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  #381 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2008, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by PatriotNews View Post
You just dismiss them as not being scientists which does not in truth invalidate their opinions.
Stop repeating that nonsense. The only one of your sources I have dismissed as not being a scientist is Benny Peiser, who is not a scientist but a a social anthropologist with particular research interest in human and cultural evolution. http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/

He has never published a peer-reviewed paper in scientific journal on AGW or anything else. He did once have a letter published in a scientific journal trying to discredit the work of Dr Naomi Oreskes. He later said of that letter:

"I no longer maintain this particular criticism. In addition, some of the abstracts that I included in the 34 "reject or doubt" category are very ambiguous and should not have been included...."Only [a] few abstracts explicitly reject or doubt the AGW (anthropogenic global warming) consensus which is why I have publicly withdrawn this point of my critique."

His opinion is invalidated - because he invalidated it himself.

Please stop making things up.
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  #382 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2008, 12:48 PM
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What about all of the scientists who disagree with the IPCC but are on the author's list? Or the ones on the list who aren't even scientists?

You hold a double standard when it comes to scientific credentials.
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  #383 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2008, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by SuperDinoYoshi View Post
What about all of the scientists who disagree with the IPCC but are on the author's list? Or the ones on the list who aren't even scientists?

You hold a double standard when it comes to scientific credentials.
What are my double standards? Where have I said anything about the IPCC or the scientists on it. If you want to argue - please stick to what I said - not what you think I said.
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  #384 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2008, 01:57 PM
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[quote=skeptic-f;344544]***personal attack deleted.***

We have just had the warmest winter on record and there is no evidence of global warming?

Anyway, as I have pointed out before, it doesn't matter what is causing the global warming: whether it is natural, man-made or some combination of both. Given the warming is occurring and given humanities full use (overuse, in some cases) of many of the earth's natural resources (I'm thinking of farmland, fresh water, fish stocks and similar resources here), any climate change beyond the very minor will have major, major impacts.
QUOTE]

We have just had a winter so cold that the fear over the melting polar ice caps is gone.

It does matter what is causing "Global Warming", normal cycles that have occurred in the past are no reason for concern now. It is natural so we have no concern because it will reverse itself. Every 30 years the argument goes from global warming to the next ice age.
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  #385 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2008, 02:07 PM
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Originally Posted by kscott13 View Post
You've answered most of your own question.





Our present interglacial period looks a lot like the last one, which will eventually give way to an ice age.


This graph shows how our Earth's temperature flux behaves, note that interglacial periods appear to be cyclical and what the temp. variations are in relation to each other. Both illustrate that interglacial periods tend to cycle in about 100,000 year intervals and the end of an interglacial period is precipitated by a steep rise in global temperature or (Global Warming) over the course of about 10,000 years.

The rest of your question is predicated in Global Warming being a fact. It is not a proven fact. It is still a theory argued about by scientists all over the globe. What is implicated as shown by history is that we are on the verge of entering into a new ice age, something that we cannot say will happen in about 10,000 years, but will develop over a period of about 10,000 years. If the Global Warming Theory is true and to compound this we are entering into another natural period of cooling, Global Warming would be nothing more than a small mitigation of an unstoppable force.
I really don't understand what your point is.
Yes, were are in an interglacial period.
Yes, we will enter a new iceage eventually.
Yes, anthropogenic Global Warming would probably be nothing more than a small mitigation of an unstoppable force.

But, with the coming iceage we are talking in geological timeframes and something we really can't do anything about anyway. Like Eleanorofaquitane's asteroid scenario, the liklihood that something like that will impact upon us in the next 100 or so years is very, very low. The liklihood that AGW will impact upon human habitations in the next 100 or so years is much much higher.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscott13 View Post
I guess you're not hearing the same thing I am hearing in the media about Global Warming. My assertion is that reporting on Global Warming which recently has been slanted towards groups that agree with it's premise is just another attempt at ratings, same as reporting violent events over benevolent ones in an attempt to draw more viewers.
No - I don't know what you hear in your media

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscott13 View Post
Above shows little change.
?????

