Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

USA Update - no good news to report​

So, with 1 hour left in my day, 3 hours left in the day at WorldOMeter and 7 hours left in the day on the East Coast of the USA, the USA has already reported +55,529 new C19 cases and with a number of states (10) left to report, a massive record has already been set in that a full 18 Units (17 states plus the US Military) have already reported more that +1,000 cases apiece. More details after the graphics:




So, when you consider that the USA has usually grown about 15,000 more cases once I go to sleep after midnight, in about one hour from now (yes, @gnoib, I am going to sleep soon zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!!!) and that California and Texas have not yet completely reported in, I suspect that once they are done, California will go over +11,000 (currently over +6,000) and Texas will land over +10,000 (currently under +4,000). Just between those two states, if they land where I suspect they will land, that's +11,000 more cases right there. And then there are still those ten other states to hear from.

Of the 17 states on the 1,000 list, 12 are from the Deep South. The only other Deep southern state, not on the list: Arkansas. Kentucky, Missouri and West Virginia are not technically southern states - they are border states and have always been considered so. Somehow, I sense that when they say "The South shall rise again", I don't think they meant this...

Also surprising, and in a very bad way, is that Ohio continues to stay on the 1,000 list, but this time, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois are also on the 1,000-list That's the bulk of the industrial Midwest, right there.

It would not surprise me if the USA lands between +73,000-75,000 today, when all is said and done. But it could also be as "small" as +69,000.

Also, right now, Florida is the only state recording more than +100 daily deaths, but when Texas and California have fully reported in, that will likely change.

Pray for the USA.

-Stat

 

So my mother had gone grocery shopping(you know, an essential activity) and there were two other women who were violating the store lines and then coughed in her face. Look, you jackasses, I don't like the situation anymore or any better than you do, but you're not making it better. You're making it worse. Wear the mask, abide by the guidelines and keep everyone else safe and you as well.

If people can't do that, then they should be shunned from entering any store or business that's open. We've got to have a firm line on this. That's how China was able to do it, and that's how we've got to do it now.

(I wasn't refering to you of course Stat, but to the deniers who've visited this thread and in general, the time for complacency is over.)

 

My opinion on the US having the best and brightest in the world has changed pretty dramatically in the last 16 weeks.

We may have some of them, but a large percentage of us have the mental capacity of a 10-year old in a 3rd world country.

But, muh freedom.

Oy, sigh. The Surgeon General is basically begging people to be responsible. The problem is we can't fix stupid, and the most dumb are the people who make up their minds and stick to it no matter what new information comes along.

 

Funny thing about freedom: It's over when you die. That's basically understood as a Libertarian principle, your right to liberty ends when it endangers mine. I mentioned this before about my mother, but she's a high-risk category type of person and having already buried my grandmother(not really, I don't know where her body is or whether there will be a funeral at all, rather sad actually) the last thing I want to do is bury my mother, all in the span of the same year.

If I had been shopping with her, I would've given those ladies some choice words to say the least lol.

 

Penner.

 

The truly stupid are the ones, that do not understand that science evolves.

 

Just chatted with an idiot in another thread - the thing about wearing a mask is like preventing mosquitoes with a chain-link fence. I just... can't.

 

Once upon a time people in the US were interested in science. It got replaced by hearsay, CTs and I read it in social media.
Science is seen as a hoax, or that some deep state or what ever is trying to manipulate us.
If you have followed the witch hunt against Fauci, its about what he said in January, February, when we had very little understanding about the virus and how to deal with it.
Science is a bout learning, every minute, every hour, day and month.
Science is about a evolution of knowledge

Me thinks with the internet stupidity became a drug.

 

Once upon a time people in the US were interested in science. It got replaced by hearsay, CTs and I read it in social media.
Science is seen as a hoax, or that some deep state or what ever is trying to manipulate us.
If you have followed the witch hunt against Fauci, its about what he said in January, February, when we had very little understanding about the virus and how to deal with it.
Science is a bout learning, every minute, every hour, day and month.
Science is about a evolution of knowledge

Me thinks with the internet stupidity became a drug.

 

ROFL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ????????????

It is :


GROEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEOEHL.

A cattle prod would work rather well, too.
Between the legs.

