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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 03-18-2007, 10:17 PM
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Lovely.. the people polled say say no civilwar and things are great. That means the US military can leave now.


---

Heres another thread about civilwar in Iraq. Mods thought it wasn't current events so they moved it elsewhere..
http://politicalforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=26451&start=0
Quote:
SECURITY in Iraq is "moving in a negative direction" and that the term "civil war" aptly describes elements of the conflict there, US intelligence chief Michael McConnell said overnight.

"Unless efforts to reverse these conditions gain real traction during the 12-18 month time frame ... we assess that the security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter half of 2006," Mr McConnell told the US Senate Armed Services Committee.

The director of national intelligence also said "the term 'civil war' accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict" including the hardening of sectarian divisions and population "displacements".
for St. Paddy's day
are you calling the people that disagree with you less irish, or did you guys do some probing over the weekend
just nutty check your....I mean DuH2's remark. Just goofy
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 03-18-2007, 11:57 PM
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yeah, this is clearly one of those "there is no civil war" things...
First off, use the statistics, two to one is a killer way to say 66% prefer the current government... actually it's 49%...
and how are they spli? Sunni's thought, 51% at least, that Saddam was better, while 66% of Shia's thought Maliki is better... they are divided pretty nicely...
Civil War? poll divided between party lines, 41% of Sunni's believe they are in one, and if you have that big a party believing that and hence pursuing aims consistent with ones pursued in an actual civil war, well that's a big problem in itself... and 27% is not a small number - one in four people is enough to get into some problems...
anyway, that number may be artificially low because civil war requires a fight within a country, brother against brother etc., and this isn't exactly guaranteed when the Shia's and Sunni's have disliked each other for so many centuries - they may just not interact that much, and hence not consider their respective enemies country men... and by the way, 49% thought iraq is close, which is actually what most people have been saying.

and if you consider this article something to boast about, consider that 26% of the people poled have had a family member killed in the last three years, (which is remarkably close to the civil war numbers...) there have been over 3000 american deaths, and it doesn't seem like the government currently in place would last on its own for very long. the democratization policy of Bush is at least commendable, but in all honestly, war is the wrong way to go about it.

the only real hope here is that more Sunni oil fields will be discovered soon, and so their complaint about oil revenues dies down. This will solve more problems than 100,000 extra american troops, and will have little to do with them anyway.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 03-19-2007, 12:54 AM
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26% have had a family member killled...and yet they haven't given up.

3,000+ american dead is an absurdly low number.

The government can last with support..not simply hot air.....its getting better at fulfilling its role. Iraqis are more and more taking the lead in finding and removing Terrorists types in their nation. Given time it will be able to handle the vast majority of needs.

Democratization via war works fine..unless those implementing the Democracy do not have the willpower to last a rational amount of time..the "microwave generation" has problems with giving things time.


Quote:
the only real hope here is that more Sunni oil fields will be discovered soon, and so their complaint about oil revenues dies down.
Has already occured.




Quote:
This will solve more problems than 100,000 extra american troops, and will have little to do with them anyway.
Not in the short term.








The crying and whining and OMG we can't nonsense about Iraq is doing absolutely nothing but proving Osama core message correct.

Kick them.. bleed them.. wait them out... they will break and run.



OH and I do deny there is a Civil War occuring mainly becasue the entire CIVL WAR routine started 2 years ago and it was and remains the drumbeat of the crowd who wants to lose. Its an excuse...a cover story if you will.
That Iraqis don't agree with them either discredits it even further.





..and as Ted aptly displayed those most eager to call it a Civil War simply cannot and will not say what their motivation for doing so is. They skip around either dodge or say well a ducks a duck..but eveyrone knows (*)(*)(*)(*) well that not their reason.


