How to know how effective we've been.

We can't know how effective our efforts to suppress the spread of the CCP virus has been until we get the final numbers for the common cold and flu for the year. We can't claim to have suppressed the spread of a more infectious virus if we did not suppress the spread of the less contagious viruses. The common cold and flu are our control group.

All of our efforts have been founded on a computer model that predicted that, if we did nothing, 2.2 million Americans would die from the CCP virus. The CDC now predicts that number to be closer to sixty thousand. I find it hard to believe that our mitigation efforts suppressed the CCP virus by 97%. I doubt that when the final numbers for the common cold and flu come in, they will be down by 97%.

One would think that deaths from the common cold/flu would have gone down no matter what we did simply because the CCP virus mostly takes its victims from the same demographic that the common cold and flu takes it victims.
We have only suppressed the more contagious virus to some extent less than the extent that we have suppressed the less contagious viruses, because we connot claim to have suppressed the more contagious virus more, or even as much, as we have suppressed the less contagious viruses.

30-60 thousand Americans die from the common cold/flu every year. If those numbers come in closer to 15-20 thousand, that could imply that our efforts may have saved over a million people; but if they turn out to be in the normal range, all of this was for nothing.

In my opinion, we would need to see a significant decrease in the annual cases of common viruses to justify decimating people's lives, and in many cases, life's work.

 

I would expect flu and cold to go down during this period, but it is not obvious to me that we can guarantee your measurables. Suppression of Covid has mainly taken forms like keeping it from getting to new groups and flattening the curve, methods that are attuned to the Covid virus but not to the cold. As such, it would at least take more detailed analysis to convince me that we could think of the common cold as a control group.

 

We are seeing an increasing amount of data that indicates we have seriously over-reacted.

We now know that only 5% of those who contract the virus show any symptoms, and only 3% of those with elevated symptoms may die. That knowledge changes the actual fatality rate from 3% to .015%, which is like a 200X reduction in probability.

This morning, data from 5700 hospitalizations reveals that 94% of those with symptoms elevated to the point of needing hospitalization already had 1 or more diseases besides the corona virus.

We have information that says the most likely place to contract the virus is being closed in with other people- as in quarantined at home. Information saying fresh air, sunshine and exercise are beneficial, reduce risk and increase resistance and immune strength.

Fear and panic cause people to make rush judgements, even stupid decisions- and shoot themselves in the foot, so to speak. I think we have allowed that to happen; the worst damage to the nation will be self-imposed.

 

..If thats the case, who's to blame for that?
If Obama was incharge and did this massive Handout because America got a case of the COLD...would you re-elect him?

 

There is zero science to show what we are doing is working.

 

If you contract the disease you will believe it's 100% contagious and dangerous. If you never get it, or no family member/friend gets it, it's a non-issue. Presently there are lots of numbers and data being reported and we are attacking it shotgun fashion. It will take years to digest all the data and determine how the USA fared during this time. Even then, like now, there will be differing opinions of how we handled the pandemic. Each individual should pay attention to all the reporting and decide for themselves how they want to react or protect themselves. Good hygiene is always a good practice all the time. Ever hear of the "flu season"? It's been happening all our lives. Every year some never have the flu, some contract it, some require hospitalization because of the flu, and some even die from the flu. And each year there are different strands of the seasonal flu. So is the Covid-19 much different? Time will tell.

 

This will not be remembered as a viral pandemic; it will be remembered as a panic pandemic.

 

How is that different from the common flu? The CCP virus is not going to kill anymore people, in the US, than the common flu kills every year.

If you contract the common flu, "you will believe that it is 100% contagious and dangerous."

 

Yes. I stay home, when i stop being contagious I return..When do you stop being contagious with Corona?

 

So you gonna re-elect the buffoon that started the panic pandemic?

 

When do you stop being contagious with flu?

The CCP virus has not risen to the level of epidemic in the US; epidemic has been defined down to what is already common

 

Iv never had the FLU. And IF i got it, you think id want it again?

 

You just keep diluting the value of everything you write by continually blaming literally everything on Trump. You had absolutely no problem with Trump until he started representing the people you hate. He wasn't even on your radar. Trump derangement syndrome is every bit as real as the CCP virus.

