Trump Approval / Disapproval - a fine point to watch

I report, you decide!!

 

Last Friday, President Trump's approval/disapproval was at: -18.1
As of today, September 6th, 2017, his approval/disapproval is at: -17.1
Please note: Pres. Trump's decision to cancel Obama's DACA was just announced yesterday, so approval polling does not even include this factor yet.




That's an aggregate improvement of +1 point for the President, not far from the realm of statistical noise, as always, but it is still an improvement and worth noting. But equally important is to note is that the polling DNA gene pool went from 11 polls to 9 polls. The GWU, Pew and Marist polls were simply dropped from the statistic, although the end-date of those polls is not yet one month old and RCP tends to keep conservative leaning polls that are 1-timers and not just rolling polls (see: Rasmussen) in for about 5 weeks, a fact that is easily provable. That being said, most all polling is showing a very slight uptick for the President, so let's take the -17.1 for what it is: an aggregate number. It is still by far the worst approval rating for any American president in his 7th month in all of polling history, bar none. It's now been more than one week since Hurricane Harvey wiped out a large swath of Texas, so the 1 point uptick may be partially due to this event. But another Category FIVE storm is on it's way to Florida, so there is also no let-up on that front.

Surely pollsters of all stripes will be asking about the rescinding of DACA in the next days and we will then see if this will make a difference in his numbers. I suspect it will and that Republican stategists are going to be pretty much convince that the GOP will lose up to 90% of the Latino vote for a couple of generations to come.

The concensus among virtually all analysts, including (and this is very important) very strong Trump surrogates, is that everything he has done thus far has been to solidify is core "base" of voters, that he has essentially given up all hope of winning the support of Democrats and any kind of minorities. His hardest core of supporters are those who will support him not matter what. This is not surprising: every president has such a core of supporters, but usually, that core is much larger than what we are seeing right now with Pres. Trump. It was smaller with Nixon, but that was after 6 years and directly before a very likely impeachment and a guaranteed conviction (he was only able to count on the support of about 15 Senators in August of 1974).

Of course, one of the big questions will be how Trump's dismal polling numbers will play in the 2018 mid-terms, where, historically speaking, the party in the White House gets a pasting at the mid-terms. See: 2010, 1994, 1990, 1982, 1974 etc. With very few exceptions (2002 comes to mind), the party in control of the White House takes a real hit come mid-term elections. Obama's approval numbers were still in positive territory at this time 8 years ago and yet, his party lost 63 seats in the HOR during the 2010 midterms. Wait and see.

-Stat

 

Interesting statistic for those who cling to such polls. Funny how favorable results are hardly ever mentioned in this thread.


WASHINGTON SECRETS

Boom: 70% of Obama voters who switched to Trump still approve

by Paul Bedard | Sep 6, 2017, 2:20 PM

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/b...itched-to-trump-still-approve/article/2633565

 

Time to look at these stats again. On September 6th, 2017, Pres. Trump's approval/disapproval aggregate stood at: -17.1
Today, Wednesday, October 18th, 2017, 6 weeks later, his approval/disapproval stands at: -17.0, unchanged.




That aggregate, as usual, from RCP, includes polls taken between 9/24 and 10/15 and includes values as disparate as Trump -6 to Trump -28.
Oh, but wait, another poll from an accredited pollster who has been listed here before was somehow mysteriously "forgotten" by RCP, namely the AP/NORC poll, which was conducted from 9/28-10/2, later than the bottom three polls on this list, and those results are Trump -35. Yes, you read that correctly. At 32/67, -35, this is by far the worst value the President has received, and that only in the 10th month of his presidency. So, if you include this value in the aggregate, where it logically belongs, then his approval/disapproval is currently: -18.5, not far from his peak -20.0 back in late July/early August.

More importantly, in most approve/disapprove polling for a president, a distinction is made between "somewhat approve/disapprove" and "strongly approve/disapprove". It's commonly accepted (without any or much argument at all) that those in the "strong" category are those people whose minds are not going to be changed much in one way or another.

