Political Forum
     

Go Back   Political Forum > Political Issues > Environment & Conservation


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #71 (permalink)  
Old 03-22-2007, 05:13 AM
MannieD's Avatar
MannieD MannieD is offline
Sr. Correspondent
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: New England
Age: 57
Posts: 817
usa us new hampshire
MannieD is on a distinguished road
Credits: 4,169
Default not the sun

Quote:
Originally Posted by barney-fife";p=&quot View Post
I'll go you one better--how about a link on the polar ice caps on Mars melting? Of course, this is no doubt caused by human activity on earth.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2..._southpole.htm
http://www.capmag.com/news.asp?ID=1465

And, of course, human activity on earth is also evidently responsible for global warming taking place on Pluto.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronom...ng_021009.html

Not to be outdone, Venus is also warming.

http://www.channel4.com/science/micr...s/planets.html

I had no idea driving SUV's on planet earth had such far-reaching consequences!

Oh, I heard the seas are going to rise. Ever seen maps of what the world looked like a hundred or so million years ago? Here, I'll show you: http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/historical.html Imagine that! The oceans covered huge expanses of land, all without the aid or contribution of any human activity!

Global warming alarmists are the most vain people in all of human history.
Unfortunately for you, the scientists in your article are not attributing the Mars or Pluto climate change to the sun. Here's more rope: Jupiter is experiencing climate change and Triton is experiencing global warming. But like Mars and Pluto, no planetary scientists are attributing it to the sun.

From your articles
Quote:
Like Earth, Mars has seasons that cause its polar caps to wax and wane. "It's late spring at the south pole of Mars," says planetary scientist Dave Smith of the Goddard Space Flight Center. "The polar cap is receding because the springtime sun is shining on it."
Quote:
Pluto's atmospheric pressure has tripled over the past 14 years, indicating a stark temperature rise, the researchers said. The change is likely a seasonal event, much as seasons on Earth change as the hemispheres alter their inclination to the Sun during the planet's annual orbit.
Quote:
The thick dense carbon dioxide atmosphere on Venus has led to a 'run away' greenhouse effect, with surface temperatures soaring to around 460°C, hot enough to melt lead, and three times greater than otherwise expected.
Venus has been hot for a long time. No recent temperature increase is mentioned.
__________________
Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit.

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Red Cross - Donate Today    Save the Rainforest
  #72 (permalink)  
Old 03-22-2007, 05:42 AM
MannieD's Avatar
MannieD MannieD is offline
Sr. Correspondent
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: New England
Age: 57
Posts: 817
usa us new hampshire
MannieD is on a distinguished road
Credits: 4,169
Default Limpaugh misinformation

Quote:
BTW, when ice melts, the water level remains the same. This means that both poles could totally melt, and the level of the oceans would not rise one inch. Try this little experiment. Fill a glass up with ice and water, and mark the water level on the glass. Wait until all the ice has melted and again mark the water level on the glass. It will not have changed. Yet, the global warming alarmists are warning against rising sea levels due to the poles melting. Amazing.


Quote:
It's basic physics. I even had the question on what happens to the level of water when ice melts in a very elementary physics class I took in college. It stays the same. It doesn't matter if it's ice in a glass or ice in the ocean--when it melts, the water level remains the same, because it displaces the water it once sat in.
But as Raytri already mentioned, the ice that is melting is on land (Antarctica is a continent) and the water is running into the ocean. The ice in the south is not in the water, so your analogy is invalid. In the north, the Arctic Ocean is melting and that will not have a major effect on ocean levels.
__________________
Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit.

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Reply With Quote
  #73 (permalink)  
Old 03-22-2007, 05:53 AM
MannieD's Avatar
MannieD MannieD is offline
Sr. Correspondent
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: New England
Age: 57
Posts: 817
usa us new hampshire
MannieD is on a distinguished road
Credits: 4,169
Default .

Quote:
Originally Posted by Truth-Defender";p=&quot View Post
But hurricanes are not caused by warm air. They are caused by the influx of cold air.
Then why don't we see hurricanes forming in the north and south Atlantic, where there is plenty of cold air?
__________________
Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit.

