August, Week 2: Trump's craaazy week.

Ok, let's consider what happened in Trumpland this week. Remember, this was the week where he was supposed to "pivot", just like the week before and the week before that... :

First, on Monday Trumpy gave a "speech" on the economy, with help of a (GASP) Teleprompter. And he misprounounced "cities", with "t" at the beginning of the word. Oh, well, what's a misspeak under friends, eh? BTW, the speech was a dud and barely anyone noticed.

Then, Mr. Personality said many times over that Pres. Obama actually founded ISIS. Later, he said that Obama and Clinton were actually co-founders. When a right-wing radio host tried to give him an out from this obvious screw-up, he didn't help himself. He said he meant it LITERALLY. In fact, he said it twice. Then, he said that Clinton won the MVP award from ISIS. Now, let's consider that ISIS (or ISIL, however you want to call it, it means the same terrorist group) is our enemy and accusing the POTUS of actually being the founder of an enemy group is to accuse him of treason. What rot and what utter stupidity. Of course, after Republicans who actually know how to win elections were once again forced to pee their pants over Trump's Mouth-Diarhhea, he tried to roll it back on Friday and said that it was just "sarcasm". Really? LOL....

Then, Mr. Juristic-Wunderkind said that US-Military tribunals could and should try American civilians should they be accused of terrorist acts. Or he would send them to GITMO. Apparently, Trumpyboy never read all "12" articles to the Constitution, cuz what he proposes is unconstitutional. What stupidity.

Of course, the big moment of the week was the "Second Amendment" moment, where he more than inferred/implied that Hillary Clinton, should she be elected the next POTUS (she will), should be assassinated by someone. What Trump did is actually in violation of US Legal Code and should be punished with a jail sentence, but that is unlikely to happen. However, Trump has ruined it for future generations and more importantly, he has further damaged the GOP. It's one thing to attack a candidate based on positions and no one ever said that two candidates have to like each other. But this kind of stuff is really beyond the pale and will surely land at the top of the list of all the absolutely mind-bogglingly brazen and stupid things that Trump has said and done during this campaign. Anyone who watched the moment can clearly see that he absolutely knows what he was doing. The use of "I dunno" (of course he knows), the body-language and the statement itself, indicating what could happen AFTER Hillary Clinton were elected in order to prevent her from nominating a Supreme Court Justice who is not necessarily aligned with the extreme Right-Wing social agenda. And we all know what many pols meant and still mean by phrases like "2nd Amendment solution" (see: Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin)....

So, instead of actually campaigning and talking about policy proposals, Trump did those things. And stupid as he is, he completely missed an opportunity to swipe at Clinton, where the Orlando terrorist's father attended one of her rallies, because former Rep. Mark Foley, the dude who liked to diddle young male pages and bend them over, was seated right behind Trump at one of his rallies. More family values. Uhuh. Gotta say, Trump's team is also stupid. Anyone who allows that crap in front of national TV is wholly incompetent.

And all of these things happened while poll after poll after poll (none of them yet reflecting the crazy (*)(*)(*)(*) he said this week) shows him completely tanking in all of that battlegrounds and verifiably far behind:

in New Hampshire (aggregate Clinton +15), Virginia (aggregate Clinton +12), Colorado (aggregate Clinton +11), Pennsylvania (aggregate Clinton +10), North Carolina (aggregate Clinton +5), Ohio (aggregate Clinton +4.5) and Florida (aggregate Clinton +3.5) and Iowa (aggregate Clinton +1.7). Nationally, on the aggregate, Trump is behind Clinton by between 7-9 points and it is showing in statewide polling. Meanwhile, Georgia has opened up as a true battleground and Clinton is ahead there right now (aggregate Clinton +3) and it is a near mathematical tie in Arizona (aggregate Trump +0.5).

And in so-called "safe" GOP states? Well, in Kansas (a GOP +20 state) it's Trump +5, in Utah (a GOP +40 state), it's Trump +12 and in South Carolina (a GOP +11 state) it's Trump +2. +2 is a statistical tie, btw. The ONLY polling this week showing a good Trump number was one poll out of Texas (a GOP +20 state), showing Trump +11. BTW, that is the margin with which McCain won TX while losing nationally to Obama by 7.3 points. The pattern is clear and absolutely undeniable: Clinton is flying high in ALL of the battleground states except Iowa and Trump is experiencing extremely depressed margins in what should be core GOP states, plus he is currently losing Georgia. Things are going so well for Clinton in some states, she has currently pulled advertisting out of Colorado and Virginia - and Trump has done no new ad buys in those two key states yet....

All at the same time, the GOP itself is turning more and more against Trump:

-Maine GOP Senator Susan Collins, in her WAPO op-ed, is refusing to support Trump. That is yet another GOP Senator who wants nothing to do with the man. "I will not be voting for Donald Trump for President"

-A group of 50 national security professionals who have served from Nixon through Bush 43 (most all of them Republican), are refusing to support Trump and have called him extremely dangerous.

