I don't think I've ever seen a race fall apart this far, this fast.

In the Real Clear Politics poll averages:

Obama is up 4 points in Florida, from being down more than 6 points just 3 weeks ago:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-418.html

He's up 4.8 points in Virginia, after being down 2.3 points:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-551.html

He's now up in Missouri -- a statistical tie, but that's a state McCain has led in from the start and where Obama was down *seven* points just three weeks ago:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-545.html

He's slightly ahead in North Carolina, after being down *nine* points three weeks ago:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-334.html

He's up *eight* in New Hampshire,, a state where McCain was within 2 points just *three days* ago:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-195.html

He's up 9.4 in Pennsylvania, another state McCain hoped to flip red:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-244.html

He's even up 3.4 in Ohio, although McCain can take heart that the most recent poll on RCP shows McCain leading by 1.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-400.html

I would not have believed this just two weeks ago, but we are seriously looking at an Obama landslide.

In that environment, I think McCain going negative will simply tar his campaign -- and himself -- to no avail. McCain is going to abandon the last shred of what made him attractive to swing voters, and it still won't help him. Obama is simply too far ahead in too many states.

Intense negative advertising only works when two things are true:

1. The target isn't thoroughly known;

2. Most swing voters haven't yet made up their mind.

And even then, it usually only swings things by a point or two.

The problem for McCain is too little, too late. Obama has been in the public eye for more than a year now; anyone who was going to be swayed by Ayers or Wright has already made the switch. And the huge swing in recent weeks indicates that a lot of people have made up their mind -- and they've decided to vote for Obama. Once people make that decision, it's very hard to make them change it. Indeed, a hail of negative advertising might simply confirm it, as they take displeasure in seeing their chosen candidate slimed. Many voters, having been warned the slime is coming, will simply tune out the unpleasantries and hit the voting booth in November with their minds unchanged.

And even if he were able to swing things 2 points his way in each state, he'd still lose -- unless the margin of error in each case is totally in his direction.

__________________
Man up.

McCain just does not have a clue. I've been saying for months that swiftboating will not work in the information age. People have immediate access to too many source of information for it to be effective. McCain has defeated himself by insisting on swiftboating and by picking a totally unqualified VP.

__________________
He who angers you, controls you!

McCain will die knowing the American people rejected him again.

__________________
"I think the deregulation was probably helpful to the growth of our economy."
-Sen. John McCain 09/22/2008

But swiftboating did work in 2000 & 04. Against McCain in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 so why wouldn' it work today ? Swiftboating is incideouis and works in the long run like a cancer.

__________________
" Sarah Palin HAS elected BARACK Obama THE PRESIDENT"

it was the George Shrubodub's swiftboatering.

__________________
" Sarah Palin HAS elected BARACK Obama THE PRESIDENT"

Well, I'm hoping that the American people have woken up given Bush's idiocy.

__________________
“Share everything with your brother. Do not say, ‘It is private property.’ If you share what is everlasting, you should be that much more willing to share things which do not last.”
~ The Didache

"Not to enable the poor to share in our goods is to steal from them and deprive them of life. The goods we possess are not ours, but theirs."
~St. John Chrysostom

Both of those races were much closer, and the swiftboating happened much earlier -- thus allowing the swiftboaters to define the target. The Swiftboating of Kerry began in May 2004; the swiftboating of McCain took place in South Carolina, the second Republican primary.

If McCain wanted to destroy Obama with negativity, he should have started in July or August.

__________________
Man up.

you don't even have a victory in the bag. Do not forget the racial factor.

I was at a Veteran's convention the weekend of the Obama MACAIN DEBAte and ended up having pizza and beer in a "hospitality" room just before and during the "debate". Unless the Obama supporters were too afraid to admit it I must say that 95 % of the people in the room not only said that they were for McCAIN but many made racists remarks about Obama. This was by definition and composition an all White veteran's group that I belong to since it is based on a EUROPEAN ethnic GROUP so no one was afraid to speak up and be openly racist. The Demoncrats were not less racist han the Republicans.

__________________
" Sarah Palin HAS elected BARACK Obama THE PRESIDENT"

More household's have computers and daily email these days - and the media now reports on the lies 24/7. Everybody and their neighbor knows that Obama / Ayres is a lie, that Obama isn't a Muslim, that Obama was born in the US, etc. McCain never dreamed all of that ammo would be exposed this long before the campaign and coming back on him -- and we are a month out from the election. Continuing to try to push items (like Palin saying Obama associates with terrorists in Omaha) just paints McCain and Palin as liars when everyone already knows it isn't true. They look ridiculous.

__________________
He who angers you, controls you!

That is frightening - at least the group was were saying they are voting McCain. It would be very frightening if they were saying they were voting for Obama and were making racial comments.

__________________
He who angers you, controls you!