From my earlier quote:
Surface temperature was rising by approximately +0.07 °C/decade over the past century and +0.17 °C/decade since 1979

The satellite data:
- RSS v3.1 finds a trend of +0.178 °C/decade
- UAH analysis finds +0.14 °C/decade.
- Fu et al finds trends (1979-2001) of +0.19 °C/decade when applied to the RSS data set.
- Vinnikov and Grody with +0.20°C per decade


0.17 - compared to 0.178, 0.14, 0.19, 0.20

That seems to be a fairly strong correlation between surface and satellite data doesn't it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscott13 View Post
This is a link to the description of the satellite I was talking about.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terra_(satellite)

This is a link to an article discussing the data it has retrieved.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...9-7583,00.html
First - I don't want to just discredit the source, but in this case, you should be aware of some factors that as an American, you may not be aware of
1) The Australian is a Murdoch owned paper. Certainly not everything it prints is biased, it is generally quite OK - but it has had its moments
2) You are quoting an opinion piece by Christopher Pearson, a speech-writer for the Liberal Party with significant right-wing leanings
3) He is in the piece interviewing Jennifer Marohasy, a spokesman for The Institute of Public Affairs - a "think tank" which is essentially a wing of the Liberal Party.

These people are not climate scientists. This is not science reporting. This is political comment.

But, let's not dwell on that - let's look at the content:

She replied: "No, actually, there has been cooling, if you take 1998 as your point of reference. If you take 2002 as your point of reference, then temperatures have plateaued. This is certainly not what you'd expect if carbon dioxide is driving temperature because carbon dioxide levels have been increasing but temperatures have actually been coming down over the last 10 years.

....The head of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has actually acknowledged it. He talks about the apparent plateau in temperatures so far this century. So he recognises that in this century, over the past eight years, temperatures have plateaued ... "


Well, nothing new here is there - this is just more of the same thing eleanoraquitane was saying on p32 of this thread

As I wrote then:
The chief UN climatologist today predicted a small drop in global temperatures this year because of the cooling effect of the La Nina phase of the ENSO system.

And, while global temperatures have not risen since 1998, the decade from 1998 to 2007 was the warmest on record. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74C.


So, all that article is really is is a right-wing journalist speaking to a right-wing 'pundit' in a opinion piece in a right-wing newspaper, trying to put a skeptical spin on old news.
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  #386 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2008, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by bugalugs View Post
Like Eleanorofaquitane's asteroid scenario, the liklihood that something like that will impact upon us in the next 100 or so years is very, very low. The liklihood that AGW will impact upon human habitations in the next 100 or so years is much much higher.
How can you honestly say that? IIRC, we are only tracking like 4% of what is out there.
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  #387 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2008, 04:03 PM
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Following this thread, the first thing that I notice is that some people posting here don't understand how science works. Yes, peer review is necessary for a published paper to be taken seriously. Otherwise, anyone, such as the members of the Heartland institute, can publish BS which is not true using data that is incorrect. Articles by scientists, such as the list often provided by deniers, are opinions and opinions, without evidence or data to back them are in the realm of a political debate, not a scientific debate. A scientific debate, following the rules of science demands links and information from peer reviewed articles in accepted scientific journals. That's how science works. If you do not accept that, then you are engaging in a political debate. The scientific debate over AGW is over. The political one is not and will not be until the deniers understand how science, be it physics, chemistry biology etc, works.
CDP, Bugalugs has responded to each of your claims but you have chosen to ignore his responese because he called you a liar. I have never called you a liar, so show me these "thousands of papers that have been published". And please don't tell me to research them because I can't research what's not there. And your statement that
Quote:
FYI, a majority of the "scientists" that believe in "Global Warming" are not climatologists. They are political scientists.
is incorrect. Go the IPCC site and read the list of contributors. Count the climatologists and political scientists listed and you'll see how incorrect your statement is.
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  #388 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2008, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted by SuperDinoYoshi View Post



Well what information are you interested in seeing?