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Reply With Quote
  #74 (permalink)  
Old 03-22-2007, 06:13 AM
raytri's Avatar
raytri raytri is online now
Site Moderator
Guru
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Minnesota
Age: 41
Posts: 17,501
usa us minnesota
raytri has a reputation beyond reputeraytri has a reputation beyond reputeraytri has a reputation beyond reputeraytri has a reputation beyond reputeraytri has a reputation beyond reputeraytri has a reputation beyond reputeraytri has a reputation beyond reputeraytri has a reputation beyond reputeraytri has a reputation beyond reputeraytri has a reputation beyond reputeraytri has a reputation beyond repute
Credits: 110,059
Default dgdgdg

Well for one thing, T-D is (deliberately?) confusing warm *air* with warm *seawater*.
__________________
Man up.
Reply With Quote
  #75 (permalink)  
Old 03-22-2007, 06:39 AM
barney-fife's Avatar
barney-fife barney-fife is offline
Guru
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 7,997
barney-fife is an unknown quantity at this point
Credits: 44,699
Default I'll concede

I'll concede (because I am such an honest and gracious person) that ice located on land that melts and runs into the ocean will raise ocean levels. So? So what's the big deal about? You think this is the only time in all of history the ocean level has changed? Are you really this vain? I once again call your attention to maps of the world from 100 million years ago, showing the oceans covering much of what we today call continents.

Speaking of ice, oceans and water, has it ever occurred to anyone (other than me) that the totality of all the water from eternity past to eternity future has never changed? In other words, the total volume of water, whether the water is in the oceans, rivers, lakes, underground, frozen, or in the air, has remained absolutely constant and the same, world without end. The only thing that has changed is the location and nature of the water. I find that very interesting. This is a fact of nature evolution cannot come close to explaining. The total and unchangeable sum of all water could not have begun with a single drop, because if it did, the process that caused that first drop to form would still be in effect and continuing, resulting in an ever expanding volume of water being created, and eventually displacing and covering all the earth. Yet, the fact is the total volume of water on earth is incapable of ever changing (unless for the small amounts astronauts leave in outer space).
__________________
"Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."
Winston Churchill
Reply With Quote
  #76 (permalink)  
Old 03-22-2007, 06:54 AM
cjdrover
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Predicting Climate Change

As you consider global warming, do yourself a favor and watch the Weather Channel (there is a point to this, just keep reading). Try to catch a ten-day forecast. Write down exactly what the prediction is. Ten days from now, see what the weather is. As I'm sure you are already aware, weather and climate prediction are far from an exact science.
Our problem is that we deal with a mixture of repeating conditions and non-repeating conditions. Repeating conditions are things like the eleven-year solar cycle, the Earth's magnetic cycle (the magnetic poles shift back and forth, north to south and vice versa, over time), etc. Non-repeating conditions include meteorite impacts, the aging of the sun (aging does not necessarily mean cooling, mind you; nuclear fusion is a terribly complex process), and mankind's impact.
My opinion is this: the Earth, like most things in nature, is remarkably good at maintaining its present state. The Earth's climate is in a state of equilibrium - this is a "resting" state, or the point of where energy is distributed in the most entropically favorable situation (sorry for the thermodynamics terms). In other words, think of a bowl with a marble in it. The marble will always gravitate towards the bottom of the bowl because that is the most energetically favorable state for it to be in. How do we know this? We know that when the Earth is thrown temporarily out of this resting state, it returns to it. Examples: Ice Age, major meteorite impacts, even major volcanic events. What we need to be careful of is not to shake the Earth so hard that it falls into a different resting state - in the bowl example, knocking the marble out of the bowl. We don't know if there is another even more stable climate state. Odds are, there isn't. But considering that all of our lives are on the line, I don't think that's a chance we should take.
This has gotten far longer than I intended, so I'll wrap it up. Humans have most definitely impacted the environment, but we are certainly not the most serious impact in Earth's history (the meteorite strike 65 million years ago released an amount of energy roughly equal to one million times the largest hydrogen bomb ever detonated (an estimate, of course)). We need to do something, but I highly doubt that we are on a doomsday course that will end humanity.
Reply With Quote
  #77 (permalink)  
Old 03-22-2007, 07:44 AM
Truth-Defender Truth-Defender is offline
Sr. Correspondent
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 446
Truth-Defender is on a distinguished road
Credits: 3,931
Default Be Considerate

