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  #41 (permalink)  
Old 10-17-2004, 01:20 PM
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Default No logic

Quote:
Originally Posted by KenLay";p=&quot View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by JP5";p=&quot View Post
First of all......those 19,000 could get mad over Nader being taken off the ballot by the Democrats....and either choose to vote for Bush, not vote at all, or write Nader in as a protest vote. None of these possibilities help Kerry as the Democrats wanted. I think the Democrats have done Nader pretty badly....and I think you are going to see a lot of one of those 3 scenarios I just mentioned. I mean just think about it, Ken........those 19,000 Nader supporters are NOT going to reward the Democrats for what they've done to their candidate by voting for Kerry.
Now that's plain silly. Even if one of those 19,000 will vote for kerry it's still a gain and none of them will vote for Bush. More importantly when millions Pennsilvanians who were not on the petition go to vote on November 2nd, they are not going to be presented with Nader as a choice. That could easily add a hundred thousand voters to Kerry.
All I can say is: LIBERAL LOGIC IS NO LOGIC AT ALL!!
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  #42 (permalink)  
Old 10-17-2004, 01:22 PM
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Default .

Quote:
Originally Posted by raytri";p=&quot View Post
www.270towin.com has a great interactive map that lets you play around with the who wins and who loses bit and see what's important.
Great site, raytri. Thanks.
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  #43 (permalink)  
Old 10-17-2004, 01:27 PM
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Default -

Quote:
Originally Posted by JP5";p=&quot View Post
It's Rasmussun.
I posted 6 polls of Bush's job approval above:

Quote:
Originally Posted by KenLay";p=&quot View Post
Bush job approval according to realclearpolitics.com

Apporve Disapprove
49% 49% Time 10/14 - 10/15
43% 48% CBS News 10/9 - 10/11
47% 49% CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/9 - 10/10
46% 53% AP/Ipsos 10/4 - 10/6
47% 48% Newsweek 10/14-10/15
53% 46% Rasmussen 10/13 - 10/15
You picked the one which is way out of wack with the rest of the polls and you are using it to "show" that Bush's job approval is high in battleground states. Thatt's dishonest jp5, SHAME ON YOU!!!
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  #44 (permalink)  
Old 10-17-2004, 01:35 PM
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Default Big Margins....I hope

Quote:
Originally Posted by raytri";p=&quot View Post
www.270towin.com has a great interactive map that lets you play around with the who wins and who loses bit and see what's important.

Assuming Kerry takes New England (including PA), the West Coast and the Midwest states he's favored in (MN, IL, MI), then:

1. If Kerry wins Florida, he wins the election.
2. If Kerry wins Ohio and either Iowa or Wisconsin, he wins the election.
3. If Kerry wins Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri, he wins the election.

I'm sure there are other scenarios, but those strike me as the most feasible.

It's going to be close, folks.
Rasmussen has total Electoral Votes as.....Bush 213 and Kerry 194. The other 131 he has as too close to call. Until the first debate, he had moved Florida into a solid Bush column giving the president 240 electoral votes..........but then took it out after that first debate because it became too close to call again. Now, it's going back towards Bush....but not enough to put it in a firm win column yet. So, with Bush at 213 and Kerry with 194......Bush wins Ohio and Florida and Wisconsin....he wins. He needs 57 more electoral votes to win; Kerry needs 76 more electoral votes. We should know early in the evening.....because if Bush wins Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.....it's over. We'll know maybe.........from what I'm hearing about the Democrats shenanigans.....we may be weeks knowing again. And that would be really a sad situation for our country. So.....I'm hoping it's not even close...and that Bush wins by a much bigger margin than even I expect.
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"What exactly is this foreign policy experience?" Obama said mockingly of the New York senator. "Was she negotiating treaties? Was she handling crises? The answer is no."
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  #45 (permalink)  
Old 10-17-2004, 01:40 PM
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Default SHAME ON YOU

Quote:
Originally Posted by KenLay";p=&quot View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by JP5";p=&quot View Post
It's Rasmussun.
I posted 6 polls of Bush's job approval above:

Quote:
Originally Posted by KenLay";p=&quot View Post
Bush job approval according to realclearpolitics.com

