The Race is On

mpotter · #1 (**permalink**) 10-04-2004, 05:00 AM

Hey Catz...looks like the tables have turned regarding how likely voters reacted to thursday's debate. Its all downhill from here baby. I'd like to remind people however that I really don't put too much faith in pre-election polling, however, I just had to post this in response to Catz's attempt to state that the debate didn't affect the way likely voters see Bush vs. Kerry.

Quote:

The Race is On
With voters widely viewing Kerry as the debate’s winner, Bush’s lead in the NEWSWEEK poll has evaporated

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6159637/site/newsweek/

Updated: 6:04 p.m. ET Oct. 2, 2004Oct. 2 - With a solid majority of voters concluding that John Kerry outperformed George W. Bush in the first presidential debate on Thursday, the president’s lead in the race for the White House has vanished, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. In the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample, NEWSWEEK found the race now statistically tied among all registered voters, 47 percent of whom say they would vote for Kerry and 45 percent for George W. Bush in a three-way race.

Removing Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who draws 2 percent of the vote, widens the Kerry-Edwards lead to three points with 49 percent of the vote versus the incumbent’s 46 percent. Four weeks ago the Republican ticket, coming out of a successful convention in New York, enjoyed an 11-point lead over Kerry-Edwards with Bush pulling 52 percent of the vote and the challenger just 41 percent.

Among the three-quarters (74 percent) of registered voters who say they watched at least some of Thursday’s debate, 61 percent see Kerry as the clear winner, 19 percent pick Bush as the victor and 16 percent call it a draw. After weeks of being portrayed as a verbose “flip-flopper” by Republicans, Kerry did better than a majority (56 percent) had expected. Only about 11 percent would say the same for the president’s performance while more than one-third (38 percent) said the incumbent actually did worse that they had expected. Thirty-nine percent of Republicans felt their man out-debated the challenger but a full third (33 percent) say they felt Kerry won.

Kerry’s perceived victory may be attributed to the fact that, by a wide margin (62 percent to 26 percent), debate watchers felt the senator came across as more confident than the president. More than half (56 percent) also see Kerry has having a better command of the facts than Bush (37 percent). As a result, the challenger’s favorability ratings (52 percent, versus 40 percent unfavorable) are better than Bush’s, who at 49 percent (and 46 percent unfavorable), has dipped below the halfway mark for the first time since July. Kerry, typically characterized as aloof and out of touch by his opponents, came across as more personally likeable than Bush (47 percent to the president’s 41 percent).

In fact, Kerry’s numbers have improved across the board, while Bush’s vulnerabilities have become more pronounced. The senator is seen as more intelligent and well-informed (80 percent, up six points over last month, compared to Bush’s steady 59 percent); as having strong leadership skills (56 percent, also up 6 points, but still less than Bush’s 62 percent) and as someone who can be trusted to make the right calls in an international crisis (51 percent, up five points and tied with Bush).

Meanwhile, Bush’s approval ratings have dropped to below the halfway mark (46 percent) for the first time since the GOP convention in late August. Nearly half of all voters (48 percent) say they do not want to see Bush re-elected, while 46 percent say they do. Still, a majority of voters (55 percent versus 29 percent) believe the president will be re-hired on Nov. 2.

Neither man was seen as a particularly stronger leader (44 percent Bush, 47 percent Kerry), more negative (37 percent Bush, 36 percent Kerry) or more honest (43 percent Bush, 45 percent Kerry).

Perhaps because the debate topic focused on foreign policy—and largely was dominated by the war in Iraq—that issue rates higher as a voter concern than it did a month ago. Twenty percent of all voters say Iraq is the issue that will most determine their vote, up from 15 percent. Tied with Iraq is the economy (21 percent), and still leading the list is terrorism and homeland security (26 percent). And key for the president is the fact that he is the preferred man on the issues more important to voters. On homeland security, Bush is preferred 52 percent to Kerry’s 40 percent (a significant spread, but a narrowing one: Last month the spread, in the president’s favor, was 58 percent to 34 percent). On Iraq Bush is preferred 49 percent to 44 percent (compared to 54 percent versus 39 percent a month ago). Kerry is even with the president on the question of which man is better suited to guide foreign policy in general (48 percent Bush to the challenger’s 46 percent) and clamping down on the proliferation of nuclear materiel (47 percent Bush, 43 percent Kerry).

Where Kerry clearly leads is on domestic issues, which will be the focus of the third debate on Oct. 13, in Tempe, Ariz. The Democrat is preferred to Bush by double-digit spreads on who would be better at handling the economy (52 percent to 39 percent), foreign competition (54 percent to 36 percent) and health care (56 percent to 34 percent).

