It 'feels like a recession' to a lot of people: ANZ

My husband and I are both self employed, and typical to this industry we feel any slowdown in the economy pretty much as it happens. In March this year we saw this article announce that Australia slipped into recession on a per capita basis
https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...s/news-story/c93b7e604e30f6ac21bf59f3eaaed3ec

However I've not really felt it until about 5 weeks ago where business basically dropped off the radar for three weeks, came roaring back for ten days then settled into a very lacklustre slow drip. This is two months out from Christmas, usually things are very busy this time of year.

According to another news outlet people are working harder to pay off debt and not spending their money. Which really is a predictable development due to extremely high levels of household debt.

What do you think, are you seeing any ominous signs in your environment.

https://www.afr.com/companies/finan...ession-to-a-lot-of-people-anz-20191023-p533ah

 

Now with this "recession" in mind the Victorian Andrews Government have decided to join Belt and Road. A program designed to increase Chinese GDP. Any Chinese money they spend in Australia, are loans to the Victorian rate payers and will have to be paid back by the Victorian rate payers, while the benefit of jobs and manufacturing of raw materials all go back to China.

Why is no one upset about this? Or rather why am I the only one angry over this sell out by Daniel Andrews

Victoria deepens engagement with Beijing's controversial Belt and Road initiative

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...th-china-controversial-belt-and-road/11636704

Not only that, we are currently in a building construction "cladding" scandal, also buildings cracking and sinking... do we really want Chinese construction in Victoria, that may be sub par and will take away jobs in an economy that are slowing

 

I agree. Sup with the devil....
Should we be so closely involved with a country whose citizens have risked being frozen to death, in order to attain a better standard of living?

 

Have to post this below vvv from 2015/16 financial year, situation will be worse now because of drought and low wages growth

880,000 living in poverty in 'wealthiest state in one of the world's wealthiest countries'
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/880-000...te-in-one-of-the-world-s-wealthiest-countries

This map shows the estimated rates of females aged 15 and over who are living in economic disadvantage in individual suburbs and localities.


Assuming red/pink worst with green best... will you look at our politicians living it up in Canberra... no wonder they are so out of touch

 

Clearly that's what their concentration camps are for... the path to better living standards. I say we toss all the pink and red areas in concentration camps... should sort them out in no time. I'm sure the tiny green dot will be in favour

 

Yes our politicians are out of touch. Not saying such stupid things as “ poor people don’t have cars, or touch the bank of mum and dad” but quite oblivious to the number of people who are doing it hard.

I cannot understand why dairy farmers aren’t getting more support. We should be self sufficient in our food production.
Good arable land close to our cities is being used for housing and further away, for cotton production.

why aren’t water thieves being hammered with the full force of the law?
Our dopey PM is seen pouncing about carrying drinks for rugby teams?
why isn’t he exhausted from sorting out the myriad problems faced by our country?

 

This is what happened in the U.S. two years before they slipped into an official recession.

There were problems but the "experts" in charge did not officially recognize them as part of any distinct trend. To some extent, this may be because there is a lag time between reality and collection of all the data. It can take a couple years for perceptions to begin to change and people to begin to realize that there are other people who are suffering. (The lag time very much has to do with human nature and the nature in which data is interpreted. People don't see social problems until it comes to their individual intention, and that can involve a chain of passive information transfer between a web of individuals, which takes time)

 

Regarding the Andrews government wanting to give Aussie jobs to China. This is not the time to be making such deals, if we are in recession or going into recession these infrastructure projects are what governments usually use to stimulate the economy... Andrews use infrastructure spending this to stimulate China's economy when Australia needs it most

 

Yep, we can do without becoming more indebted to China, as are other countries along the Silk, I mean one belt one road, road.
Maybe all the rules have changed while I wasn’t looking and it’s good to sell your soul.

 

thas sad... many Australians are doing it very tough, bureaucrats like Andrews are not paying attention

 

Scarlet, I don’t believe this is ominous sign at all. Now don’t get me wrong, what YOU report as your personal experience is far more indicative than the point of “recession on a per capita basis”

While it is important to examine the statistics of what is happening within and by influence of foreign interests, making determination using the “per capita basis” only stands to deceive the truth of the issue. IT is basically trying to conflate issues because you cannot use existing and straight forward statistics to show the skew you want. (not YOU but those who want to sound important)

However, to the much MORE relevant issue (I don’t dispute) the ups and downs of your business. Since Australia is a consumer nation it has become very reliant on global interests. Australia is completely at the mercy of any change to trading partners throughout the world. So the China-US trade war has dramatic influence on economy and people far more directly than any other nation. Thus, the wallets of people are starting to hurt. Put a drought in place to increase the cost of produce (food) and you have a perfect storm. So people are hanging on to the money they have and that money is doing nothing for them and they know it.