Quote:
Originally Posted by cjdrover";p=&quot View Post
As you consider global warming, do yourself a favor and watch the Weather Channel (there is a point to this, just keep reading). Try to catch a ten-day forecast. Write down exactly what the prediction is. Ten days from now, see what the weather is. As I'm sure you are already aware, weather and climate prediction are far from an exact science.
Don't be bringing truth and common sense into this, cjdrover.......there are Liberals present . Truth and logic offend Liberals who prefer gullibility and knee-jerk emotionalism.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MannieD";p=&quot View Post
Then why don't we see hurricanes forming in the north and south Atlantic, where there is plenty of cold air?
Quote:
Originally Posted by raytri";p=&quot View Post
Well for one thing, T-D is (deliberately?) confusing warm *air* with warm *seawater*.
No, warm fuzzies, you are the one's confused. Hurricanes occur when cold air meets warm waters. That happens closer to the equator than in the north for obvious reasons........that pesky ol' sun, ya know ? Well, maybe that's no so obvious to Liberals. Cold air doesn't fit very well with Pope Gore's apistle any more than record ice and snow storms this winter have.

I didn't get to hear all of the Algore show yesterday. Did he explain how variations in solar radiation doesn't affect our temperature? Did he explain why we're not supposed to pay attention to Mars' melting ice caps? Did he explain why the Earth's history of climate cycles prior to human existence needed to be factored out of his sci-fi movie? Being a good, honest Liberal his dupes think he is, I'm sure he meant to. Did they give him enough time? With only 4 hours available, I can see where those details mind just slip his mind .
Reply With Quote
  #78 (permalink)  
Old 03-22-2007, 07:57 AM
gmb92 gmb92 is offline
Commentator
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,560
gmb92 is a splendid one to beholdgmb92 is a splendid one to beholdgmb92 is a splendid one to beholdgmb92 is a splendid one to beholdgmb92 is a splendid one to beholdgmb92 is a splendid one to behold
Credits: 12,659
Default .

Quote:
Consensus scientists preached that the sun and stars revolved around the Earth. Consensus scientists preached that the world was flat. Consensus scientists declared in the 70's that a new ice age was starting.
No. There was no such scientific consensus or confidence in climatology during the 70's. For instance, the National Academy of Sciences reported:

Quote:
The 1975 NAS report titled "Understanding Climate Change: A Program for Action" did not make predictions, stating in fact that "we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course. Without the fundamental understanding, it does not seem possible to predict climate."
Quote:
The climates of the earth have always been changing, and they will doubtless continue to do so in the future. How large these future changes will be, and where and how rapidly they will occur, we do not know.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_...ciences_report

Quote:
Consensus scientists declared 2006 would be a worse hurricane year than 2005.
Worse than 2005? An above normal season was predicted, with a confidence level of 80%, revised down to 75%. Thus, we fell into the other 20-25% of that prediction. Year to year events are more difficult to predict than the overall climate trend.

Quote:
And now, the consensus scientists are so scared of being called names by the non-scientist Leftist Loons and their non-scientist media, that they cast aside their common sense in ignoring all climate changes in Earth's history prior to human existence, as well as climate changes on planets never hosting human life.
You do have quite a contempt for science, except such rhetoric can be reversed. Yesterday's flat-Earthers are todays global warming skeptics. It wasn't long ago that there was a significant following in the Flat Earth Society. Some haven't caught up yet.

Quote:
Why can't you devotees the Algore religion answer the obvious questions? It's only because common sense and factual occurrances don't fit in the data for the pre-determined conslusion you desired, and for your current excuse for demanding humanity give up our freedom and wealth to the elitist manipulators.
It's all a vast leftwing conspiracy...

Quote:
Algore himself is so concerned that genuine scientists are beginning to say "the king has no new clothes on," that he simply dictated his declaration that "the debate on global warming is over."
Which genuine scientists? There are so few of them that challenge anthrogenic causation to begin with. That's why it's called "scientific consensus". That term wasn't being used until the overwhelming majority of scientists agreed. Al Gore didn't invent it despite your faith in him.
__________________
See, free nations are peaceful nations. Free nations don't attack each other. Free nations don't develop weapons of mass destruction.