Isn't Afghanistan a Civil War as well by ths criteria(whatever the crietria happens to be at any given moment)..why yes it is..note that becasue thats the next "unwinnable" once they figure out a way to say 9/11 no longer matters.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 03-19-2007, 07:45 AM
WeShallNotBeSilent WeShallNotBeSilent is offline
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Default yes, then the Pentagon is also wrong...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tedminator";p=&quot View Post
Stayduhcourse.
In its latest "Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq" report to Congress, the Pentagon first uses the words "civil war."
The words are on page 14 of the 47-page document, where the Pentagon writes, "Some elements of the situation in Iraq are properly descriptive of a 'civil war.'

treason, nothing short of treason.
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Old 03-19-2007, 09:09 AM
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Stayduhcourse.
In its latest "Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq" report to Congress, the Pentagon first uses the words "civil war."
The words are on page 14 of the 47-page document, where the Pentagon writes, "Some elements of the situation in Iraq are properly descriptive of a 'civil war.'

treason, nothing short of treason.
The Pentagon, Director of National Intelligence and US intelligence chief calling it a civilwar doesn't matter. For some reason Duh2 thinks it's more important that I call it a civilwar.


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Old 03-19-2007, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by DuH2";p=&quot View Post
Quote:
Despite sectarian slaughter, ethnic cleansing and homicide bombs, an opinion poll conducted on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq has found a striking resilience and optimism among the inhabitants.

The poll, the biggest since coalition troops entered Iraq on March 20, 2003, shows that by a majority of two to one, Iraqis prefer the current leadership to Saddam Hussein 's regime, regardless of the security crisis and a lack of public services.

The survey, published today, also reveals that contrary to the views of many western analysts, most Iraqis do not believe they are embroiled in a civil war .
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle1530526.ece


Quote:
PUBLIC ATTITUDES IN IRAQ - FOUR YEARS ON
MARCH 2007
http://www.opinion.co.uk/Documents/FINALTables.pdf

So much for that..guess the "civil war" crowd needs to do more to convice the people there that they are in a "civil war" becasue apparently they just wont accept the "truth(tm)"
Oh yeah that it would be so much better had we never done anything.....they don't buy that either.
Actually, 49% prefer the current government over Saddam. 47% either preferred the previous regime, said they were both equally as bad, or didn't know. Of course the millions who have either died or fled the country were not factored into this poll. With the billions pumped into their economy and Iraqis supposedly "liberated" from Satan himself, shouldn't these numbers surprise you?

Regarding the "civil war opinion", 49% of Iraqis said Iraq was either in a civil war or close to it while 39% said they were not or far away from it. From other polls, the vast majority of Iraqis either blame the U.S. primarily for the violence or for making the violence significantly worse. So it's no surprise that they'd be less likely to call it a civil war. Perhaps you agree with them.

Nice spin, Duh, as usual.
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Old 03-19-2007, 11:06 AM
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Q2. And thinking ahead, do you believe that the security situation in Iraq will get better or worse in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of Multi National Forces?

Great deal better: 29%
A little better: 24%
Same: 6%
A little worse: 15%
A great deal worse: 11%
Don't know/refused: 12%

Total better: 53%
Total worse: 26%
Same: 6%

Optimism in Iraq does prevail.
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 03-19-2007, 01:48 PM
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..and as Ted aptly displayed those most eager to call it a Civil War simply cannot and will not say what their motivation for doing so is. They skip around either dodge or say well a ducks a duck..but eveyrone knows (*)(*)(*)(*) well that not their reason.
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 03-19-2007, 05:00 PM
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Default no "motivation" in calling the civil war in Iraq a civil war

There is no "motivation" in calling the civil war in Iraq a civil war. The reason that I refer to it as such is very simple, it is.

Quote:
A civil war is a war in which parties within the same culture, society or nationality fight against each other for the control of political power. Political scientists use two criteria: the warring groups must be from the same country and fighting for control of the political center, control over a separatist state or to force a major change in policy. The second criterion is that at least 1,000 people must have been killed in total, with at least 100 from each side.[1]

Some civil wars are categorized as revolutions when major societal restructuring is a possible outcome of the conflict. An insurgency, whether successful or not, is likely to be classified as a civil war by some historians if, and only if, organized armies fight conventional battles. Other historians state the criterion for a civil war is that there must be prolonged violence between organized factions or defined regions of a country (conventionally fought or not).
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 03-19-2007, 05:18 PM
WeShallNotBeSilent WeShallNotBeSilent is offline
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Default what could be the Pentagon's reasoning?

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Originally Posted by DuH2";p=&quot View Post
..and as Ted aptly displayed those most eager to call it a Civil War simply cannot and will not say what their motivation for doing so is. They skip around either dodge or say well a ducks a duck..but eveyrone knows (*)(*)(*)(*) well that not their reason.
what was the Pentagon's motivation?
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