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Old 05-28-2007, 11:09 AM
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To answer your question, Revolutionary...Al Gore is a good propagandist.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sebbysteiny";p=&quot View Post
Except for the fact that it is wrong on evey sceintific level.

Wrong, you say! Stop being so arrogant. There are always two sides to every story, right?

I accept that criticism. Of course there are two sides to man made global warming; the right side and the wrong side, the scientifically justified side and the pseudo scientific intellectual junk side.
I have no idea what you're saying...

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  #132 (permalink)  
Old 05-28-2007, 02:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivan";p=&quot View Post
To answer your question, Revolutionary...Al Gore is a good propagandist.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), to evaluate the risk of climate change brought on by humans, based mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.[1] The Panel is only open to members of the WMO and UNEP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergo...Climate_Change


Way before Gore's time.



As for the temperature changes see the attached graph. Courtesy of the encyclopedia as well.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Warming
Attached Images
File Type: png 280px-global_warming_predictions.png (35.1 KB, 3 views)
File Type: png 280px-2000_year_temperature_comparison.png (43.2 KB, 3 views)
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Old 05-28-2007, 03:18 PM
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.....Touche..... I didn't mean that he was the only reason, but he's contributed to adding fuel to the fire most in the past few years.
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Old 11-17-2007, 02:00 PM
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Default All sceptical views are adressed??? You jest!

Quote:
Originally Posted by MannieD";p=&quot View Post
Nice summary of GW from New Scientist.
Quote:
So for those who are not sure what to believe, here is our round-up of the 26 most common climate myths and misconceptions.
I haven't read it all yet but it looks like all the skeptic's issues are addressed.
They're adressed---very sloppily. They distort the truth concerning the computer models, the alleged consensus, and the make-up and honesty of the IPCC.

The computer models have such grave shortcomings that reknowned physicist Freeman Dyson informs us (about those very climate models), "They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in." Those models have failed time and again to come up with an accurated set of projections concerning the Earth's climate. In real science, when something that fails so miserably at simulating reality (best we can do or not), it fails to be science and must be disregarded as such. Yet, this is what we're to base billion-dollar policies on?!?

Constantly referenced is Naomi Oreskes research when the consensus is cited. Her research has since been updated. Shulte did a search of the same database and the same search terms as Oreskes used earlier this year. His search showed no consensus exists in the refereed literature. 7% of the papers he reviewed openly embraced the supposed consensus view, 6% openly opposed it. The rest gave no open opinion, and 48% gave no opinion at all, even implied. There is no "consensus" of scientists on this matter, let alone such a one as it's presented to the public (as believing that there is an imminent "crisis" if human industry is permitted to continue to produce GHG's).

The IPCC doesn't consist of 2500 scientists. It consists of 600 scientists, 600 expert reviewers, and 1300 government-appointed bureaucrats. That's from the press-releases from the IPCC itself, accompanying the February release of the IPCC's "Summary for Policymakers," which is what every reporter actually reads and quotes from. It's written by the bureaucrats, not scientists; in fact, it's not even reviewed by the scientists.

The IPCC isn't some honest scientific body. It's largely a political body, as evidenced from some of it's actions and it's lack of transparency. It never publishes the scientific reports first, a glaring mis-step for a scientific body. It publishes its "Summary" first (begging the question, how do you summarize a work not yet finished?), not the scientific work first.

The next most glaring action of the IPCC is its actions concerning that poster-child of bad science, the "hockey stick" graph (called the Mann or MBH graph in scientific circles). The IPCC almost immediately accepted this bad science as gospel truth, and published it in its 2001 summary as definitive proof that global warming was caused by human industry. As the studies mounted, showing the graph's glaring errors, the IPCC simply ignored the whole thing. It's 2007, and scientists accept that MBH is completely incorrect; although now advocates downplay its importance (which can't be done, I'll show why in a moment). The IPCC, however, never even acknowledged its mistake in accepting it as definitive proof, which shows an organization that's insulated itself from reality.

Next came the resignation of Dr. Chris Landsea, one of the world's finest hurricanologists. Dr. Landsea resigned from the IPCC because he viewed it as having become too politicized (especially in the section where his expertise is used). Dr. Landsea's odyssey began when he reviewed Kevin Trenberth's actions in regard to voicing the science to laymen. Trenberth made many remarks concerning frequency and intensity of hurricanes in relation to global warming that were far outside the bounds of the science; which prompted Dr. Landsea to bring his concerns to the attention of the IPCC, who casually dismissed and ignored them. This is yet another sign of an organization that has lost its scientific integrity.

The odyssey continues with the Bush administration's attempted appointment of Dr. Paul Reiter to the panel, which the IPCC attempted to veto the choice. Dr. Reiter is a very well-respected scientist as it regards his area of expertise in disease-related insectology. His outspoken criticism of the alarmist claim that global warming would cause more outbreaks of insect-related disease is the basic reason for such.

