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Old 10-01-2008, 04:34 PM
Calminian Calminian is offline
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Default Obama's Bounce and the Financial Crisis

Right when the news broke, there was an almost immediate change in the polls from McCain being moderately up, to Obama being comfortably up. Obama got right in front of it and explained that this was all the result of Bush and republican policies (and of course the media never called him on it). I think people were so disgusted with the whole thing, they decided break for Obama in hopes for some kind of change. But now YouTube is starting to light up with more and more evidence, that this was actually a democrat scandal. Many republicans (including McCain) warned about this and tried to do something about it, but were blocked by mocking democrats. And now, thanks to YouTube, the cat is out of the bag. Information about this is still not widely known, but I wonder if this is causing the polls to tighten back up. It seems that Obama got a very decisive panic bump that is now subsiding. (see attached thumbnail)

In fact I'm wondering if this scandal may eventually, after the word gets out, be the deciding factor for McCain/Palin. Just thinking out loud.
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Last edited by Calminian; 10-01-2008 at 04:53 PM.
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Old 10-01-2008, 05:01 PM
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The problem is there is too much blame to go around, with the bulk of it landing on the Republicans for their handling of the economy for the last eight years.

The Dems protected Fannie/Freddie and encouraged them to create programs for low-income home buyers.

But the banks, regulators and deregulation did the rest. Fannie/Freddie are only a small part of the story, and indeed they're mostly victims of the very same things that are bringing down the banking system. Fannie/Freddie didn't kill AIG, or the investment banks. Fannie/Freddie aren't the reason the administration has put together an $800 billion bailout.

So McCain/Palin can try to pin this on Obama, but I think it'll end up tarring the GOP brand more than it will hurt Obama.

Never mind that while the economic crisis has hurt McCain, a significant part of the sea change in the polls, IMO, also has to do with the Palin pick, the first debate and McCain's bizarre and ineffectual response to the bailout bill. The first questions his judgement, the second calmed worries about Obama as Commander in Chief, and the last raised questions both about McCain's ability to handle economic problems and his ability to keep his head in a crisis.

Those things aren't going to go away because of some videos on YouTube.
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Last edited by raytri; 10-01-2008 at 05:13 PM.
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Old 10-01-2008, 05:42 PM
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Obama was able to show great leadership by becoming invisible, and it worked. The old media is shamelessly promoting him and that is more than enough to cover all warts. Pelosi would gladly sell the country's economic future down the river for slim partisan gain and it will never see the light of day in the old media.

McLame had to be perfect to pull this off and he's not up to the task.
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Old 10-01-2008, 06:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raytri View Post
The problem is there is too much blame to go around, with the bulk of it landing on the Republicans for their handling of the economy for the last eight years.
There is, to be sure, but democrats originally got out there and blamed republican policies. Now we find out that democrat policies actually caused this. Particularly, their policy of using the race card to block attempts to fix this.

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banks, regulators and deregulation did the rest. Fannie/Freddie are only a small part of the story....
Not according to democrats like Dodd. Just about everyone agrees this is primarily a fannie freddie problem. And now we find out dems were in bed with them. That's a huge political bomb that starting to go off.

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Originally Posted by raytri View Post
Never mind that while the economic crisis has hurt McCain, a significant part of the sea change in the polls, IMO, also has to do with the Palin pick, the first debate and McCain's bizarre and ineffectual response to the bailout bill.
McCain won the debate and the Palin pick has been very successful. This bounce is 100% about the economy. And as people continue to learn the truth, Obama is going to continue to suffer losses.
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Old 10-01-2008, 06:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Radio Refugee View Post
Obama was able to show great leadership by becoming invisible, and it worked. The old media is shamelessly promoting him and that is more than enough to cover all warts. Pelosi would gladly sell the country's economic future down the river for slim partisan gain and it will never see the light of day in the old media.

McLame had to be perfect to pull this off and he's not up to the task.
I will agree that this is McCain and Palin's ball to fumble.
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Old 10-01-2008, 06:14 PM
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Not according to democrats like Dodd. Just about everyone agrees this is primarily a fannie freddie problem.
Fannie/Freddie did not cause the collapse of the banking system. The $800 billion bailout is not because of Fannie/Freddie. They are *part* of the problem, but not the biggest part.

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McCain won the debate and the Palin pick has been very successful.
Whatever you say. I'm not even going to try to reason with you if you're going to make claims like that.
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Old 10-01-2008, 07:45 PM
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Look guys, I know you want to believe the Obama won the debate, and Palin fell apart. After all that's what your favorite media personalities told you. But the fact is they were winning until the financial news hit. You are simply wishfully thinking.
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Old 10-01-2008, 08:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calminian View Post
Look guys, I know you want to believe the Obama won the debate, and Palin fell apart. After all that's what your favorite media personalities told you. But the fact is they were winning until the financial news hit. You are simply wishfully thinking.
Um, actually, McCain was enjoying the natural bump that occurs after the Republican convention, and the luck of the Palin bump that has long passed diminished. If you go back to ANY time before the RNC, Obama has consistently lead and has actually been THIS far ahead at different points in the election. Basically, Obama has simply erased the RNC/Palin bump and is back to where he was before. At teh same time, McCain is quite simply out of ammunition that might put him ahead. The foreign policy debate is over, the economy is in the case, and no one cares about Iraq and terrorists right now. Obama will cruise to 270 and he may very well win the biggest landslide since Reagan.
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Old 10-01-2008, 08:29 PM
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Um, actually, McCain was enjoying the natural bump that occurs after the Republican convention, and the luck of the Palin bump that has long passed diminished.
Yeah, it was just a coincidence that it ended right when the mortgage industry went boom.

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Old 10-02-2008, 06:01 AM
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Yeah, it was just a coincidence that it ended right when the mortgage industry went boom.
You're absolutely right, it made the race for president all of the sudden about issues, rather than lipstick and pastors, which is the ONLY thing that has given McCain points in this election. Any week that has been about issues and leadership has ended up with Obama gaining ground and taking a bigger and bigger lead.

Shouldn't that be obvious to you that Obama is THE guy to lead us on issues and leadership, since a larger and larger majority of people are realizing it everyday.

I'd be the first to vote McCain and his jerkoff mentality to be the host of a celebrity roast, simply on his attacking, lying, (*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) style. But for President, I'll pass, and its pretty obvious America will too.
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