George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.
Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.

US (weighted) 47% 46% 1% 1% 5% 7-21

State: Bush Kerry Nader Other DK Sep

Alabama 54% 40% 1% 0% 4% 13-16
Alaska 57% 30% 5% 3% 5% 9-11
Arizona 49% 43% * 1% 6% 11-14
Arkansas 48% 45% 2% 0% 5% 15-17
California 41% 52% * 1% 6% 11-13
Colorado 46% 45% 3% 1% 6% 10-13
Connecticut 39% 54% 1% 1% 5% 12-14
Delaware 41% 50% 2% 1% 6% 13-15
DC 11% 78% 6% 1% 4% 11-13
Florida 45% 46% 2% 1% 6% 17-20
Georgia 53% 42% * 1% 4% 11-13
Hawaii 41% 51% 4% 0% 4% 7-11
Idaho 59% 30% 3% 1% 7% 8-10
Illinois 43% 49% 2% 1% 5% 13-16
Indiana 54% 39% * 1% 6% 16-20
Iowa 48% 46% 1% 1% 5% 12-14
Kansas 57% 35% 2% 1% 6% 15-18
Kentucky 57% 39% 1% 0% 4% 8-12
Louisiana 50% 42% 1% 1% 6% 17-21
Maine 44% 48% 4% 0% 5% 8-10
Maryland 43% 52% 2% 0% 3% 7-9
Massachusetts 27% 64% * 1% 7% 10-13
Michigan 40% 48% 1% 1% 9% 17-21
Minnesota 45% 47% 2% 1% 5% 10-12
Mississippi 51% 42% 1% 1% 5% 14-17
Missouri 50% 44% * 1% 5% 16-19
Montana 60% 32% 3% 0% 5% 7-9
Nebraska 61% 30% 2% 1% 6% 9-12
Nevada 47% 45% 1% 1% 6% 12-14
New Hampshire 47% 45% 1% 1% 7% 15-17
New Jersey 42% 50% 1% 1% 6% 13-16
New Mexico 44% 49% 1% 0% 6% 14-16
New York 40% 52% 1% 2% 4% 14-16
North Carolina 49% 44% * 1% 6% 13-16
North Dakota 62% 33% 1% 0% 4% 7-10
Ohio 48% 46% 1% 1% 5% 17-20
Oklahoma 55% 38% * 1% 6% 15-20
Oregon 45% 47% 2% 1% 5% 10-13
Pennsylvania 46% 47% 1% 1% 5% 15-19
Rhode Island 30% 58% 4% 1% 6% 11-13
South Carolina 52% 40% 1% 1% 7% 14-16
South Dakota 58% 39% 1% 1% 2% 8-12
Tennessee 50% 43% 1% 1% 5% 16-18
Texas 58% 36% 1% 1% 5% 16-20
Utah 64% 27% 4% 1% 5% 10-13
Vermont 40% 50% 4% 0% 7% 9-12
Virginia 49% 43% * 1% 7% 12-14
Washington 44% 51% 2% 0% 3% 9-13
West Virginia 46% 46% 2% 1% 6% 14-16
Wisconsin 46% 46% 1% 1% 6% 12-15
Wyoming 65% 29% 2% 0% 3% 9-11

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

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The war on terror involves Saddam Hussein because of the nature of Saddam Hussein, the history of Saddam Hussein, and his willingness to terrorize himself. George W. Bush

..squawking about how polls don't mean anything...

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The last time this country mixed politics with religion, people got burned at the stake.

actually, the consensus is the Bush is definately leading in the electoral votes. He is leading in Ohio, he is leading in NH, and he is tied in PA and NJ of all places, which he lost badly to Gore in 2000.

If you want to remain confident about Kerry, fine. But many Democrats are not. He is not doing especially well, and you should worry that he could lose to the man who you have spent a great deal of energy hating for the last four years.

The ARG state polls above are corraborated by Zogby and Rasmussen polls - three extremely respected pollsters. The ARG national poll result is in line with Zogby, Rasmussen, Pew and Harris polls. Two of these polls - Zogby and Harris nailed the 2000 election. You could of course refer to Gallup poll but it was an outlier during this whole campaign (even once when it was in Kerry's favor it was still an outlier). In addition Gallup acknowledged that they had absolutely no experience in State polling.


Yeah, right, two weeks ago the consensus was that Bush got a double digit bounce and the election was over. What happened to that consensus?

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The war on terror involves Saddam Hussein because of the nature of Saddam Hussein, the history of Saddam Hussein, and his willingness to terrorize himself. George W. Bush

Look, even your avatar is a made up lie.

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"This is a time for a national imperative not to fail in Iraq." Condoleeza Rice, January 11, 2007

Polls are junk. Today electoral-vote.com (which has the advantage of averaging out all the various polls, so it's sort of a metapoll) has Kerry with 269 EC votes to Bush's 253 — this after Kerry was below 200 last week.

Any chance there's something else to talk about?

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Scarred survivor of the April 2008 Mod War.

These polls don't mean anything. I have made this argument before. Right now, it's really too close for any of these polls to really mean anything. After the debates we will see the polls break and in November the only poll that counts will be taken.

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WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

We all must agree that this is going to be a very close race up until the end...right? We must also agree that the undecided voters are going to play a big hand in the outcome of this election. If Hans is correct and Bush is leading in the electoral votes and not popular votes, I wonder what effect this has on undecided voters.

After what happened in 2000, I think a lot of people are upset that the popular voice was not heard. My theory is that if it stays this way with electoral votes opposing popular vote, undecided voters that are leaning toward Kerry because they dislike Bush, but don't want to vote because they aren't sure about Kerry will come out in droves to make sure that we don't have a repeat of the 2000 election. Those undecided who see Bush in the lead electorally and are possibly leaning toward Bush or at least not anti-Bush or anti-kerry might just leave well enough alone.

My predicted eventual outcome of this theory is that the election will be mostly tied with likely voters as usual based on polls up to the election. Then the undecided voters will tip the scale in favor of Kerry...Kerry will win this election.

Either that or my main theory will occur that Kerry is going to clean up in the debates to get these undecided voters on his side regardless, still getting the popular vote and the electoral vote in this years election.

Kerry, doesn't have a snowballs chance of winning Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, or Nevada. The polls are showing a solid Bush lead in ALL those states.

My Prediction is: Bush will win in a landslide, carrying all of the midwest & upper midwestern states & all of the southern states. What will be interesting is if Bush will win New York or California? I doubt it, but he is gaining in both states.

Kerry will win Mass, Washinton State, maybe Oregon, New York, California & Hawai. Or a total of SIX states.

Anyway, that's my two cents worth.