-70 GOPers who are of some name and fame are begging Reince Priebus and the RNC to drop funding for Trump. Trump responded by saying, well gee, he'll just stop funding the RNC and if he loses, well, so what....

And folks, that was just this week, not to mention the entire 10-day bizarre feud between Trump and two Gold-Star parents who also happen to be Muslim.

And here are NINE MORE Republicans who are refusing to support Trump (some of that is old information). Check out Rick Wilson's words. Ouch.

Now, I have witnessed campaigns falling apart before, the most notable example out of the past being the ill-fated George McGovern 1972 campaign. But George McGovern never had this kind of opposition within his own party once he was nominated (there was opposition up to and during the convention). With the Eagleton fiasco, it was obvious that the wheels were falling off the McGovern campaign. And the stuff that happened back then looks like eagle-scout, milk and cookies stuff compared to what we see happen in the Trump campaign every single day. It is ..... BIZARRE. And I venture to say that for any other candidate, had he committed just one of these trumpian missteps, his campaign would already be totally dead. Actually, so is Trump's. He is just to egotistical to admit it yet. And I bet good money that he will stiff many of the people who are helping him now once he has lost in November.

And so I am going to go out on a limb (this is really easy to do, I admit) and predict that polling in the next two weeks is going to look even more brutal for Trump than it does now. The reasoning is simple: once again, where he had a week to pivot even a bit to the middle and look halfway sane, he picked a different path. He accused the President of treachery, he advocated for the assasination of Clinton, he thinks that American citizens should be sent to GITMO (that flopper kind of went under in the tumult of the week, I think) and he really doesn't give a crap about the RNC.

Clinton's polling bounce will continue next week. Guaranteed. And not just in national polling. In state polling as well.

What a wild week. Links to this information can be found all over the net. So, have fun.

-Stat

Derideo_Te perotista TomFitz bigfella Natty Bumpo tsuke Cosmo FreshAir Gaius_Marius joepistole CourtJester Guno mertex Paperview Pardy PARTIZAN1 toddwv liberalminority Vandalshandle wolfsister77 Ronstar PeppermintTwist bwk akphidelt2007 bois darc chunk btthegreat Gorn Captain Andrew Jackson bigfella

 

And yesterday Pence issued a statement blaming the Press because they "Took Trump seriously".. I'm still reeling.

 

I almost feel sorry for Mike Pence. But only almost. Because he himself is also an extreme Right-Wing kook of the weirdest sort.

 

I've started a bet with a good friend as to how long it will take before Reince Priebus withdraws his support for Trump....

 

Thanks for the summary, OP. Well done!

Trump continues to self destruct, thankfully.
Trump said that the only way he loses Pennsylvania is if there is widespread voting fraud. Clinton leads Trump there by 10 points odd.
Trump called the media "the lowest form of life."
link for these comments:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/12/politics/donald-trump-pennsylvania-cheating/

Way to go down in flames, Trump... and without a shred of dignity.

 

He's going to crush Clinton in the debates, that I can tell you.

 

Don't worry about it too much. Did you happen to see how corrupt Hillary is? Wow, the Clintons were actually caught taking cash money for favors while Secretary of State, I couldn't believe it. (Lol, yes I could) wait till you see the roller coaster polls this week. The way the bias media is on an all out assault on Donald Trump , lucky his opponent is more criminal then Capone! !!!

 

Trump is no doubt right again.
How can any human actually pull the lever and vote for Hillary after all this evidence that she took bribes for favors as Secretary of State?

 

Waiting to see if someone starts a thread on the topic of Chris Cuomo's startling comments "we couldn't help hillary any more than we have".
http:/bizpacreview.com/2016/08/12/cnns-cuomo-comes-right-admits-couldnt-help-hillary-377744

 

The election's a choice:



- - - Updated - - -

The election's a choice:

 

Awesome OP!

I almost missed this link but I am so glad that I took the time and trouble to read it all the way through because it deserves to be highlighted IMO.

http://www.salon.com/2016/08/12/tru...ublicans-who-cannot-get-behind-trump_partner/

9 of the craziest of the extreme right who are openly stating that they are now opposed to Trump!

This is the part where the rats are starting to abandon the sinking Trumptanic.

Yes, I can understand the moderates and the NSA Republicans speaking out against him but when the extreme right mouthpieces are calling out Trump and shunning him that takes things to a whole new level.

As the OP pointed out this is unprecedented on so many levels but to see Trump starting to lose the base that supported him in the primaries takes the cancer analogy to stage 4. At this point it doesn't really matter how much time there is left to "turn this around" because it is never going to happen. Trump has set his course and he won't deviate from it. He knows best and all the experts and pundits be damned.