So, let's look at some of these. First, the AP/NORC poll that RCP deliberately neglected to include:





Since this is a poll taken quartely (3,6,9,12), we can see the development. From the end of March to the end of September, Trump's disapproval overall went from 58 to 64 and now, 67, a jump of 12 points deeper underwater. But in the category "strongly disapprove", he went from 43 to 47 and now 50% who "strongly disapprove" - an absolutely stunning number (in the negative sense of the word) for a President so early in his term.

If you don't want to believe that poll, there are similar numbers from others, like the FOX poll:



In spite of the fact that the overall FOX value (Trump -11) is far more gracious to him than the AP value (Trump -35), the "strongly disapprove" value, at 45, is actually more damning, because in the AP poll the 50% out of 67% total who disapprove means 74.62% of all respondents who disapprove disapprove strongly, while with Fox, the 45% out of 53% means that 84.91% of all respondents who disapprove disapprove strongly, and that from a pollster who is known to be very friendly to the President.

Moving on to IPSOS/Reuters:




The IPSOS/Reuters graph is different because it provides no comparison to the past, but does give a breakdown by party. So, here, of the entire disapprove category, 43% of respondents strongly disapprove of the President's job performance. That's 72.88% of all respondents who disapprove in total. But look across party lines: 71% of Democrats strongly disapprove. Even 10% of Republicans strongly disapprove. We can accept that as a likely possibility by almost any president. But the Independent figure is the killer: 47% of Independents strongly disapprove. This is not a statistic that any president ever wants to reach.

On to USToday/Suffolk:



Of a total 38.1 / 55.9, which RCP rounded to 38/56, -18, 35% of Suffolk respondents strongly disapprove of Pres. Trump's performance. That's 62.61% of all respondents who disapprove in some way. Yes, this is the same Suffolk pollster who in 2012, one month before the presidential election, on October 9th, 2012, already declared, on TV, the states of VA, NC and FL for Romney and then had egg on their faces for 4 years.

Onward to Quinnipiac:



With Qpiac's internals, we get the best of both worlds: a comparison to the past and an extensive breakdown, not just by party, but by race, age and gender.
50% of all Qpiac respondents strongly disapprove of Pres. Trump's performance. That's 89.29% of all respondents who disapprove. Along party lines it's R9, D88 and I50 and I still contend that the I value is the most important of them all, because you cannot win elections without swinging the I-middle to your side, it's that simple.

On to PBS/Marist:



With PBS/Marist, among RV's overall it is 39/54, -15.
44% of all respondents (RVs) strongly disapprove of Pres. Trump's job performance. That's 81.48% of all respondents who disapprove in some way.
And this 44% tracks perfectly with the 43% of Independents who strongly disapprove of Pres. Trump.
There is a big difference in this statistic between white college grads and non-college grads (50 / 29) and a disparity between men and women.

Onward to IBD-TIPP:



I have emailed IBD about the specific internals, but it should be obvious that there is no publication more pro-business and pro-conservatism than IBD itself.
Read the text above, especially about Trump's fall in the South.

So, I have to get to work now. That's enough extra data to keep people busy. I would have gladly included Rasmussen's polling internals, but Rasmussen doesn't provide them and what little it does provide, it hides behind a paywall...

The long and short of it is that not only is Trump in a deep hole with the American public, the percentage of people who really strongly disapprove of what he is doing it at or close to 50%. We have never before in the history of polling seen such strong disapproval for a President this early in his term, and historically, as time wears on, it usually only gets worse.

-Stat

 

Thanks for posting this data and analysis

 

Just glancing at the public's current and consistent verdict on trumpery:

Marist, 10/15-10/17: 37% approval / 55% disapproval

CNN, 10/12-1015: 37% approval / 57% disapproval

Gallup, 10/16-10/18: 36% approval / 59% disapproval

... and the exodus of senior Congressional Republicans who have had enough of the nonsense ...

Lawmakers have grown increasingly frustrated with Trump’s penchant for drama and inability to focus on the legislative agenda, numerous House GOP lawmakers and staffers said. While Trump and most Republican voters blame Congress for nothing substantial getting done, GOP lawmakers are privately exasperated that they don’t have a coherent leader who can help them deliver.
​

... 2018 could feature internecine mayhem and carnage between bomb thrower Bannon's brood and the hapless birdbrains who welcomed his cuckoo eggs into their nest.

