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  #571 (permalink)  
Old 05-01-2008, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by TheChief View Post
He means 98% arn't on my side OR yours..
What kind of twisted logic is that? Come on, Chief. Your smart enough to know the problem with that assumption. Who is going to sign the petition? If I get a petition in the mail and I agree with it I'll sign it and send it. If I disagree, I'll throw it out. So if 1,000,000 petitions were mailed wouldn't you assume that the people who didn't respond did not agree with the petition?
The petition itself is confusing. Did the the people sign because they were against Kyoto or because they do not accept AGW?

But my whole point was that without knowing the methodology or total mailings, the number "19,000" is meaningless. If I show you a petition signed by 19,000 soldiers against the Iraq War will that change your mind and will you call for a troop withdrawal? If I show you a petition for keeping abortion legal signed by 19,000 doctors will you be pro-choice?
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  #572 (permalink)  
Old 05-01-2008, 06:29 PM
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Okay now. I have a lot of questions on this subject. So I will post them one at a time until they are all answered responsibly and accurately. I am no scientist. I am just a cop. That being said I am neither stupid or ignorant as to common sense. So rhetoric will not fly here.

First question.
According to the scientists that were just on the show "Expedition Alaska" one of the reasons and effects of global warming is the melting of sea ice in Alaska and around the world, and as such that warms the planet because the sea ice in Alaska reflects 70% of the sunlight back into the sky and thus raising surface temperature even more. Also as was referenced earlier in this thread the ice in the north and south is apparently thicker than it has been in the past.

How can this be true? For ice to reflect that much light 70% of the world would have to be covered in ice. As Alaska and the other areas that are covered in ice are minuscule in proportion to the non ice covered parts this effect would be almost unmeasurable.

If you are a skeptic and do not know, then just say that you do not know. Same goes for a proponent.

If you are just going to respond with insults then please shut your mouth. The idiocy is not needed here.
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  #573 (permalink)  
Old 05-01-2008, 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by MannieD View Post
But my whole point was that without knowing the methodology or total mailings, the number "19,000" is meaningless. If I show you a petition signed by 19,000 soldiers against the Iraq War will that change your mind and will you call for a troop withdrawal? If I show you a petition for keeping abortion legal signed by 19,000 doctors will you be pro-choice?
It seems pretty simple to me. If there are five thousand people that agree and 19000 that do not. The majority does not agree.

Also, if 19000 from around the world do not agree, then it kind of throws out your idea that there is only controversy in the United States.
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  #574 (permalink)  
Old 05-01-2008, 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted by TheChief View Post
Is Mikhail Danilin a scientist or not?



Oww but it is!



Ok he's valid.



Is he a scientist?



(*)(*)(*)(*) right he ain't

Out of the 6 names you've checked for me 1 was a scientist and 2 were you claimed were but gave no information about the person only the company they worked in. And one you didn't account for. Which makes you wonder were these people fit into the 'worlds top 2000 scientists' well by the IPCC's standard:



Interesting it would seem every tom, dick and harry can be a worlds top scientist by that definition!

Though this list was biased even the whole list can't be compared or used as a number ageeing with AGW because it isn't it's only a number which contributed not agreed. As you so kindly showed for me there are skeptics in the number which puts into serious doubt the idea that humans are very likely (90%) to be responsible for climate change. (I'd also doubt it simple because of the backlash it's recieved. It's like the scientific community almost choked when this went down..)



It is not 'UNNATURALLY' high it is perfectly normal for a warm spell. If anything it's a tad cooler!
Can you show me where the quote 'worlds top 2000 scientists' comes from? Is that who the IPCC claims are their contributors?
I've already shown you that the IPCC makes no claim about the contributors being scientists, only that they are "experts in all regions of the world and all relevant disciplines". So I will agree with you; not all the contributors are scientists.
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  #575 (permalink)  
Old 05-01-2008, 10:37 PM
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PARIS (AFP) - Global warming could take a break in the next decade thanks to a natural shift in ocean circulations, although Earth's temperature will rise as previously expected over the longer term, according to a study published on Thursday in the British journal Nature.

Climate scientists in Germany base the prediction on what they believe is an impending change in the Gulf Stream -- the conveyor belt that transports warm surface water from the tropical Atlantic to the northern Atlantic and returns cold water southwards at depth.

The Gulf Stream will temporarily weaken over the next decade, in line with what has happened regularly in the past, the researchers say.

This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures in the North Atlantic and in North America and Europe, and also help the temperatures in the tropical Pacific to remain stable, they suggest.

Last year, scientists in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that by 2100, global average surface temperatures could rise by between 1.1 C and 6.4 C (1.98 and 11.52 F) compared to 1980-99 levels.

In the next 20 years alone, the global climate would warm by around 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, the IPCC said.

These calculations are based on atmospheric concentrations of carbon gases -- the famous "greenhouse effect" in which solar heat is stored in the air rather than released into space.

The heat is eventually transferred to the sea and land, ultimately disrupting Earth's complex climate system.

Climate experts have long warned, though, that warming is unlikely to be a gradual trend, but a movement in stops and starts.

The main reason for this is that the oceans -- the biggest store of heat -- go through natural cycles of circulation.

The long churning of the seas can have a far-reaching effect, sometimes delaying for years the moment when the stored warmth is released at the surface.

The authors of the new study stress that they do not dispute the IPCC's figures.

"Just to make things clear, we are not stating that anthropogenic [man-made] climate change won't be as bad as previously thought," said Mojib Latif, a professor at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Kiel, northern Germany.