This is not going to end well IMO!

 

Nice summary Stat.

I think there is evidence that the polling is coming back a bit - but coming back from the 7-9 range to the 5-7 range. The danger for Trump is that he gets stuck in the 5-6 range under the weight of his own bloated ego.

 

No.. Trump will talk over Hillary, whine and posture and the public will end up hating him.

 

Well, that is an interesting point. There may have been a mini-scandal there with Clinton, but we don't know for sure. What we DO know is that Trump sucked all of the oxygen out of the room with his stupidity and so he shot himself unwittingly in the foot (rhetorically, of course, for special snowflake Trumpites who might get all umbraged....) by doing so....

 

Thanks!!! And yeah, when a GOP nominee loses Mark Levin, who is as hard right as they come.... and Glenn Beck.... who is as crazy-assed as they get...... well, it's very interesting!!

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I doubt that. I bet very strongly that within 11 days, we will be in the 9-11 range. Wait and see.

 

I'm amazed at how some people post accusations as if they were proven fact. Hillary Clinton's conduct may be unseemly at times, but no one has yet to show that she's done anything illegal. Calling her a criminal is a downright lie. She has never been formally accused of committing a crime let alone convicted of one. Her questionable ethics do not rise to the level of criminality.

By the way, when I read the thread title, I had to ask myself which of Trump's crazy weeks was involved. Almost every week is a crazy Trump week.

 

The NYT has an in-depth look at what is going on in the Trump campaign team while all this is happening. It's an interesting look at how he is ignoring advice and his attitude as it all unravels around him.

 

Well, in my defence, the thread title does say "August, Week 2".....

 

Nice to see it all in one place. Notice the trumpbots who had the misfortune to post in here made only deflections, and all suffer from 'but hillary, but hillary" tourettes.

 

Stat,

I heard a figure yesterday that you are uniquely positioned to comment on. It was claimed that if you add up the states where Clinton has a double digit poll lead she already has enough electoral college votes to win. Do you know if this is accurate or close to accurate? If so this election is over barring 'acts of God'.

 

The RINOS and neocon Republicans oppose Trump and everyone already knew this - and with Hillary Clinton as the NEW opposite direction of the Democratic Party many Democrats now totally agree with the Republican neocons.

 

YES and NO. Not every single state within the blue wall has been polled, for instance, Rhode Island - at least, not recently. But if Clinton is still at around +20 in New York, then she is absolutely guaranteed to be well over +20 in Rhode Island and in Delaware and Vermont. She is verifiably at an aggregate of +15 in New Hampshire, an aggregate that Obama never, ever reached in this state in either 2008 or 2012 - and she has reached this point very early in the campaign. Since New Hampshire is considered by both sides (and rightly so) to be the weakest link in the Blue Wall in the NE/Acela states, then logically, if she is landsliding here, she is landsliding in all of the other NE/Acela states that posted higher performances rates for a Democratic presidential nominee in the last many cycles. Likewise, she is now at an aggregate of +10 in Pennsylvania, +10 in Michigan and (the next one is not an aggregate) +15 Wisconsin. Wisconsin was absolutely one of the two weakest links in the ENTIRE blue wall in both 2000 and 2004 and the landslide margins we saw for Obama in Wisconsin in 2008 were a clear sign of an impending national win. BTW, Obama's aggregate in WI never, ever reached +15, but as I wrote, in the case of the Badger state, this is not yet an aggregate. In Colorado and in Virginia, Clinton's aggregate is over +10 (+14 in Colorado, +11 in Virginia). Obama never, ever had such aggregates in either of these states. In fact, in August 2008, he was more often than not behind in Virginia.

The only states where Clinton is not posting an aggregate landslide margin are Florida, Ohio and Iowa and indeed, without them, she is currently at 272 EV. And that doesn't even consider NE-02, which may very well go for the former SOS. Again, just to be clear, I want to stress that not every single blue wall state has been recently polled, but the logic (and it is good, solid logic) is that the states that are considered lynchpin states in the wall, if they are posting landslide margins, then the other states that have traditionally posted larger margins are guaranteed to be in the same league this year around. Clinton going into the Fall with +15 in New Hampshire, +10 or more in Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is truly bad news for the Trump campaign. I've seen campaigns turn around +7 to +8 point deficits. That is indeed possible. I have never seen a campaign (I am talking about state polling, now) turn around a 15 point deficit in less than 90 days and I challenge anyone who wants to take up the gauntlet to show statistical data to prove me wrong.

 

Thanks Stat. Sounds like that factoid was more or less on the money. Bad news for Trump.

 

So every Republican who isn't crazy as heck is a RINO or neocon? Sweet! Way to keep everyone on the fringes and no one in the middle. Good way to gridlock everything and get nothing done.

 

I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will not take even one state in November, how really likely is that as I'm thinking of making some wagers.