Mahdi Army Fades Away

superdude17* · #1 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 05:29 PM

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq.../20080428.aspx

Quote:

April 28 , 2008: After a month of fighting, the Mahdi Army has disappeared from the streets of Basra, the largest city in the south. The army and police are everywhere, and people are providing information on where Mahdi Army personnel are hiding out, and the locations of their weapons caches. Up north, in the Sadr City section of east Baghdad, the Mahdi Army is still fighting hard. But the army and police have the upper hand, and are pushing the Shia militiamen back block by block. Mahdi Army leader Muqtada al Sadr has responded by threatening to order his men to go after American troops if the government does not back off. That's won't work, because the Mahdi Army is not particularly skillful, and not very united either. He recently ordered his troops to stop fighting Iraqi soldiers and police, and concentrate on the Americans. The Iraqi security forces have not reciprocated, and continue coming after the Mahdi Army.

The dozen or so factions of the Mahdi Army vary in their loyalty to Sadr, or to political solutions. Several of the Mahdi Army factions are basically criminal gangs masquerading as religious zealots. Sadr denies he is a pawn of Iran, but as Mahdi Army houses are captured, more Iranian weapons and equipment show up, as well as religious propaganda from Iran. Iraqi president Maliki has told Sadr that the offensive would halt if the Mahdi Army surrenders all its weapons, stops attacking, or trying to infiltrate (by joining) the security forces, and hands over members wanted for crimes. So far, Sadr refuses, probably because many of his followers would turn on him if he tried. But Sadr also realizes that the Iraqi soldiers and police are capable, eventually, of grinding the Mahdi Army into nothingness. Another month or so of fighting and the Mahdi Army will be no more.

Al Sadr, and many of his followers, see all this violence against them as a plot by the Badr Organization to be the last major militia standing. The Badr Organization began as a Shia anti-Saddam exile group, in Iran, a quarter century ago. But the Badr "Brigade" renounced the use of force, formed a political party, and urged its Brigade members to join the army and police. This they did, and many believe these former militiamen are still loyal to their Badr Brigade bosses. But the Badr leaders insist that the Brigade is no more, and the Badr Organization is strictly political. In any event, the Badr people have been more cooperative with the government than the Sadr crew.

Meanwhile, Sunni Arab politicians have returned to the government. These Sunni Arab political parties had walked out of the government nine months ago, angry over the failure to guarantee their rights, safety and share of the oil revenue. Since then, the Sunni Arab terrorism effort has been shattered, with many of the Sunni Arab terror groups switched sides and joined the war against al Qaeda.

Iraq is trying to get its Arab neighbors to forgive some $65 billion in Saddam era debts, without much success. Most of the money was borrowed in the 1980s, when Iraq was at war with Iran. Iraq has already had some $65 billion in debts, mostly to Russia and European nations, forgiven. But the Arabs want their money. The other Arab states in the region see Shia dominated Iraq as a potential ally of Iran, and not "real" Arabs. Conservative Sunni Arab clerics regularly preach that Shia Moslems (like most Iraqis and nearly all Iranians) are heretics and not to be trusted.

The government is openly proclaiming the decline, if not complete destruction, of Sunni Arab terrorist group al Qaeda, at least in Iraq. There are far fewer suicide bomb attacks, and most of them are individuals wearing explosive belts, rather that more elaborate car or truck bombs. Moreover, the targets are all "soft" (easy to reach civilians). Al Qaeda is trying to be selective, going after the leaders of Sunni Arab groups that switched sides in the past few months. It is this kind of brutality that caused Sunni Arab groups to turn on al Qaeda, but that kind of logic is lost on the remaining terrorists.

Up north, Turkish warplanes and artillery continue to hit suspected PKK bases along the Iraqi border. The Kurdish government in the north protests, but quietly. No one in the region wants to get into a squabble with the Turks, especially not the Turkish army.

All those Arab states are making money hand over fist off of oil and many of them supported the insurgents in Iraq. Now they won’t forgive the $65 billion in debt. They were only too happy to have Iraq fight Iran on their behalf

I would hope that at least Kuwait would forgive that debt.

The Sauds are such scumbags. I really wonder if we shouldn’t have invaded them first and taken the oil fields along the Gulf and told the royals over in Jeddah to pound sand...they are the root of the problem...

Then we can turn our attention to Iran.

They are BOTH real enemies.

DuH2 · #2 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 06:22 PM

Voltaire · #3 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 06:27 PM

Made my night, good to hear.

Fear-And-Loathing · #4 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 06:30 PM

Hopefully the rest of the country will follow suit.

The problem with attacking Saudi Arabia is we would be playing into Bin Laden's prophecy and most of the Middle East will rise up. Think about it, we already occupy two countries in the Middle East do you really think they'll stand back if we invade another? Any other country occupying the land where Mecca is will have to deal with every single extremist in the whole Middle East. Imagine Vietnam times 100.

Bin Laden knew the US would attack if he attacked it. He knew the US would go on to attack another country in the region whlie its there (Saddam most likely) which is exactly what he wanted. He wanted us to go there and get bogged down in a never ending insurgency.