 

I never had a problem with him before, because before he never had the power to do this before.
And im not blaming him. Im blaming his handling of the situation.

We weathered swine FLU didnt we..Why is this any different?

 

We cannot claim to have suppressed the more contagious virus if we haven't suppressed the less contagious viruses.

 

I heard about an article today, people in Arizona claiming hospital staff are actors, and this is some kinda of democratic scheme or hoax...Is this true? Does this have anything to do with that? why you believe that this isnt a serious issue?

Either it isnt, and Trump really really really screwed the pooch.
Talk about lack of leadership..I bet he fired the guy who handled every other crisis we avoided. I mean, if he didnt..how does HE say we should proceed. Thats the guy to listen to. Or did Trump call him fake news as well?

Or B. It is as serious as they say, and they need to get back inside.

Take your pick.

 

That is NOT a surprise, as Trump didn't want to be able to use stats, or have any bloody idea, thus, NO TESTING. HAve asymptomatic spreaders all over. Don't do autopsies, just stack them in refrig trailers. It is ALL to cover the inept response of Trump, and generally his ideas of gov, from the light of day.

 

Show a link that proves this.

 

Why We Don’t Know the True Death Rate for Covid-19
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-death-rate.html

 

www.twitter.com
Straight from the source.

 

​

But none of that shows that "as Trump didn't want to be able to use stats, or have any bloody idea, thus, NO TESTING. HAve asymptomatic spreaders all over. Don't do autopsies, just stack them in refrig trailers. It is ALL to cover the inept response of Trump, and generally his ideas of gov, from the light of day. "

 

Proof is an inference. Truth is an implication, but proof is an inference. No one else can take your inferences for you.
One can imply and imply; they can even imply truth, but one cannot infer it as proof for another.
Furthermore, it isn't that ideas are really ever proved to us as it is that all of the other ideas that we have considered have been disproved. Whatever remains is what we are left to believe. Then that's tested, and so on, and so on.
Science is the process wherein doubt is removed by testing new and old ideas.
Religion is the process wherein doubt is suppressed by resistance to testing new and old ideas.
The scientific do their own testing. The religious say 'prove it to me'.

 

The problem is that this is not a cold, or a something with a known parameter, yet an incident of great magnitude. When you have very little data, decisions must be made with what you have; there is no other choice, so a lot is based on assumptions and probabilities- and a lot of errors will be made, no matter who makes the calls. That is the reason most of the world knew the earth was flat for thousands of years. No satellite views then, and from the position of the human eye- the horizon wasn't curved, it was obviously flat.

It's damned if you ignore, damned if you act, and wrong no matter what- depending on who is judging and what they choose to believe, what they want. It's the fear in people that is an equal part of the equation. Trump has been the target of criticism for not acting soon enough or strongly enough- and criticism for acting too early and too strongly.

I don't think this as a virus has no equal precedent in world history- but I do think the way in which our modern-day world is perceiving it and reacting to it is unprecedented. No model to base decisions on- no map, and of course everybody is an expert and gets pissed off because the president didn't make the same decisions they would have, despite his having access to a thousand times more expertise and data.
Look around the world, and it's not hard to see that we are not the only nation in this position, virtually all are. However, we are proving pretty durable. Our stock market should be much father down, but it just refuses to do so. People, at least some- are showing surprising resilience and determination. America is proving stronger than the left thinks is it, or wants it to be. Good for us.

Already, we see a plan from the left (AOC) to provide everyone (including immigrants, why not the whole world-) with a $2000 monthly income out of the deal. That is how the new left and new democrats think- that you can steal from "others" indefinitely and be supported without producing anything of value. IF Obama was in charge, this "hand-out" and ideas like hers would be the foundation for turning America into a socialist dependency, a nation with a massive increase in government power and control over people. He was laying the groundwork for that during his terms. He sold us out- and that made weak people happy, and strong people angry. History will remember him as the first black president; nothing else will be to his credit.

Some lacking in vision still fail to see that.

 

but he said: "Trump didn't want to be able to use stats,"
"NO TESTING."
"HAve asymptomatic spreaders all over."
"Don't do autopsies, just stack them in refrig trailers."
If he is going to make outrageous claims like that, he should have solid proof.