​

 

Marist Poll, released 19 October, 2017:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1019-president-trump-legacy-may-be-as-one-of-the-worst-u-s-presidents/

So, before I go too deeply into this, the core value (approve/disapprove): 37/55, Trump -18, almost exactly in line with my average from yesterday.

Let's compare that with Obama's values from the very same pollster, almost exactly 8 years ago:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1014-p...ng-at-53loses-more-ground-among-independents/

Obama, almost exactly 8 years ago: 53/41, Obama +12

Back to the Marist-Data for Trump, October 2017:
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-con...the Sample and Tables_October 2017.pdf#page=3



You can easily compare these numbers to the numbers from my posting from 10/19, which had the Marist Poll from the end of September:

Just about 4 weeks ago, according to Maris, 43% of Independents disapproved of the Pres.'s job performance. Now that number hast jumped to 59%.
That is a HUGE jump, and among the soft-middle of America, the middle that decides elections..
As probably suspected, the President is deeply underwater in every classification except among Evangelical Christians (Trump +41) and white non-college grads (Trump +7).

Let's compare that data table with Obama's from 8 years ago:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-con...07/Obama_HC_Economy/Obama Approval Rating.htm



So, some key data-points from 8 years ago. 8 years ago, Obama was also underwater with Independents, but just by 2 points, not by 25 points as in the case of Trump.
8 years ago, Obama enjoyed hefty approval in 3 of four geographical regions of the Union. Only in the South was he underwater. Trump, on the other hand, is deeply water overall (-31 in the Northeast, -16 in the Midwest, -9 in the South and -23 in the West).

So, just to recap, with Marist:

Obama, October 2009: +12
Trump, October 2017, -16 (RV), -18 (Adults)

That's a 28-30 point spread in approval between the two respective Presidents at the very same juncture in their presidencies.

-Stat

 

A note of clarification for the record. There is a series of posts from 155-160 between osbornberry and myself, in which for one reason or another, our respective quotes are screwed up so that I am quoted as writing things that I did not and would not, as is osbornberry. The words are accurate, but are not clearly identified to the right author. I am not in the habit of singing the praises of Donald Trump's accomplishments.

 

Yes, that seems to happen on occasion. Not sure how it gets started.

 

Its a lot more serious if you get quoted as listing a bunch of Trump's 'successes'. I feel like I soiled myself but all the showers in the world cannot remove the aroma..

 

Trump doing no such thing, about all he does is tweet and play golf

 

I’m a bit skeptical of these polls and reliance on their figures, we all remember how well they handled Trump’s chances at election, when two reputable pollsters are this far apart, one has to wonder:

But Gallup says only 36 percent approve.

 

They are not as far apart as you may think.

Ras: Trump -17
Gallup: Trump -22

Difference: 5 points

Ras is well known for a "house effect" between 4-5 point to the advantage of the right.
Both Ras and Gallup were shamed for their bad 2012 polling that was 4-5 points to the right, not the left.

And just to remind, the polls in 48 of 50 states were exactly on the mark in 2016.
Trump still LOST in the NPV by 3,000,000 votes in 2012, which was reflected in national polling.
Michigan polling and Florida polling showed a statistical tie before election day, Trump won both of those states well within the MoE for that polling.
Only in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania was the polling aggregate off.

Not only that, presidential approval/disapproval polling is different than election polling, especially the rolling polling from firms that do it every single day.

Food for thought for you.

 

It’s silly to attempt to divert from Trump’s relentlessly dismal approval numbers by pretending his November 2016 electoral college victory discredited polls that accurately tracked the shift in support from Clinton to him in the waning days of the campaign.

The final polls confirmed that shift, and Clinton’s receiving 2.9 million more votes was not far off the mark. In fact, the overall average margin of error was smaller than in 2012, lending credence to the public assessment of Trump by all current surveys.

Election 2016 Presidential Polls
Tuesday, November 8

IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 45, Johnson 8, Stein 2 Trump +2

IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 42 Clinton +1

LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 47 Trump +3

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/#!
​

 

The raging masses are largely ignorant. That said, the Trump Presidency is turning out to be a train wreck.

 

Oh, indeed.