- G.W. Bush, 10/3/2003
Reply With Quote
  #79 (permalink)  
Old 03-22-2007, 08:12 AM
gmb92 gmb92 is offline
Commentator
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,560
gmb92 is a splendid one to beholdgmb92 is a splendid one to beholdgmb92 is a splendid one to beholdgmb92 is a splendid one to beholdgmb92 is a splendid one to beholdgmb92 is a splendid one to behold
Credits: 12,659
Default .

Quote:
Originally Posted by cjdrover";p=&quot View Post
As you consider global warming, do yourself a favor and watch the Weather Channel (there is a point to this, just keep reading). Try to catch a ten-day forecast. Write down exactly what the prediction is. Ten days from now, see what the weather is. As I'm sure you are already aware, weather and climate prediction are far from an exact science.
Our problem is that we deal with a mixture of repeating conditions and non-repeating conditions. Repeating conditions are things like the eleven-year solar cycle, the Earth's magnetic cycle (the magnetic poles shift back and forth, north to south and vice versa, over time), etc. Non-repeating conditions include meteorite impacts, the aging of the sun (aging does not necessarily mean cooling, mind you; nuclear fusion is a terribly complex process), and mankind's impact.
My opinion is this: the Earth, like most things in nature, is remarkably good at maintaining its present state. The Earth's climate is in a state of equilibrium - this is a "resting" state, or the point of where energy is distributed in the most entropically favorable situation (sorry for the thermodynamics terms). In other words, think of a bowl with a marble in it. The marble will always gravitate towards the bottom of the bowl because that is the most energetically favorable state for it to be in. How do we know this? We know that when the Earth is thrown temporarily out of this resting state, it returns to it. Examples: Ice Age, major meteorite impacts, even major volcanic events. What we need to be careful of is not to shake the Earth so hard that it falls into a different resting state - in the bowl example, knocking the marble out of the bowl. We don't know if there is another even more stable climate state. Odds are, there isn't. But considering that all of our lives are on the line, I don't think that's a chance we should take.
This has gotten far longer than I intended, so I'll wrap it up. Humans have most definitely impacted the environment, but we are certainly not the most serious impact in Earth's history (the meteorite strike 65 million years ago released an amount of energy roughly equal to one million times the largest hydrogen bomb ever detonated (an estimate, of course)). We need to do something, but I highly doubt that we are on a doomsday course that will end humanity.
Individual weather events are generally more difficult to predict than an overall long-term climate trend. For instance, we can have a high confidence that the Dallas Mavericks will win a 1st round 7-game series but a lower confidence that they will win an individual game. Similarly, we have little or no confidence in whether or not it will rain on a single day 1 month from now, but perhaps a somewhat higher confidence in whether or not this will be a rainier than usual summer. We might have some degree of confidence in how high the snowpack will be in the Rockies next year but perhaps a much greater degree of confidence in the long-term trend.

Meteor impacts can cause extinction. A rock 10 miles in diameter (a tiny fraction of the Earth's volume) can cause such an event. The balance of life on Earth is a very delicate one. While global warming does not have the immediate impact of a large meteor, there's always the danger of a tipping point as a worst-case scenario. It's probably not too likely, but why push the envelope?
__________________
See, free nations are peaceful nations. Free nations don't attack each other. Free nations don't develop weapons of mass destruction.

- G.W. Bush, 10/3/2003
Reply With Quote
  #80 (permalink)  
Old 03-22-2007, 11:09 AM
ashleykennedy's Avatar
ashleykennedy ashleykennedy is offline
Banned
Analyst
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Stoke-on-Trent
Posts: 2,287
uk european union
ashleykennedy is an unknown quantity at this point
Credits: 23,908
Default Named storms and a bit

Alberto, Helene, Beryl, Isaac, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon and one that got away before it got named.

But then there are also Typhoons:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pa...Typhoon_Season

and of course pacific hurricanes

The cumulative ACE for the Eastern Pacific this season fell within the official "Near Normal" grading, even though the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes was above the long term average.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pa...rricane_season

For background information on averages

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...formation.html
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are Off
Forum Jump

Sponsored Links

All times are GMT -8. The time now is 12:18 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2008, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0
Template-Modifikationen durch TMS
vBCredits v1.3 ©2007 by Darkwaltz4
Advertisement System V2.1 By   Branden