These problems within the IPCC, and more, are reasons why this agency should be disbanded and disregarded. It has no oversight within the UN, to assure that it would not become what it has---a political body. Its ready acceptance of a paper as definitive proof, bad methodology in publishing its reports, gross lack of leadership within it, and rejection of legitimate concerns of abuse of its authority demonstrate that it's no longer a purely scientific advisory body, but an advocacy group.

Advocates have tried continually to minimize the damage presented in the exposure of the bad science behind MBH. Anyone with half-logic and a little knowledge of the issue can point out the problem. It's that if the climate showed greater variability with relatively stable GHG concentrations in pre-industrial times (as numerous papers do), then it means that natural variability (through processes we still don't comprehend) is greater than it's credited for, and the probability that human contributions to GHG's cause the observed warming are greatly exaggerated.

That, in fact, is what appears to be the truth, and it's emerging within the scientific journals.
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  #135 (permalink)  
Old 11-18-2007, 01:45 PM
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Default opinions without facts won't convince me

Quote:
Originally Posted by 4Liberty";p=&quot View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by MannieD";p=&quot View Post
Nice summary of GW from New Scientist.
Quote:
So for those who are not sure what to believe, here is our round-up of the 26 most common climate myths and misconceptions.
I haven't read it all yet but it looks like all the skeptic's issues are addressed.
They're adressed---very sloppily. They distort the truth concerning the computer models, the alleged consensus, and the make-up and honesty of the IPCC.