 

On October 18th, 2017, 12 days ago, President Trump's approve/disapprove aggregate stood at: -17.0
As of today, October 30th, 2017, the aggregate according to RCP is: Trump -17.3





Deliberately missing from this list, just as the AP-NORC poll from the beginning of the month never made the list, is the WAPO poll showing Trump -26 (37/63), so I am including it here, in various iterations:


















The poll was released on October 28th, before Gallup and before the WSJ poll, but again, somehow, RCP just couldn't find a way to publish it.

So, looking at the hardest of data, some cogent points:

1.) among RVs (not just adults), among those who STRONGLY disapprove, it's 49%, which btw is exactly the same percentage as the FOX poll.

2.) The values among independents is the most damning factor, here. We expect a President's party to overwhelmingly approve of him and the opposing party to overwhelmingly disapprove of him (although 22% disapproval among his own party is ususual), but the Independents are the voters who decide elections and a -31 among independents is not just underwater terrritory, it is Titanic on the bottom of the ocean territory.

3.) A look at the non-white voters tell us how effective the President's dogwhistles have been.

4.) And finally, in terms of geographical regions, he is tanking in the Midwest (which got him elected) and even underwater in the one remaining GOP bastion: the South.

Let's look at the "strongly disapprove" from some other polls:

NBC/WSJ poll:



Trump -23 among Independents.

And the internals:



"strongly" disapprove: 49%


Foxnews Poll:





"strongly" disapprove: 49%
Somehow, Fox is able to find more people who strongl approve of the President than any other pollster...

IPSOS / REUTERS:



"strongly" disapprove: 47%

CNN:


"strongly" disapprove: 47%

If you factor the WAPO -26 into the current RCP aggregate, then the actual aggregate would be: Trump -18.0
And the stong outlier (Emerson, Trump -6) is going to fall out of the statistic in the next days, so this is easily going to jump to Trump -20 due purely to time-frame issues.

You will note that FOX actually has a slightly higher percentage that strongly disapproves of President Trump's job performance than: CNN.

The long and short of this is that not only is Pres. Trump still in a deep, deep hole, but rather, literally 1/2 of the country STRONGLY disapproves of him, he is tanking badly among independents and has lost ground in every geographical region of the country.

And this is the aggregate BEFORE the indictments/arrests (yes, plural) from the grand jury about the russian scandal come out.

-Stat

 

Comparing the WAPO polls from last July to the latest one above shows an interesting change amongst those who formerly had "no opinion" of the BLOTUS.





To all intents and purposes the 6% of All Adults who had "no opinion" has disappeared and everyone now does have an opinion.

From what I am seeing it appears as though that group have come down hard by a factor of 5:1 against the BLOTUS.

This could account for why we are seeing these changes is negative ratings.

It is certainly the first time I can recall ever seeing polls that are this polarized WITHOUT having that "wiggle room" of "undecided" who might be swayed one way of the other. They have been swayed and the results are not good for the BLOTUS regime. In essence there is no room left to improve.

 

Good observation. And thanks for sharing.

 

It should be noted that with Gallup, Trump just went from 35/60 (-25) to now 33/62 (-29) - and this was BEFORE the indictments yesterday.

 

Yeah.

33% "Approval" seems a little bit off.

It is probably somewhere between 25-27%.

 

The alt right seems to be slow coming up to speed with deflections and talking points for the BLOTUS supporters to use to defend him. That is not a good sign since they had the entire weekend to prepare something.

On top of that there is now this latest debacle where Kelly made a really stupid remark and harmed his own credibility. With Kelly on the ropes that effectively leaves no adult in charge of the WH.

 

Yeah.

Kelly's credibility is dropping faster than a brick tossed from the top of the Empire St. Building.

Kelly has further DISGRACED the uniform of the Armed Services.

Trump remains an EGREGIOUSLY UNPREPARED IMBECILE (and Kelly is doing his best to join Trump on the MORON TRAIN).

Desperate Times for Trump's White House.

Sad time for America.

 

Since he is not up for re-election it doesn't matter what his approval rating is. At one point President Truman dropped below 20%. There is a necessary ebb-and-flow to popularity for presidents, but that is far too complex for most people to grasp. So, instead, we will see still another 100+ new threads started by Democrats believing and sneering that they are winning due to a popularity poll.

 

Democratic politicians frantically do not want voter fraud stopped. How can they win without it?