So, when the head of ANZ comes into the media trying to defend the fact that they have not only set interest rates at their own intent by digging up some obscure statistics to support their claim, they try to protect continued self-interest (business). I have to question that claim.

People have weighed the options of retaining their money and the lack of return for holding it to wait and see what happens. One mistake by the Australian government and things could be very different. I also believe this is an important time for opposition to act responsibly that does not mean agree with everything but not simply derail due to partisan politics.

However, there is decent reason to look to indicators and work on the premise that Australia is heading toward recession. I do think this is a time we can thank that Shorten has been tossed and Albanese is there. Perhaps now, opposition can operate as it was designed and not just work in self-interest.

 

mmm... ok, good point about the ANZ... and re the opposition

 

We need to have a recession, I am firmly against railing more economic cocaine. We will come down eventually and it'll be worse if we've been on a 3 week binge.

They are clearly testing the waters at the RBA to see if Austtalians have the appetite for a line of QE and a needle straight to the arm of negative interest rates and bail in.

Cop the downturn, come back stronger.

 

I do agree with you somewhat, but there are so many people with unsustainable debt that once a downturn comes it could turn into a rather nasty bloodbath. Of course the wealthy will use the downturn as an opportunity to shore up their assets and inequality will rise even higher.

 

this what happens when people live above their means, acrueing debt...

 

Yeah... but in Australia's case we've had foreign investment (Chinese in particular) push our real estate prices into what they refer to as a double bubble, one domestic and one foreign. High migration intakes kept the rent high and wages low, plus Australia is expensive in general to live in compared to most countries. Toss in a new car, overseas holiday and you're poised for doom.

 

The debt is the cocaine in this analogy. There is no plan to pay any of it down, neither for households nor government. By contrast, the entite point is to incentivise spending and discourage saving. Debt is a means to this end.

We will get progressively more aggressive on this until we reach the point of a bail-in, wherein cash is banned for most transactions and your bank balance is locked into the bank. Indeed, Morrison has already begun testing the waters by banning cash payments over $10,000.

The whole sham is to give our corporate overlords the first grab at the counterfeited cash before it loses its value. Who gets it first? Those who hold bonds, those with an account at the RBA. Banks. Party donors. When the bubble caused by monetary expansion pops rather than the state giving them a cash bailout they avoid it entirely through the people's inability to **** off in the first place.

We have two realistic options: cold turkey or tapering off.

 

People have already stopped spending so much, retail sales are down. Apparently they are working longer hours but instead of spending the money on goods they are paying off debt. The problem will be if people need to start selling their homes, it could trigger something nasty. If we avoid this we could end up stagnating for 5-10 years.

 

all the more reason to not live above one's means, overtime pay should never be included as 'means' ... things are made easy to get credit, auto loans & such, then the elites pull the plug to remind the middle classes of their real postition in life... pseudo indentured servants

 

Yes true, I do however feel sorry for people who bought homes at the top of the market, when prices drop it is going to hurt

 

yep, inflated market, sub-prime loans all add up to disaster... here in the usa, we felt that crunch & 25 years later we're still seeing high volume foreclisures & personal bankruptcies... progressive liberal policies will be the death of us all...

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/boom-turns-bust-here-are-14-signs-us-economy-steadily-weakening

The world is rooted...

 

Apropos Chinese “ investment”, did you see this? Might make a difference.
“A mansion in Melbourne's east, newly constructed units and more than 3,000 acres of Tasmanian farmland are among $17.3 million in property seized by authorities as part of an investigation into alleged money laundering by Chinese nationals.

The Australian Federal Police (AFP) this morning said it had seized six properties in Melbourne's east — including a new mansion in Mont Albert, three units and a townhouse in Box Hill North and a commercial property in Blackburn — and more than 3,000 acres of farmland at Musselroe Bay on Tasmania's north-east coast on Tuesday.”
From the ABC.

 

I imagine that small business is doing it hard, which is really sad. It would also, perhaps, depend on what sort of small business you are engaged in. Just about everybody buys stuff online these days, even the large Department stores are closing down some Branches or reducing their stock, whatever.
I also think that some people live way beyond their means ... they want it now and put it on the credit card. No wonder they have a great Christmas and spend the majority of the next year paying off "debt".
Also a lot of the problem with small business is the cost of rent or the space. I have seen perfectly good (great) fashion shops close, mostly due to the "overheads" ...
Australia prides itself as giving everybody a "go". I mean, how many Chinese run Nail Parlous do we need? What about the small bloke who just wants to make a living working for him/her/self? Rather than being a Plumber or an Electrician, that is.

 

I haven't seen this thank you Sally, I did know about the investigation, it has been ongoing for a couple of years. China have also been working hard in trying to get money back lost through laundering