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Old 10-04-2008, 06:40 AM
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Originally Posted by BFOJ View Post
Put your faith in polls and the liberal news that you read about people's opinions. I'll put my trust in the real people, the majority that never gets asked but have opinions quite the contrary and will be the ones that show up to vote. McCain/Palin 55%, Obama/Biden 41%, Other 4%.
hmmm..putting faith is the ones that "never get asked"..and concluding statistics from the answers/data nobody ever obtained. hmmmmm....sounds like McCains tax break tactics for the rich that didn't ask for the tax break.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 10-04-2008, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by BFOJ View Post
The percentages I use are what I forecast will be the actual numbers on November 4. About as good a guess as the paid polling companies numbers.
You don't understand what polls are. The Gallup Poll (I won't speak for the rest of them) is a snapshot with very, very good accuracy (in the 85-95% range) of depicting what would happen if the election occurred on the day the poll is held.

It's not a guess, nor is it a projection of what will happen on November 4. It is an estimation of what would happen TODAY. People in the know don't look at polls to gauge who will win, but rather who won today and who has won the most days in the past.

Given that, you can surmise reasonably that since Obama has beaten McCain 95% of the days in the last FIVE MONTHS, that sentiment for voting for Obama is significant and would require a serious blow to his image in the remaining week or so to debase this.
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Old 10-04-2008, 10:27 AM
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You don't understand what polls are.

I do understand what polls are, like I said it's my projection, nothing more, nothing less.

Given that, you can surmise reasonably that since Obama has beaten McCain 95% of the days in the last FIVE MONTHS, that sentiment for voting for Obama is significant and would require a serious blow to his image in the remaining week or so to debase this.
Sorry, surmise means "a thought or idea based on scanty evidence" or "To infer (something) without sufficiently conclusive evidence." I'm still going to conjecture that McCain/Palin will win on November 4, based on my own polling data. I've picked and voted for the last 9 Presidential winners, so I'm going for 10. That's enough statistical data since I'm batting 100%, much better than Gallup or any other poll.
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Old 10-04-2008, 08:44 PM
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That's enough statistical data since I'm batting 100%, much better than Gallup or any other poll.
Heh, Yeah...ok, so you still don't know what a poll is if you are positing that Gallup predicts the winner of the election.

Nite nite, uber winner.
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Old 10-04-2008, 08:57 PM
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Default Yeah. . .

I was wondering how we went from talking about sub-prime mortgages and the current economy to talking about energy. I don't think she even used a transition to relate the two. She just decided she wanted to talk about something else. Quite frankly I wish Gwen Ifill had been a bit more direct like Katie Couric. Maybe it was a good tactic by the McCain campaign. Accuse Gwen Ifill of being partial to Obama so when debate night came, in her effort to prove she was impartial, she was too soft on Sarah Palin and allowed her to talk about pretty much whatever she wanted instead of trying to get her to answer some of the very direct questions.
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Old 10-04-2008, 09:05 PM
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Clearly Biden won the debate. Sarah Palin did however perform better than expected. Unfortunately for her, there is still a month til the election. She'll probably have more interviews, and lose anything she gained during the debate.
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Old 10-05-2008, 03:55 AM
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there is still a month til the election
Yes, plenty of time for more Biden gaffes and Obama displaying his lack of leadership and experience.
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Old 10-05-2008, 03:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Pro Deus Et Patria View Post
Heh, Yeah...ok, so you still don't know what a poll is if you are positing that Gallup predicts the winner of the election.

Nite nite, uber winner.
I hope you slept well, stay tune as each poll fluctuates and disagree with one another during the next month. My poll will remain contant at 100% accuracy.
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Old 10-05-2008, 06:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Pro Deus Et Patria View Post
You don't understand what polls are. The Gallup Poll (I won't speak for the rest of them) is a snapshot with very, very good accuracy (in the 85-95% range) of depicting what would happen if the election occurred on the day the poll is held.

It's not a guess, nor is it a projection of what will happen on November 4. It is an estimation of what would happen TODAY. People in the know don't look at polls to gauge who will win, but rather who won today and who has won the most days in the past.

Given that, you can surmise reasonably that since Obama has beaten McCain 95% of the days in the last FIVE MONTHS, that sentiment for voting for Obama is significant and would require a serious blow to his image in the remaining week or so to debase this.

If polls were actually indicative of the future, Hillary Clinton would be the DNC nominee for President and I would be on the next non-stop flight to Las Vegas to place my bets.

The more accurate indicator is the money. It is also fallible, but, it is still more accurate that polls. The exception is when a candidate is self financed. Mitt Romney put a lot of his own money in the primary campaign and he didnt win the nomination. Hillary loaned her campaign millions to no avail. The donated money quantity the candidates recieve tends to be the most reliable predictor.

Obama leads in the money pit far and above McCain.

It's historical. Check it out.
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Old 10-05-2008, 06:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Callback View Post
I was wondering how we went from talking about sub-prime mortgages and the current economy to talking about energy. I don't think she even used a transition to relate the two. She just decided she wanted to talk about something else. Quite frankly I wish Gwen Ifill had been a bit more direct like Katie Couric. Maybe it was a good tactic by the McCain campaign. Accuse Gwen Ifill of being partial to Obama so when debate night came, in her effort to prove she was impartial, she was too soft on Sarah Palin and allowed her to talk about pretty much whatever she wanted instead of trying to get her to answer some of the very direct questions.
What do you actually expect of a blonde wannabe?
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