Thread: Evaluation Syria Situation

Today marks 35 years since the Six-Day War between Israel and multiple Arab belligerents. Following Israel’s victory, the “Purple Line” was established on the Golan Heights providing Israel with a Defensible Border. Aimed at resolving the Arab-Israeli Conflict, President Obama suggested a return to the 1967 borders in 2011. From the Israeli perspective, this framework is unsatisfactory. Possession of the High Ground was critical in thwarting the Syrian offensive in October 1973 and the strategic importance of the Golan Heights cannot be understated.

The Assad regime faces international scrutiny for the crackdown on protests. Syria has deteriorated in the geopolitics of the Middle East, further emphasizing the necessity for economic development and modernization. The United States must consider the stability of neighboring nations Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Israel. Any spillover effect could be devastating to the region.

Assad has made efforts to approach the West, but maintains strong ties with Iran and Russia. The latter most tangible due to Russia’s soviet-Era Naval Base in Tartus, the main conduit for the projection of Naval power in the region. Iran is attempting to establish itself as the foremost power, countering neighboring Turkey in the process. Iran, though Western evaluators fail to reach this conclusion, is moving towards becoming a Developed Economy.

Both Iran and Syria have consistently avoided retreating to the demands of the Western Powers. While a possible conflict with Iran looms in the future, the Syrian situation is direr in the near term. Iran’s influence in Syria undermines U.S. and Ally control. Expansion of Iranian influence is a major concern, which the Obama administration has addressed with sanctions and containment policies. With the unrest occurring primarily in the urban areas, conventional offensive action with Air Supremacy would be difficult in Syria.

Evaluation:

Use of force in Syria could lead to a devastating outcome. Offensive action will mobilize Iran to offer complete support to Syrian opposition. It would force the United States to operate on multiple fronts for a prolonged period. If something occurs, Israel will be the proxy to justify action. Russia’s support for Syria and China’s ambiguity on the issue are concerns. While some would argue Obama’s inaction is a sign of weakness, it is a strength. By respecting the confines of International Law, the morally bankrupt foreign policy apparatus of the Russian’s is being exposed.

Syria is a secular country. For the most part, Muslims and Christians have lived in harmony.

If Assad were deposed and replaced with a leader who follows orthodox Islamic norms, what do you suppose will become of those outside the Muslim faith? Islam is not just a religion. It is a complete system, which includes its own form of government.

Syrian Christians are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Western interference would only make a bad situation worse, as we have a history of supporting brutal dictators who continue to commit human rights atrocities in exchange for our self-interests. Please note the fine example of Saudi Arabia.

Syrian Christians fear Islamist rule if Assad goes

Muslim World News
By IANS/RIA Novosti

Damascus : Christians living in conflict-torn Syria are afraid their community would fall victim of religious extremism if President Bashar al-Assad's regime collapses and Islamists come to power.

"I am afraid that we will suffer bad times," a member of Damascus's Christian community, who identified himself as Jorge, told Russia's RIA Novosti news agency.

A full-fledged civil war will break out in Syria if Assad's enemies and their western supporters continue efforts to topple the president, he said.

"If the regime falls, Islamists will come to power," Jorge said.

Islamists "wrongly believe that we support the current regime", and for that reason they will complicate the life of Christians, he said.

"Sunni Muslims who predominate Syria think that if President Assad's regime representing the interests of the Alawi minority falls, they will live better. But I personally think that they are wrong. Syria is a secular state and its people, including Muslims, will not like it if the new power starts thrusting orthodox Islamic norms of moral and behaviour on them," he said.

According to Jorge, extremist forces rather than liberals would come to power in Syria.

Another Syrian, an engineer from Homs, said on condition of anonymity that he is sure that if Assad's regime falls, Christians will be "expelled from the country in one day".

Presently, the situation in Homs is quite complicated. Almost all of the local Christians have moved away. Their homes have been occupied by militants and their families, and the shops have been looted. Refugees are temporarily living in other regions of the country.

Jorge said Islamists are trying to show that if the regime changes, Christians would not come under attack.

"They do it to appease them (the Christians), attract them thus losing their support of the regime," he said.

Muslim leaders put messages on social networks saying that Christians and Muslims have for centuries lived together in Syria. They have also tried to distance themselves from the damage that has been inflicted on Christian homes and churches in Homs.

The engineer from Homs said that government forces could have "pushed out" Islamist militants from Homs if they continued shelling the city for at least three more days.

"But then they adopted (UN and League of Arab States ambassador) Kofi Annan's plan and gunfire was terminated. But this does not bring anything good to us. Our homes remain occupied by militants," he said.

He said the majority Christians do not consider emigration a possibility. "This is our homeland. Christians have been living in Syria long before the Muslims. Why should we move away?"

Christians make up about 10 percent of Syria's 23-million population. Approximately half of Syria's Christians belong to the Antiochian Orthodox Church.

http://twocircles.net/2012may15/syri...ssad_goes.html

Yet another massacre by Assad's henchmen...

78 Killed In Newest Syria Massacre
June 06, 2012
Syrian activists say pro-government militia and security forces have killed at least 78 people, including women and children, in the central province of Hama. They say some of those killed in the villages of al-Kubeir and Maazarif Wednesday were stabbed to death and at least 12 bodies were burned.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said militiamen armed with guns and knives carried out the attack after regular troops had shelled the area. The Observatory described a similar pattern of events as recounted from the May 25 Houla massacre in which 108 Syrian civilians were murdered, nearly half of them children. That incident has provoked international outrage.

Activists called for an immediate investigation. There was no comment from the Syrian government, and events on the ground are difficult to verify as Syria tightly restricts access to international media. Meanwhile, senior U.S. officials are warning Syria and its backers that tougher international action against President Bashar al-Assad's government could follow unless Damascus demonstrates "meaningful compliance" with U.N efforts to end the violence.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday the administration and its allies could soon tighten sanctions against the Syrian government and its leaders. He spoke to representatives from 55 countries gathered in Washington to discuss increasing pressure on Assad and his top officials. "Strong sanctions, effectively implemented, aggressively enforced, can help deprive the Syrian regime of the resources it needs to sustain itself and to continue its repression of the Syrian people. Strong sanctions make clear to the Syrian business community and other supporters of the regime, their future is bleak so long as the Assad regime remains in power," he said.

Geithner said the U.S. would ask, if necessary, to invoke "Chapter 7" of the United Nations charter - a measure that could authorize the use of force. "We, the United States, hope that all responsible nations will soon join in taking appropriate economic actions against the Syrian regime, including, if necessary, Chapter 7 action in the U.N. Security Council as called for by the Arab League last weekend," he said.

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Originally Posted by waltky

Yet another massacre by Assad's henchmen...

78 Killed In Newest Syria Massacre
June 06, 2012
Syrian activists say pro-government militia and security forces have killed at least 78 people, including women and children, in the central province of Hama. They say some of those killed in the villages of al-Kubeir and Maazarif Wednesday were stabbed to death and at least 12 bodies were burned.

It is my understanding that the US can not invoke Chapter 7 without Russian approval.

The bull-(*)(*)(*)(*)e coming out of the media on Syria is very thick and has been since the beginning of the crisis.

In not sure what the actual issue over Syria is but I can tell you that it has little to do with violence and human rights abuses.