The basics of its pertinence is that
  • Because of the way Green House gases work, the less in a system, the more dramatic of an effect their addition will cause.
  • Before the Industrial Ages, little Co2 was released to the atmosphere by human activity, leaving the natural cycles which remove and add Co2 to the atmosphere to their own devices
  • During the Industrial Ages our contributions of Co2 to the atmosphere went from 0 to 60, so to speak.
  • Under the AGW theory, the globe should have warmed, unless there were any other forcings that could have masked the effects of our emissions.yes, according to the dat, the globe has warmed
  • During the Industrial Ages, the globe cooled, it didn't warm.Evience, please?
  • Most of the AGW faithful explain this cooling with aerosolssource?
  • While it is known that aerosols can cause a dimming effect, their effects don't explain the coolingwhat cooling
  • Aerosols are short lived in the atmosphere and have a local effect, meaning they would cool the surrounding areas of where they were releasedincorrect, aerosols can have a warming or cooling effect, depending on the aerosol. And the effect is not local.
  • The globe didn't cool like thatcorrect, it warmed
My responses in blue


Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperDinoYoshi View Post
The saying goes, 12 wrongs don't make a right. Why did Mann have to lie to make his first graph if the evidence actually exists? Why does one of the 12 new hockysticks cut off the most recent 50 (Maybe 30, I can't remember) years which show cooling or stagnant temperatures?
source, please for the new hockysticks. And you haven't addressed my response that other proxies have agreed with Mann's hockystick.
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  #389 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2008, 04:52 PM
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Originally Posted by eleanoraquitaine View Post
It just isn't so. CO2 levels have SOARED by 30% since the 1938 but temperature has not. Geological evidence also indicates a disconnect between CO2 levels and temperature.
But CO2 levels and temperature area not a direct relationship. There are other factors which affect temperature. What geological evidence?

Quote:
Originally Posted by eleanoraquitaine View Post
Sure, an example. Originally, the alarmists said it would take centuries to heal:
http://www.livescience.com/environme...zone_hole.html
Alarmists are not scientists.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eleanoraquitaine View Post
You might also find this interesting- sort of related: http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/200...runc_sys.shtml
Interesting article, but this states that and increase in OH radicals adds to smog, instead of destroying it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by eleanoraquitaine View Post
Catch-22. We can't accurately measure the chances of a major hit unless we spend the money to at least chart the near Earth objects. But, there are a lot of them and they have hit us many times in the past. its only a matter of time. All scientists pretty much agree about that. We have charted like 35% of the near Earth objects last I heard and I read something like one million dollars for three years could fund the charting of the rest.



Ahh, you are not understanding me at all. I wasn't excusing it. I was condemning it. Developing a post-consumerism based economy is a much more worthy project that trying to change the temperature. Given that America consumes so much of the resources and generates such a high percentage of waste, and much of it unnecessary, I believe it is the most important place to start. In any case, its my country so I would like to see us do things right.



Its the excessive population that is going to become increasingly unpleasant, especially given the demographics you mention- that it is the poorest and the most uneducated that tend to breed the most. The very worst thing we do is when we try to help the poor in these other countries by giving them food, medicine, etc. Its really counterproductive because they then just have more kids. Sad, but true.

What you are missing in the Somalia V America comparison is the fact that resources are not yet scarce in America. But, just as the price of oil is increasing because of increasing global demand so too will resources become more scarce as the population continues to boom. We are really already seeing the effects in numerous ways and it is decimating the middle class in the USA. Unfortunately, Somalia consumes less resources and has less impact on the environment by staying poor and pre-industrial.
And if nothing is done or can be done about AGW, then the problem of overpopulation may be solved.
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  #390 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2008, 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by eleanoraquitaine View Post
Geez, I am a scientist and pretty well informed about this issue. I posted some relevant, scientific facts, and no one has responded?

Very disappointing....This really should not be a political issue. Thats the problem with the discussion. Its not grounded in science but faith. The "global warmers"; are "believers."
You may have a science degree, but you, madam, are no scientist. Read the IPCC reports and then post again that AGW is not grounded in science.
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