The computer models have such grave shortcomings that reknowned physicist Freeman Dyson informs us (about those very climate models), "They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in." Those models have failed time and again to come up with an accurated set of projections concerning the Earth's climate. In real science, when something that fails so miserably at simulating reality (best we can do or not), it fails to be science and must be disregarded as such. Yet, this is what we're to base billion-dollar policies on?!?
Except that Dyson also writes
Quote:
One of the main causes of warming is the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting from our burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal and natural gas.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4Liberty";p=&quot View Post
Constantly referenced is Naomi Oreskes research when the consensus is cited. Her research has since been updated. Shulte did a search of the same database and the same search terms as Oreskes used earlier this year. His search showed no consensus exists in the refereed literature. 7% of the papers he reviewed openly embraced the supposed consensus view, 6% openly opposed it. The rest gave no open opinion, and 48% gave no opinion at all, even implied. There is no "consensus" of scientists on this matter, let alone such a one as it's presented to the public (as believing that there is an imminent "crisis" if human industry is permitted to continue to produce GHG's).
Hard to respond when you have no link to Schulte's survey. If you post it, I'll read it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4Liberty";p=&quot View Post
The IPCC doesn't consist of 2500 scientists. It consists of 600 scientists, 600 expert reviewers, and 1300 government-appointed bureaucrats. That's from the press-releases from the IPCC itself, accompanying the February release of the IPCC's "Summary for Policymakers," which is what every reporter actually reads and quotes from. It's written by the bureaucrats, not scientists; in fact, it's not even reviewed by the scientists.
I don't see the claim that the IPCC "consists of 2500 scientists" anywhere in my link. Perhaps you'd like to direct me to it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4Liberty";p=&quot View Post
The IPCC isn't some honest scientific body. It's largely a political body, as evidenced from some of it's actions and it's lack of transparency. It never publishes the scientific reports first, a glaring mis-step for a scientific body. It publishes its "Summary" first (begging the question, how do you summarize a work not yet finished?), not the scientific work first.
What evidence? What lack of transparency? Your claims are irrelevant without evidence.
A work can be finished but not yet published. You can read a manuscript of a book without the book actually being published. Here is the procedure. Note the science is done before the report is released.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4Liberty";p=&quot View Post
The next most glaring action of the IPCC is its actions concerning that poster-child of bad science, the "hockey stick" graph (called the Mann or MBH graph in scientific circles). The IPCC almost immediately accepted this bad science as gospel truth, and published it in its 2001 summary as definitive proof that global warming was caused by human industry. As the studies mounted, showing the graph's glaring errors, the IPCC simply ignored the whole thing. It's 2007, and scientists accept that MBH is completely incorrect; although now advocates downplay its importance (which can't be done, I'll show why in a moment). The IPCC, however, never even acknowledged its mistake in accepting it as definitive proof, which shows an organization that's insulated itself from reality.
This is totally inaccurate. from the working group 1 report
Quote:
The ‘hockey stick’ reconstruction of Mann et al. (1999) has
been the subject of several critical studies. Soon and Baliunas (2003) challenged the conclusion that the 20th century was the warmest at a hemispheric average scale.
Other proxy evidence has confirmed the "hockey stick" (see link). IPPC concludes
Quote:
The weight of current multi-proxy evidence, therefore, suggests greater 20th-century warmth, in comparison with temperature levels of the previous 400 years, than was shown in the TAR. On the evidence of the previous and four new reconstructions that reach back more than 1 kyr, it is likely that the 20th century was the warmest in at least the past 1.3 kyr. Considering the recent instrumental and longer proxy evidence together, it is very likely that average NH temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were higher than for any other 50-year period in the last 500 years. Greater uncertainty associated with proxy-based temperature estimates for individual years means that it is more difficult to gauge the significance, or recedence, of the extreme warm years observed in the recent instrumental record, such as 1998 and 2005, in the context of the last millennium.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4Liberty";p=&quot View Post
Next came the resignation of Dr. Chris Landsea, one of the world's finest hurricanologists. Dr. Landsea resigned from the IPCC because he viewed it as having become too politicized (especially in the section where his expertise is used). Dr. Landsea's odyssey began when he
reviewed Kevin Trenberth's actions in regard to voicing the science to laymen. Trenberth made many remarks concerning frequency and intensity of hurricanes in relation to global warming that were far outside the bounds of the science; which prompted Dr. Landsea to bring his concerns to the attention of the IPCC, who casually dismissed and ignored them. This is
yet another sign of an organization that has lost its scientific integrity.
Controversy was between Landsea and Trenberth, whose comments were made without the backing of the IPCC. The IPCC included Landsea's research in the report and agreed with him on the influence of warming on hurricanes. From the IPCC report:
Quote:
These studies have been challenged by several scientists (e.g., Landsea, 2005; Chan, 2006) who have questioned the quality of the data and the start date of the 1970s. In addition, different centres may assign different intensities to the same storm.
and IPCC's conclusion Page 50
Quote:
These deficiencies preclude a stronger conclusion than an assessment that anthropogenic factors more likely than not have contributed to an increase in tropical cyclone intensity
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4Liberty";p=&quot View Post
The odyssey continues with the Bush administration's attempted appointment of Dr. Paul Reiter to the panel, which the IPCC attempted to veto the choice. Dr. Reiter is a very well-respected scientist as it regards his area of expertise in disease-related insectology. His outspoken criticism of the alarmist claim that global warming would cause more outbreaks of insect-related disease is the basic reason for such.
Link ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4Liberty";p=&quot View Post
These problems within the IPCC, and more, are reasons why this agency should be disbanded and disregarded. It has no oversight within the UN, to assure that it would not become what it has---a political body. Its ready acceptance of a paper as definitive proof, bad methodology in publishing its reports, gross lack of leadership within it, and rejection of legitimate concerns of abuse of its authority demonstrate that it's no longer a purely
scientific advisory body, but an advocacy group. Advocates have tried continually to minimize the damage presented in the exposure of the bad
science behind MBH. Anyone with half-logic and a little knowledge of the issue can point out the problem. It's that if the climate showed greater variability with relatively stable GHG concentrations in pre-industrial times (as numerous papers do), then it means that natural variability (through processes we still don't comprehend) is greater than it's credited for,
and the probability that human contributions to GHG's cause the observed warming are greatly exaggerated.
That, in fact, is what appears to be the truth, and it's emerging within the scientific journals.
Lots of opinion from inaccurate statements with no links to back up your opinions.
Your claims of "problems within the IPCC" or "ready acceptance of a paper as definitve proof, bad methodology ..." has been backed up with zero evidence.
You claims of "They're (New Scientists debunking) adressed (sic)---very sloppily." has been backed with inaccuracies.
As I've suggested to other posters: Read the science studies, not the rightwingnutjob's (Livefree, I like that term ) blogs
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Old 11-18-2007, 10:58 PM
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Default Faulty measurements

Recently, earlier in 2007, a Chico, California Meteorologist found that many of the temperature measuring sites were in locations that could devices were in metal sheds out in the middle of a hot patch of land, near the take off end of airport runways, thus picking up hot jet exhaust, near HVAC systems on roofs with heating pipes and equipment nearby. This is skewed data for testing and validating global warming.
Now, I'm not saying these temperatures have no use, they just have no use in measuring the global climate change Al Gore and other claim is occuring.
Yes, I conceed that man may play a very small role is localized warming i.e. large cities or industrial sites. However, if you look at the entire Earth and solar system that do have a major impact on our Earths temperatures, we are but a grain of sand on the beach in comparison.
How can we "compete" with the sun, moon, oceans, winds, rain, mountain ranges, natural structures and heavenly bodies so massive and powerful that our "heat sources" or pollutants are but a BB gun fired at an elephant in comparison. We have but a "second" of time; geologic reference, to draw upon. It is only in the last 150 or so years that we have any real accurate, scientific devices to measure temperatures, compare them, analyze how cities, pollutants, natural wild fires, hurricanes, volcanic events, ice status (mass, temperature, salinity, size, integrity), measure how past events affected the planet by soil, water, ice, tree, atmosphere and man made structures analysis to base any of our evidence on.
Even if the small effect we may have on global climate is measureable and occurring, I think it is going to be "adjusted" by the natural events of planet Earth itself.
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  #137 (permalink)  
Old 12-12-2007, 05:26 AM
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Default Ice free Arctic