Groeoeoeoeoeoeoehl

 

We can't fix stupid, so we are stuck. As my husband and I have no desire to end up with permanent brain, lung or heart damage, we'll just stay home. At least we're comfy, here, but I do feel bad for those that are not. They are getting a hard lesson on how little their fellow citizens care about them.


Here's the level of depth the deniers have about covid.

 

Question for today.
Can we beat down the hotspots without new ones popping up?

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER

There were some other analyses on 2020-07-015 between the last worldwide analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-07-014, posted 2020-07-015, 13:06 GMT +2, #11253.
India‘s daily C19-caseload triples in one month‘s time, posted 2020-07-015, 20:09 GMT +2, #11263.
India update no. 2 for today, posted 2020-07-015, 21:54 GMT +2, #11273.
18 US-Units report more than +1,000 C19 daily cases, posted 2020-07-015, 23:21 GMT +2, #11276.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Wednesday, 2020-07-015 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

֍*** 13,683,796 ***֍
+235,297 new C19 cases over the day before, second highest case-load to-date.
There are 142 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 74 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 586,195 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,846 of them were on this day.
Worldwide Rolling 7-day average: +218,313 new C19 cases and +5,000 deaths per day.
1,261 Brazilian, 997 US-American, 836 Mexican, 614 Indian and 199 Iranian deaths were recorded on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Less text... more meaning. You can see the rolling averages for yourself: the world has been at a rolling average of at least +200,000 new C19 cases every day for 7 days in a row. Tendency: rising.

So, we just did on a Wednesday what we did on a Friday last week, namely, to jump over +230,000 C19 cases worldwide.

There is a 1,060 case discrepancy and a 90 death discrepancy between my excel table and WorldOMeter. Click on the disclaimer at the top of this analysis, if you wish.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, take a look, if you like. I may have to revise this extrapolation upward...

The number of daily deaths (5,846) for the day currently being analysed is considerably over the 4 Wednesdays before before The daily deaths 7-day rolling average rose nominally every day since 2020-07-002. But on 2020-07-014, it receded by 9 average deaths, probably statistically insignificant, but still noteworthy. It rose again on 2020-07-015.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +450 C19 cases and above):
​

142-74-38-22-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 142 nations in the "thousand club", with Uruguay and Georgia having crossed over the 1,000-line on 2020-07-015.

Of those 140, 74 nations are now in the "10,000 club".

Of those 71 nations, 38 are now in the "50,000 club", with Bolivia having crossed over the 50,000-lline on 2020-07-015. Panama, Dominican Republic, Portugal & Singapore are next up to cross over that line.

22 of those 37 nations are at at 100,000 or more. Both Egypt and Iraq have sprung over stillstand China, Indonesia will be next, all three working their way towards the 100,000-line,

Of those 22, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil. Very likely, India will join this rubrik today. I did two India analyses yesterday. If India hits +30,000 C19 cases today (it very likely will do that), then it will cross over the 1,000,000 line.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

80-39-24-4​

80 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 70.

39 countries had +500 or more cases. The day before, it was 35.

24 countries had +1,000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 22.

And finally, 4 nations had over +10,000 new cases: USA, Brasil, India & South Africa. The day before, it was also 4. This is the ninth time that South Africa has gone over the +10,000-line, non-consecutively.

One 2020-07-015, the USA accumulated" +71,670 new C19 cases, the second highest USA daily haul to-day and far outstripping any other nation on Earth, including Brasil, which last month often surpassed the USA in daily cases and still surpasses the USA in daily deaths.

There can just be no doubt about it - in some corners of the world, with North, Middle and South America leading, C19 is advancing very quickly. But there are also signs that the Middle-East may become a true hotspot for COVID-19. Soon, I will be doing a series on the Middle East.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

89-40-21-11-1​

There are 89 nations with 100 total deaths or more, with both Albania & Venezuela crossing over the 100-line on 2020-07-015.

Of those 87, 40 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. That is 1/5 of all nations on Earth.

Of those 40, 21 have over +5,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

Of those 21, there are now 11 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 11, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

Currently at 140,140 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 23.90% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 23.76%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 75,523 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average (which, this time, is also the weekly average) is: +1,067. On 2020-06-024, Brasil ended the day with 53,874 deaths, so it has suffered +21,649 deaths since then. It is on track to reach 100,000 deaths right on or just after 2020-08-015, in one month.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:​

You can see the top 10 nations, all over +100 daily deaths, for yourself, highighted in the screenshot above.

