don't know yet. But even the McCain campaign acknowledges its existence.

Here's some new data:

Quote:

This a.m. Quinnipiac Univ. released its first nat'l survey in two months. The poll, taken 7/8-13 among 1,725 LVs, shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 50-41%. Obama led the previous Quinnipiac survey, taken 5/8-12 among 1,745 RVs, 47-40%. The polls have margins error +/- 2.4% (July) and +/- 2.3% (May).

Obama now leads by 93% among blacks, up from his 83% lead in the previous poll; McCain meanwhile maintains his 7% lead among whites. Even more interesting, however, is the breakdown of voting by age.

Obama, as expected, holds a substantial (63-31%) lead among voters 34 and under; he also holds a slight 48-44% edge among voters 35-54 years old. But McCain and Obama are virtually tied among voters 55 and over, with McCain holding a statistically insignificant 1% lead.

Quote:

The Newsweek poll showed that 61% to 39% of Obama’s support was hard vs. soft and that the mirror image was true for McCain. Applied to the whole electorate, the Newsweek poll showed:

27% hard support Obama
17% soft support Obama
15% totally undecided
25% soft support McCain
16% hard support McCain

Pew’s numbers are strikingly similar. From its June 2008 poll (June 18-29, 2,004 participants):

28% hard support Obama
20% soft support Obama
12% totally undecided
26% soft support McCain
14% hard support McCain

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