Looks like the Arctic Ocean could be ice free by 2013.BBC
Quote:
"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
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  #138 (permalink)  
Old 12-12-2007, 01:37 PM
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Default The dangers are exaggerated

There is no question that global warming is happening, it is the fact that it is dangerous that is over-exaggerated.

Many environmentalists say that storms will be more violent, yet there has been no real increase in storm activity over the past 100 years. Environmentalists(especially Al-Gore) will often cut graphs off at 1970 or slightly earlier to support their case, but take a look at data for the last 100 years.

The percentage of tropical cyclones which touch land has decreased

Global warming has had no effect on the amount of major Atlantic hurricanes

The number of severe tornadoes has not been increasing either

Unlike many environmentalists will tell you there have been higher insurance losses because of hurricanes in the past.

The melting of ice is nothing new, it started in the early 1800s


I don't buy global warming's consequences. It seems everyone wants to blame global warming for the world's problems when in fact the problems having nothing to do with global warming.
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  #139 (permalink)  
Old 12-15-2007, 07:54 AM
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Default science agrees

Quote:
Originally Posted by greatamerican128";p=&quot View Post
There is no question that global warming is happening, it is the fact that it is dangerous that is over-exaggerated.

Many environmentalists say that storms will be more violent, yet there has been no real increase in storm activity over the past 100 years. Environmentalists(especially Al-Gore) will often cut graphs off at 1970 or slightly earlier to support their case, but take a look at data for the last 100 years.

The percentage of tropical cyclones which touch land has decreased

Global warming has had no effect on the amount of major Atlantic hurricanes

The number of severe tornadoes has not been increasing either

Unlike many environmentalists will tell you there have been higher insurance losses because of hurricanes in the past.

The melting of ice is nothing new, it started in the early 1800s


I don't buy global warming's consequences. It seems everyone wants to blame global warming for the world's problems when in fact the problems having nothing to do with global warming.
Science pretty much agrees with you on all you're links except the last one. Is that last image/graph of one glacier or all the glaciers? It would not surprise me if one glacier does not match the CO2 trend. It would surprise me if none of the glaciers match the trend. It would help if you linked to the stories instead of just the graphs.
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Old 01-11-2008, 01:20 AM
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Default Hurricane intensity

Quote:
Originally Posted by greatamerican128 View Post
There is no question that global warming is happening, it is the fact that it is dangerous that is over-exaggerated.

Many environmentalists say that storms will be more violent, yet there has been no real increase in storm activity over the past 100 years. Environmentalists(especially Al-Gore) will often cut graphs off at 1970 or slightly earlier to support their case, but take a look at data for the last 100 years.

The percentage of tropical cyclones which touch land has decreased

Global warming has had no effect on the amount of major Atlantic hurricanes

RealClimate is more emphatic on the point of a connection. As you scroll down particularly note the graph connection between SST(Sea surface temperature) and PDI(Power dissipation Index - basically intensity).
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...03906-f1.2.jpg

The number of severe tornadoes has not been increasing either

Unlike many environmentalists will tell you there have been higher insurance losses because of hurricanes in the past.

The melting of ice is nothing new, it started in the early 1800s


I don't buy global warming's consequences. It seems everyone wants to blame global warming for the world's problems when in fact the problems having nothing to do with global warming.
Hurricane frequency is discussed above but not intensity. Tentatively the IPCC leans in favor of global warming increasing hurricane intensity. It would make sense to me. With the oceans and air warming presumably one expression of that energy increase would be in higher energy hurricanes. Certainly the number of Atlantic #5 hurricanes have increased fairly dramatically in recent years.

Quote:
Is global warming changing the intensity or frequency of hurricanes?

Intensity: According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), it is “more likely than not” (better than even odds) that there is a human contribution to the observed trend of hurricane intensification since the 1970s. In the future, “it is likely [better than 2 to 1 odds] that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical [sea surface temperatures]
http://www.pewclimate.org/hurricanes.cfm#change
RealClimate takes even a more emphatic position on the matter.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181

Here is a graph from the above comparing SST(Sea Surface Temperature) with PDI(Power Dissipation Index - basically hurricane intensity) over an extended period.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...03906-f1.2.jpg

Last edited by Dingo; 01-11-2008 at 01:48 AM.
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