It Can’t Get Any Closer in the Battleground States —
Minority Turnout is Kerry Key

ALEXANDRIA, VA – Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (FMA), a Republican polling and strategic consulting firm based in Alexandria, VA, has just completed their third likely voter survey with interviews conducted ONLY in the remaining 12 battleground states.* In the three-way Presidential ballot, the race is dead tied in these crucial battleground states with BOTH President Bush and Sen. Kerry receiving 47% of the vote. Ralph Nader receives 1.6% while just 4% of the battleground state likely voters are undecided.


However, a minor, but troubling trend nonetheless for the President is the evaporating support for Ralph Nader. Nader’s support has gone from minuscule to microscopic which benefits Sen. Kerry,” said Tony Fabrizio, who served as chief pollster for Bob Dole’s ’96 Presidential campaign.

However, as the data below illustrates, when the data is weighted to reflect minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Sen. Kerry leads by 3.5% and if minority turnout is weighted to census levels Sen. Kerry’s lead expands to 5.2%

http://www.fabmac.com/FMA-2004-10-27...und-Ballot.pdf

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The war on terror involves Saddam Hussein because of the nature of Saddam Hussein, the history of Saddam Hussein, and his willingness to terrorize himself. George W. Bush

According to Gallup......the #1 issue with voters is TERRORISM. The #2 issue with voters is the ECONOMY. Bush continues to blast Kerry out of the water on terrorism with 59% of likely voters supporting him on that issue, while only 37% support Kerry on that issue.

And even on the number 2 issue.....the Economy, Bush has a slight advantage: 49% support compared to Kerry's 48% support on the issue.

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"This is a time for a national imperative not to fail in Iraq." Condoleeza Rice, January 11, 2007

According to Gallup the election is over, Bush won by a double digit margin. Too bad that Gallup consistenly polls 40% republicans and 30% democrats (which has nothing to do with reality) and has been an outlier 18 times out of 20 during this election cycle. Too bad that at exactly this time four years ago Gallup had Bush leading Gore by 13%.

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The war on terror involves Saddam Hussein because of the nature of Saddam Hussein, the history of Saddam Hussein, and his willingness to terrorize himself. George W. Bush

They may have. But that was BEFORE the Thursday surprise by the Democrats who put the old DUI charge out there. That did some damage. Mainly because the American people didn't know Bush that well at the time. Now....I doubt something like that would bring his numbers down so much....as people know him and already trust him....or not.

So...how come you've turned off of Gallup? Weren't you swearing by them at one time? Is it when the polling changed over to Bush? Bottom line is Gallup is very well respected among just about everybody....and they were one of only about TWO polling organizations that was right about the 2000 race in the final polling they did just before election day.

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"This is a time for a national imperative not to fail in Iraq." Condoleeza Rice, January 11, 2007

Nope.

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The war on terror involves Saddam Hussein because of the nature of Saddam Hussein, the history of Saddam Hussein, and his willingness to terrorize himself. George W. Bush

Aside from Florida's cuban population rates, minority voters tend to have low turnout.

Catz

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I love the smell of napalm in the morning...It smells like victory.

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Bugalugs: "people join the military because they are stupid and gullible."

In RealClearPolitics.com........which is averages of all the polling, Bush is ahead in almost ALL the Battleground states:

• Florida: Bush + 1.2
• Ohio: Bush + 0.2
• Pennsylvania: Kerry +4.2
• Wisconsin: Bush + 1.0
• Iowa: Bush + 3.4
• Minnesota: Bush + 0.7
• Michigan: Kerry +3.2
• New Mexico: Bush + 2.6
• New Hampshire: Kerry +2.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

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"This is a time for a national imperative not to fail in Iraq." Condoleeza Rice, January 11, 2007

"Aside from Florida's cuban population rates, minority voters tend to have low turnout"

20 Hispanic Groups announced their support for George Bush today... including the largest Hispanic Group in the nation...

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I was banned from godlike productions... and loved it.

SWING STATES?

that's the big problem with the presidential elections - what about the rest of states?

why does Iowa and New Hampshire get to pick the candidates and Ohio and Florida the President?

If it was really one person one vote then McCain would be enjoying his second victory on Tuesday.

Absolutely, that's exactly in line with the republican pollster's observations at the beginning of the thread who says it's a dead heat in battleground states...However ... when the data is weighted to reflect minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Sen. Kerry leads by 3.5% and if minority turnout is weighted to census levels Sen. Kerry’s lead expands to 5.2%


That does not take into account new voters among whom Kerry has a 20% margin and the fact that majority of undecides (65-80%) break for the challenger.

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The war on terror involves Saddam Hussein because of the nature of Saddam Hussein, the history of Saddam Hussein, and his willingness to terrorize himself. George W. Bush