As far as I'm concerned we need to finish what we've already started and pull back. We need to prove we can turn Iraq and Afghanistan into stable countries and then we need to leave and start finding alternative methods to power our cars, homes etc etc

Bottom line is, is that this war is bankrputing us and the Chinese are buying up all our debt. That gives them power over us. Before it was the Middle Easterners who had power over us and too a large extent they still do. To sort out the Middle Easterners power over us we invaded them. Invading China doesn't really seem an option. To eliminate both of these problems and continue Pax Americana (I do love that word

) we need to finish the job asap and use all that money we were spending on the war (once its finished) to develop alternative energy. You see?

Voltaire · #5 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 06:48 PM

If I may...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fear-And-Loathing

Hopefully the rest of the country will follow suit.

The problem with attacking Saudi Arabia is we would be playing into Bin Laden's prophecy and most of the Middle East will rise up. Think about it, we already occupy two countries in the Middle East do you really think they'll stand back if we invade another? Any other country occupying the land where Mecca is will have to deal with every single extremist in the whole Middle East. Imagine Vietnam times 100.

Not necessary, supply and demand wll strongarm the actions of the federal government. We are a capiltalist society, the consumer as a whole is bent but never broken. We have plenty of oil in Alaska and here in the US, and if I'm not mistaken Brazil just found a reserve that rivals Saudi Arabias. Those will last if absolutely necessary, and by then alternate fuels will be more prevalent.

Bin Laden knew the US would attack if he attacked it. He knew the US would go on to attack another country in the region whlie its there (Saddam most likely) which is exactly what he wanted. He wanted us to go there and get bogged down in a never ending insurgency.

Sadamm was the only Sunni despot left in that region, now it's predominately Shia. I miss how that is what bin laden would have wanted, being al-Qaida is Sunni. If I'm not mistaken al-Qaida is actually blaming Iran for diverting 9/11 responsibility from them.

As far as I'm concerned we need to finish what we've already started and pull back. We need to prove we can turn Iraq and Afghanistan into stable countries and then we need to leave and start finding alternative methods to power our cars, homes etc etc

Sounds good, but the devil is in the details.

Bottom line is, is that this war is bankrputing us and the Chinese are buying up all our debt. That gives them power over us. Before it was the Middle Easterners who had power over us and too a large extent they still do. To sort out the Middle Easterners power over us we invaded them. Invading China doesn't really seem an option. To eliminate both of these problems and continue Pax Americana (I do love that word

) we need to finish the job asap and use all that money we were spending on the war (once its finished) to develop alternative energy. You see?

This war is not bankrupting us, it is simply diminshing our ability to use credit as a nation and devaluing our currency as a people. These things have happened before. And so what if the Chinese are buying up our debt? Invading China? The Chinese are buying American debt for the same reason I do, it's a guaranteed return on investment. I trust the Chinese about as far as I can throw their population, but the fact remains as far as "money=power" is concerned. We have it, they want it, no need to fight.

Glad you have your opinions, now challenge them!

sunnyside · #6 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 06:51 PM

While I don't like a lot of things about them the Saudis have seemed to be fairly good allies.

JP5 · #7 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdude17*

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq.../20080428.aspx

All those Arab states are making money hand over fist off of oil and many of them supported the insurgents in Iraq. Now they won’t forgive the $65 billion in debt. They were only too happy to have Iraq fight Iran on their behalf

I would hope that at least Kuwait would forgive that debt.

The Sauds are such scumbags. I really wonder if we shouldn’t have invaded them first and taken the oil fields along the Gulf and told the royals over in Jeddah to pound sand...they are the root of the problem...

Then we can turn our attention to Iran.

They are BOTH real enemies.

Agreed! Can you just imagine how the dynamics would change if our own country would announce that we are drilling in ANWR and stepping up our oil exploration over here? And that we are taking steps towards nuclear energy and towards becomming more energy independent? After all, I just heard the other day that Saudi Arabia is for the first time experiencing some problems with drilling. This is why we should ALL DEMAND that our Congress and Senate ACT without delay to pass legislation allowing drilling in ANWR and legislation to start a nuclear energy program. I personally think we would start to see a huge change in the dynamics where the Middle East has had the upper hand on energy for way too long. All this, in addition to our continuation of research and development of renewables and alternatives, of course.

Write your Congressman and Senator and demand it. I know that I am and so are my family, friends, and neighbors. Let's fill up their e-mail boxes in D.C.with a clear message!!!!!

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
US, Iraqi Troops Advance against Mahdi Army	DiscerningBlog	Political Blogs	0	04-16-2008 05:50 PM
Operations vs Mahdi Army completes fourth day	MrRelevant	Current Events	2	03-29-2008 02:57 PM
Iraqi Army vs. the Mahdi Army in Basra	SeminalBlog	Political Blogs	0	03-25-2008 01:00 PM
Mahdi Army Gains Strength Through Unwitting Aid of U.S.	Truth-Bringer	Current Events	0	02-04-2007 07:01 AM
The Mahdi Army in Iraq	JP5	Ethnic & Religious Conflicts	17	01-30-2007 08:29 PM