"Today, it seems likely that Time and Newsweek included too many Republicans."

And so....what is he basing that on? Besides the fact that it's the only explanation he can come up with to account for his poll being different? Pretty coincidental that both TIME and NEWSWEEK would have included too many Republicans. Where's his PROOF that it had too many Republicans in it. And are we to believe that from now on whenever there is a poll showing a huge gain for Kerry, that we get to claim that "it's likely it had too many Democrats in it????" I'll be sure and keep that in mind......

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"This is a time for a national imperative not to fail in Iraq." Condoleeza Rice, January 11, 2007

..Jr got a much bigger bounce than Kerry did. The Senator from MA has an uphill climb...And he has to stay on message but part of the problem is he has been a "softie". I believe the SWIFTBOAT ads took the campaign by surprise and to have that story out there for 2 weeks before the RNC did him no favors.

He has to stick with the economy, healthcare and post-war Iraq and hope that by the time the debates roll around, he would have closed the gap a bit to at least pull even going into the final weeks.

Because if all those people who support him think he has no shot at winning, they will NOT be inclined to turn out on NOV 2. And that is certainly a win for JR.

There have been three major studies on party identification within the past year... Their results were as follows:

--------DNC RNC
Harris 33 28
Pew 33 29
NAES 34 32

The reliability and sheer size of these three polls make one thing pretty clear. Right now, Party ID in this country, when leaners are not pushed, is 33% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 38% independent / not aligned. Considering this, much of the bounce from the Newsweek poll is generated by poorly weighted Party ID numbers.

----------------Party ID
Republican 38%
Democrat 31%
Independent 31%

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/9/4/154842/1919
Do you understand now how Rasmussen arrived ato his conclusions?

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The war on terror involves Saddam Hussein because of the nature of Saddam Hussein, the history of Saddam Hussein, and his willingness to terrorize himself. George W. Bush

Re: the Newsweek poll - the real Bush advantage may be larger than the poll's published results show:

"First Look At A Big Bounce?"

http://www.polipundit.com/2004_09_05...43851196284135

Quote:
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As CrushKerry observed, GOP respondents outweighed Democratic respondents in the poll, 374 to 303. With 300 Independents noted,that works out to 38.3% Republicans, 31.0% Democrats, and 30.7% Independents of the 977 total from the three. But the Newsweek poll states that 1,188 respondents were polled, with 1,088 Registered voters. And while the press release takes 20 pages to print and read, Newsweek doesn’t say, exactly, how those remaining 111 to 211 respondents breakdown. Also, I took the time to break down the respondents’ percentages: If the Rep/Dem/Ind response was unweighted, Bush would have led Kerry in the poll 58.0% to 42.0%, a sixteen-point lead, not eleven. So, while they don’t say exactly how they weighted their poll, Newsweek did weight the poll to balance things more towards the Democrats.
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Quote:
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First off, Newsweek noted that the interviews took place both Thursday and Friday. Thursday respondents preferred Bush to Kerry, 49% to 43%, with 3% for Nader and 5% undecided. On Friday, those respondents chose Bush 54% to Kerry’s 38%, with 4% for Nader and 4% undecided. That means that Bush’s speech gained Bush support, and did so directly at the cost to Kerry’s numbers. Kerry’s speech did not help him; Bush’s speech clearly did.
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Quote:
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What about women? Kerry was ahead by an average of 48.6% to 40.5% this summer, and just before the convention, Kerry was ahead 48.7% to Bush’s 43.0%. Newsweek now shows women prefer President Bush to John Kerry, 50% to 43%, a 12-point swing! It seems, those people who figured Laura Bush for only a marginal value in this election, figured wrong.
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"John Kerry gave the enemy for free what I and my comrades in the prison camps in North Vietnam took torture to avoid saying. He sold us out."
- Paul Galanti, US P.O.W.

Yes, you're right. Bill Clinton told John Kerry to get off Viet Nam. However, Kerry is going to have a real problem convincing Americans that the economy is doing poorly. Or that people have McDonald & Walmart paying jobs.. Alan Greenspan, in his most recent testimony, stated that the paychecks are up, not down.

BILL CLINTON WAS RE-ELECTED ON 5.6% UNEMPLOYMENT. FRIDAY'S, AUG 31, 2004 THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WAS 5.4%, WHICH IS LOWER.

As far as health coverage. What has John Kerry done in his last 20 years in the senate for health coverage? Kerry voted against giving small business tax credits, for health insurance. Small business employs 70% of the American population.

THERE'S WHAT KERRY SAYS, AND THEN THERE'S WHAT KERRY DOES!