"What we are saying is that on top of the warming trend, there is a long-periodic oscillation that will probably lead to a lower temperature increase than we would expect from the current trend during the next years."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080430...rfa.4mLEKs0NUE
But....but....but...the co2 level continues to rise, I thought the earth had a fever?
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  #576 (permalink)  
Old 05-02-2008, 01:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rino View Post
Okay now. I have a lot of questions on this subject. So I will post them one at a time until they are all answered responsibly and accurately. I am no scientist. I am just a cop. That being said I am neither stupid or ignorant as to common sense. So rhetoric will not fly here.

First question.
According to the scientists that were just on the show "Expedition Alaska" one of the reasons and effects of global warming is the melting of sea ice in Alaska and around the world, and as such that warms the planet because the sea ice in Alaska reflects 70% of the sunlight back into the sky and thus raising surface temperature even more. Also as was referenced earlier in this thread the ice in the north and south is apparently thicker than it has been in the past.

How can this be true? For ice to reflect that much light 70% of the world would have to be covered in ice. As Alaska and the other areas that are covered in ice are minuscule in proportion to the non ice covered parts this effect would be almost unmeasurable.

If you are a skeptic and do not know, then just say that you do not know. Same goes for a proponent.

If you are just going to respond with insults then please shut your mouth. The idiocy is not needed here.
You are talking about albedo - the amount of sunlight a body reflects

Perhaps the show you watched didn't explain it clearly. I think they were trying to say that the sea ice in Alaska will reflect 70% of the light hitting the sea ice in Alaska - not the light hitting the whole world.

Generally - fresh, flat snow will reflect 90% of the light hitting it. Bare earth will reflect much less - perhaps less than 10%. The figure of 70% for sea ice sounds about right. The average albedo for the whole Earth is about 30% - ie 30% of light hitting the planet from the sun is reflected.

Reflected light is also reflected heat. If AGW causes surface temperatures to rise and ice/snow to melt, it is predicted that the loss of snow will reduce the earth's albedo, creating a feedback mechanism that thereby further increases warming. However - higher temperatures may also result in more water vapour and more clouds and hence an increased albedo - leading to some amount of cooling.

Which scenario is correct? I don't know - but it is one more factor in the complexities of global climate that suggest it is a good idea to try to limit the emissions that may impact on global climate.

Albedo is explained well here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo
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  #577 (permalink)  
Old 05-02-2008, 02:12 AM
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Originally Posted by hellvsheaven View Post
Global warming, it's not going to happen. Scientist are already saying the Ice Caps are 25% thicker than average, so you should be worried about Global Cooling.
Who are these scientists saying the Ice Caps are 25% thicker than average? What is "average"?
Quote:
Originally Posted by hellvsheaven View Post
And besides, The earth changes all the time, what cause the first Global Warming way back then when there wasn't any humans to supposedly "Cause" it?
Generally, the Milankovitch Cycle
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Originally Posted by hellvsheaven View Post
We didn't do anything to cause the Ice Caps to melt, or Freeze. It's part of the cycle of the Earth, nothing scientific to know that. If your so worried about Global Warming occuring, then be my guest and move to a different planet.
Thanks for your contribution
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Old 05-02-2008, 02:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Professor Peabody View Post
But....but....but...the co2 level continues to rise, I thought the earth had a fever?
Terrestrial climate is greatly influenced by ocean currents.
Ocean currents are driven by ocean temperature gradients.
If ocean surface temperatures change, this may impact on ocean temperature gradients, and hence ocean currents.
Areas generally warmed by warm currents, may become cooler if rising ocean temperatures reduce the velocity of these warm currents.

What is it about that don't you understand?
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  #579 (permalink)  
Old 05-02-2008, 03:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Rino View Post
It seems pretty simple to me. If there are five thousand people that agree and 19000 that do not. The majority does not agree.

Also, if 19000 from around the world do not agree, then it kind of throws out your idea that there is only controversy in the United States.
But that's the point Rino. Robinson won't release the total number of mailings so all we have to go on is what appears to be a large number and we don't know if there is a majority. I've tried to get a very rough estimate of the number of mailings and I don't see how 19,000 could be a majority.
Here is the petition:
Quote:
We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.
There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.
Did the signers sign because they were against Kyoto or disagreed with AGW?

And to add to bugalugs' post: Total area of the arctic sea ice is about equal to the continental US. Add Greenland ice, northern Canada and Siberian ice and you have the whole "top of the world". So the effects of a change in albedo is in no way minuscule.
I didn't see "Expedition Alaska" so I let me know if this addresses your question.
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  #580 (permalink)  
Old 05-02-2008, 03:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bugalugs View Post
You are talking about albedo - the amount of sunlight a body reflects

Perhaps the show you watched didn't explain it clearly. I think they were trying to say that the sea ice in Alaska will reflect 70% of the light hitting the sea ice in Alaska - not the light hitting the whole world.
Maybe they were mistaken because they said the world.


Quote:
Reflected light is also reflected heat. If AGW causes surface temperatures to rise and ice/snow to melt, it is predicted that the loss of snow will reduce the earth's albedo, creating a feedback mechanism that thereby further increases warming. However - higher temperatures may also result in more water vapour and more clouds and hence an increased albedo - leading to some amount of cooling.

Which scenario is correct? I don't know - but it is one more factor in the complexities of global climate that suggest it is a good idea to try to limit the emissions that may impact on global climate.
Ok good enough. I guess the global warming scientists were just wrong on the show.

Maybe you answered it already but I have not seen it.

Earlier in the thread a poster explained that humans provide something like 2% of the CO2 the rest is natural, and if you factor in water vapor we provide something like .02%.

How can such a small amount honestly be expected tip the scales to disaster?
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