Apporve Disapprove
49% 49% Time 10/14 - 10/15
43% 48% CBS News 10/9 - 10/11
47% 49% CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/9 - 10/10
46% 53% AP/Ipsos 10/4 - 10/6
47% 48% Newsweek 10/14-10/15
53% 46% Rasmussen 10/13 - 10/15
You picked the one which is way out of wack with the rest of the polls and you are using it to "show" that Bush's job approval is high in battleground states. Thatt's dishonest jp5, SHAME ON YOU!!!
I didn't post it KEN.....BECAUSE YOU ALREADY HAD. And besides, that wasn't our discussion. You were giving national polling.....and I simply said the polling inside those swing states is what is important now. I was giving you the sentiment going on inside those states. But that's okay....KEEP focusing on the national polls, Ken........misguided as it is at this point. IF you continue to bury your head and think that national polls are more important than those swing states.....then SHAME ON YOU!!
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"What exactly is this foreign policy experience?" Obama said mockingly of the New York senator. "Was she negotiating treaties? Was she handling crises? The answer is no."
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  #46 (permalink)  
Old 10-17-2004, 02:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JP5";p=&quot View Post
You were giving national polling.....and I simply said the polling inside those swing states is what is important now. I was giving you the sentiment going on inside those states.
Didn't it even occur to you that if Ramussen's job approval rating is out of whack nationaly it's likely to be an outlier in battleground states as well?

How else can Bush be behind Kerry in Wisconsin with his job approval at 53%?
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old 10-17-2004, 02:22 PM
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Default Polls

Quote:
Originally Posted by KenLay";p=&quot View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by JP5";p=&quot View Post
You were giving national polling.....and I simply said the polling inside those swing states is what is important now. I was giving you the sentiment going on inside those states.
Didn't it even occur to you that if Ramussen's job approval rating is out of whack nationaly it's likely to be an outlier in battleground states as well?

How else can Bush be behind Kerry in Wisconsin with his job approval at 53%?
He's only behind by 1% point in Wisconsin......in this polling by Rasmussen. So what if that's wrong? Did you ever consider that's the particular poll that's "out of whack?" With the margin of error....he could very well be ahead.

As I recall you've said before that Newsweek was "out of whack" when it showed Bush way ahead. Now, that's it's showing Kerry ahead, you are suddenly posting is as the poll to believe.

Polls are not always very accurate. In fact, in 2000, the polls were awful. I'm not placing my full faith in what any of them say right now. But you go ahead........
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"What exactly is this foreign policy experience?" Obama said mockingly of the New York senator. "Was she negotiating treaties? Was she handling crises? The answer is no."
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  #48 (permalink)  
Old 10-17-2004, 05:42 PM
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Default Here is the poll

RealClearPolitics Poll AverageSM
3-Way Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards vs Nader/Camejo
Send This Page to a Friend | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average