Although the subject of the draft was only briefly addressed during the debate, four in ten voters (38 percent) believe that because of the war in Iraq—which 50 percent of all voters now view as unnecessary—a second Bush administration would reinstate the draft. Just 18 percent feel the same would happen if Kerry were elected. Nearly two thirds (62 percent) feel a draft should not be considered at this time and 28 percent said a draft should at least be considered. But only 46 percent feel going to war was the right decision in the first place with just as many (45 percent) under the impression that the administration deliberately misled the nation into war with falsified evidence of weapons of mass destruction.

Finally, echoing a recurring refrain of Kerry’s, more than half of all voters (51 percent) think the Bush administration has not done enough to engage other nations (43 percent feel they have done enough or even gone too far in that direction as it is).

Neonimbo · #2 (**permalink**) 10-04-2004, 06:16 AM

If Kerry and Edwards can pull off the next few debates with some good soundbytes and a good presentation, theyre golden. Watch old debates and such, youll see that sometimes it doesnt matter who wins, but who looks better, who seems more Presidential, and who grabs people's eye.

I dont think George Bush has any of those qualities. And Dick Cheney is a fat Darth Vader, so I doubt people will like him too much. Mr Scrooge indeed.

Mike, this month is going to be a great one me thinks!!

mpotter · #3 (**permalink**) 10-04-2004, 06:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neonimbo";p=&quot

If Kerry and Edwards can pull off the next few debates with some good soundbytes and a good presentation, theyre golden. Watch old debates and such, youll see that sometimes it doesnt matter who wins, but who looks better, who seems more Presidential, and who grabs people's eye.

I dont think George Bush has any of those qualities. And Dick Cheney is a fat Darth Vader, so I doubt people will like him too much. Mr Scrooge indeed.

Mike, this month is going to be a great one me thinks!!

The reason I say it's all downhill from here, is because the Bush team requested this be the first debate topic, because more people would be likely to watch the first debate. Bush wanted to lead his so-called strong suit with the first debate, to try and bury Kerry at Coral Gables. It backfired on him obviously, and now he is out of ammo. With the polls basically tied up again, the next debates will be a cakewalk for Kerry. (knock on wood). The Edwards/Cheney debate is simply a joke, as even a lot of Cheney's own people don't trust in what he says most of the time, plus Edwards is a very effective speaker. Must be all that experience in the practice. Kerry and Edwards not only have the benefit of looking good during the debates, but they also have the substance Americans want to hear, with the added fact that Bush has failed us in almost every issue imaginable.

The polls change on a moments notice, but from here on out, I believe people are solidifying their views on the candidates. And it doesn't look good for Bush.

Neonimbo · #4 (**permalink**) 10-04-2004, 06:38 AM

As long as Kerry doesnt pull an Al Gore and walk up to him in a threatening manner during the town hall debate I think we are fine, haha. That was so funny, George just turned around, nodded, and said "Hello". Hahahaha, priceless. Gore you silly fool.

kaladrew · #5 (**permalink**) 10-04-2004, 09:36 AM

surgically remove the smirk from Cheney's face?

That could be a problem "Big Time" because you can't smirk if you're negotiating with other countries (even though we don't need them)

will Cheney be prepared to answer questions about Haliburton?

Remember when Dan Quayle's advisors told him NOT to mention JFK in the debate and he did anyway?

I bet Cheney won't be able to hold himself back either.

gkjjehunter · #6 (**permalink**) 10-04-2004, 09:41 AM

I hope Kerry corner's Bush to answer the tough questions and makes Bush cry for his mommy. I hope Kerry is to Bush as Reagan was to Carter. Bush can't stand on his own two feet without someone directing him.

Sadistic-Savior · #7 (**permalink**) 10-04-2004, 09:48 AM

Quote:

will Cheney be prepared to answer questions about Haliburton?

FactCheck.Org has already answered them. Maybe Cheney can just point them there...

- http://www.factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=261 -

Have fun.

kaladrew · #8 (**permalink**) 10-04-2004, 09:57 AM

does Annenberg (joke) offer a link to defend Cheney's energy "commission?"

where are the files? or does that only apply to Kerry?

SenaxFlatulus · #9 (**permalink**) 10-04-2004, 06:19 PM

Newsweek's poll reveals some interesting things when you check the internal numbers. For example: where did they get their samples from? How was the representation broken down? It looks kinda' lopsided don't you think?

These polls are just a sliver of a snapshot. I don't believe many if at all. They do begin to take on more importance as we near the election, but the most important one is the one on November 2.

Tricky-White-Devil · #10 (**permalink**) 10-04-2004, 11:25 PM

OK Here is the lowdown.......

1. No President in the history of the U.S. has ever been voted out of office during a war

2. The last New Englander President was John F. Kennedy

3. Registered Republicans always vote in higher numbers than registered Democrats

4. Popularity Vote is not the Electoral Vote

Bush has got this election in the bag and will win by a significant electoral landslide. :S THe Democrats really nominated a BAD candidate, it was their election to lose!!!!

OK Since I am sure of myself and am also a "Gambling Man" I will create a bet on the Elections Forum for anyone looking for action..........LOL

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