Poll Date Bush/
Cheney Kerry/
Edwards Nader/
Camejo Spread
RCP Average 10/13 - 10/16 49.0% 45.0% 1.7% Bush +4.0
ABC/Wash Post (1203 LV)* 10/14 - 10/16 50% 46% 2% Bush +4
CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV) 10/14 - 10/16 52% 44% 1% Bush +8
Zogby (1211 LV) 10/14 - 10/16 46% 44% 1% Bush +2
TIPP (786 LV) 10/13 - 10/16 48% 45% 2% Bush +3
Time (865 LV w/leaners) 10/14 - 10/15 48% 47% 3% Bush +1
Newsweek (LV) 10/14 - 10/15 50% 44% 1% Bush +6
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/11 - 10/14 49% 46% 0% Bush +3
CBS News (760 LV) 10/9 - 10/11 48% 45% 2% Bush +3
ICR (763 LV) 10/9 - 10/11 48% 43% 2% Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV) 10/9 - 10/10 48% 49% 1% Kerry +1
Time (886 LV w/leaners) 10/6 - 10/7 46% 45% 4% Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1250 LV) 10/3 - 10/7 49% 46% 0% Bush +3
AP/Ipsos (944 LV)*** 10/4 - 10/6 46% 50% 2% Kerry +4
Marist (642 LV) 10/4 - 10/5 49% 46% 1% Bush +3
Fox News (1000 LV) 10/3 - 10/4 47% 45% 1% Bush +2
ICR (762 LV)** 10/1 - 10/5 51% 45% 2% Bush +6
ARG (800 LV) 10/2 - 10/4 46% 46% 2% TIE
ABC News/WP (1169 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 51% 46% 1% Bush +5
CBS News/NYT (561 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 47% 47% 1% TIE
Zogby (1036 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 46% 43% 2% Bush +3
Pew Research (801 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 49% 44% 2% Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 49% 49% 1% TIE
Newsweek (1013 RV) 9/30 - 10/2 45% 47% 2% Kerry +2
SHU Poll Inst. (1003 LV) 9/27 - 10/2 48% 43% 2% Bush +5
Battleground (1000 LV) 9/27 - 9/30 51% 44% 1% Bush +7
LA Times (1100 LV) 9/25 - 9/28 51% 45% 2% Bush +6
CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV) 9/24 - 9/26 52% 44% 3% Bush +8
IBD/TIPP (649 LV) 9/22 - 9/27 45% 45% 2% TIE
ABC News/WP (810 LV) 9/23 - 9/26 51% 45% 1% Bush +6
Pew Research (948 RV) 9/22 - 9/26 48% 40% 2% Bush +8
Time (877 LV) 9/21 - 9/23 48% 42% 5% Bush +6
FOX News (1000 LV) 9/21 - 9/22 46% 42% 1% Bush +4
Battleground (1000 LV) 9/20 - 9/23 50% 45% 0% Bush +5
Marist (630 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 50% 44% 2% Bush +6
CBS News (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 51% 42% 2% Bush +9
AP/Ipsos (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 52% 45% 1% Bush +7
Pew Research (989 RV) 9/17 - 9/21 45% 42% 3% Bush +3
NBC News/WSJ (787 LV) 9/17 - 9/19 50% 46% 1% Bush +4
Zogby (1066 LV) 9/17 - 9/19 46% 43% 1% Bush +3
IBD/TIPP (650 LV) 9/14 - 9/18 45% 42% 2% Bush +3
ARG (LV) 9/7 - 9/21 47% 46% 1% Bush +1
CBS News (1048 RV) 9/12 - 9/16 50% 41% 3% Bush +9
CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV) 9/13 - 9/15 54% 40% 3% Bush +14 Battleground (1000 LV) 9/12 - 9/15 49% 45% 1% Bush +4
Pew Research (725 LV) 9/11 - 9/14 47% 46% 1% Bush +1
Harris (867 LV) 9/9 - 9/13 47% 48% 2% Kerry +1
Newsweek (1003 RV) 9/9 - 9/10 49% 43% 2% Bush +6
IBD/TIPP (674 LV) 9/7 - 9/12 46% 46% 3% TIE
Zogby (1018 LV) 9/8 - 9/9 46% 42% 2% Bush +4
Time (857 LV) 9/7 - 9/9 52% 41% 3% Bush +11
AP/Ipsos (899 LV) 9/7 - 9/9 51% 46% 1% Bush +5
FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV) 9/7 - 9/8 47% 43% 3% Bush +4
ABC News/Wash Post (LV) 9/6 - 9/8 52% 43% 2% Bush +9
Pew Research (745 LV) 9/8 - 9/10 54% 38% 2% Bush +16
CBS News (909 RV) 9/6 - 9/8 49% 42% 1% Bush +7
CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV) 9/3 - 9/5 52% 45% 1% Bush +7
Newsweek (1,008 RV) 9/2 - 9/3 52% 41% 3% Bush +11


This really doesn't look good for KERRY.
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  #49 (permalink)  
Old 10-17-2004, 05:48 PM
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Default Ken, you don't get it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KenLay";p=&quot View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hansmoleman";p=&quot View Post
Out of 56 pollings done, 47 of them had Bush in the lead, and five had it at a tie. Only four polls showed Kerry leading.

If that isn't a clear consensus that Kerry is losing and Bush is winning, I really don't know what is. I only hope that for once you can open your mind to reality, it's calling you. And so far you have refused to listen.
Name one president who was re-elected with job approval below 50%. Take your time, I can wait till November 2nd.


Ken, you still don't get it. Overwhelmingly when one is asked WHO DO YOU TRUST to lead the war on terror? Bush wins HANDS DOWN. No one within their right mind is going to walk into a polling booth, when they have the war on terror as the NUMBER ONE most crucial issue & cast a vote for John Kerry.

Also, who do you like better? Bush wins again. Who has a better character & stands firm on issues. Bush wins again.

With these polls reflecting who people are really going to vote for. Your man is going to lose in a very BIG way.


PS These polls are based on likely voters, this election is going to be decided by registered voters whether you like it or not. The turn out is going to be huge. These polls were taken during the last 2-3 days - right in the middle of the "Lesbian" controversy which gave bush a 2% bounce. The bounce will fade in 3-5 days, nobody's going to vote based on this Kerry's comment. Not even evangelicals who are certainly also not going to vote for a Lesbian family in the WH.
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  #50 (permalink)  
Old 10-17-2004, 10:09 PM
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Default This is hilarious

Ken Lay posts 80 different polls every day. Now that all of them show Bush with the lead he tries talking about approval ratings.
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ANWR Exploration Republicans: 91% Supported. Democrats: 86% Opposed.
Coal-to-liquid R's: 90% YES. D's: 78% NO.
Oil Shale Exploration R's: 90% YES. D's: 86% NO.
Outer Continental Shelf Exploration R's: 81% YES. D's: 83% NO.
Increased Refinery Capacity R's: 97% YES. D's: 96% NO

SUMMARY: 91% of House Republicans have historically voted to increase the production of America’s own oil and gas. 86% of House Democrats have historically voted against.
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