10 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 10 the day before). 6 of those 10 countries are from the Americas.

If you've been watching the daily death statistics for a while, you will notice a pedulum-effect, almost always between 9 and 11 nations per day with over +100 deaths, sometimes with 1 or 2 over +1,000.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

34 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece and of them, with Phillipines and Singapore going over the 1,000,000 test-mark on 2020-07-014. 5 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK and India.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. Then again, this text has been here for more than 3 weeks and China has released: nothing. Sooooo.....

To date: the USA has performed 44.8 million tests (800,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 23.8 million tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has now performed 4.6 million such tests.

Facit: on 2020-07-015, the world went from 13.47 million total C19 cases, jumping over 13.5 and 13.6 million to land at 13.68 (13.7) million cases.

I think we can all see where this is going.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Wednesday, 2020-07-015 (EOD = GMT +0):

***3,616,747***
+71,670 new COVID-19 cases, just under the +71,787 record to-date.
In a row (+ or more): 21 days of +40,000, 10 days of +50,000, 8 days of +60,000-71,000.
There are now 140,140 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 997 of them were recorded on this day
Three states reported over +100 C19 deaths once again, not a positive development.
USA rolling 7 day average = 65,402 new infections & 754 deaths per day.
1,645,962 people have recovered, 1,803,645 are still sick, 16,459 of them are in critical condition.
The recovered statistic is improving: margin = -5.11% vs. active cases (was: -5.80%).
We are one week away from parity in the recovered/still sick statistic.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We started this week on 2020-07-013 with over +65,000 new C19 cases, +7,000 more cases than the Monday before and more than 3 times as many cases than four Mondays before. This was the second highest daily "haul" to-date, behind the (until now) record-crushing +71,787 last Friday. And this is how we started the week. On 2020-07-014, however, we slightly exceeded the Monday haul, making Tuesday now the second largest daily C19 haul. And on Wednesday, we once again had the second highest haul, once again going over +70,000 to +71,670, just 117 shy of the record. The difference is that the peak happened on last Friday and we are only talking about Wednesday right now, so there is a chance that we will go far over +75,000 by Friday. Wait and see.

You can see that the rolling average currently shows +65,402 cases a day, which means advancing 1,000,000 cases in just over 15 days each time, assuming we maintain the current rate. You can see that very likely, in the next 14 days, we will indeed cross over the 4-million barrier, possibly sooner than that if the rate of daily infections increases.

The decision by the Trump administration to order hospitals across the land to send their COVID-19 data first to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) instead of directly to the CDC is more than controversial and stinks to high heaven. I would not be surprised to see the real numbers begin to precipitiously drop with bullshit justifications like "well, we located so and so many cases where the individual actually died of multiple comorbidities and so we have ascertained that COVID-19 was not the main cause of death and therefore we dispute the claim of the Dr. who signed the death certificate" or "since we dispute the accuracy of tests from so and so testmaker and our statistics prove that that 33% of their cases who false negatives, we are removing 33% of all cases processed by so and so testmaker". Actually, these are things that the CDC would have done to check things, but not on a scale like this and certainly not to brazenly lie to the American people, which is surely what is about to happen. I am going to go out on a limb here and say that many states are going to be in uproar about a decision that is so nakedly partisan and designed to deceive, and we ALL know why. Many states will simply keep sending their data directly to the CDC at the same time they send it to HHS.

The actual number of daily deaths reported on this day, +997, reflects a stark rise in Wednesday deaths over the 4 Wednesdays before.

The real concern (and I have been writing this for two weeks now) here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a measureable, uncomfortable spike in deaths will start in the next 3-10 days, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, AZ, TX, CA and GA. Why in this time-frame? Because daily deaths are a lagging indicator. We are already seeing nominal evidence of this right now, but it's not held long enough to classify it as a trend. However, should these numbers continue to rise to the end of July, 2020, then I would say that we most definitely are having a trend. Three of the states mentioned above just reported more than +100 deaths apiece on both 2020-07-014 and 2020-07-015. I will leave it up to you, the reader, to decide if a jump to +154 deaths in a state is uncomfortable or not, but it sure as hell is measurable. That being said, these numbers are still not at the catastrophic level of the numbers we once saw out of NY and NJ, occasionally out of MA, IL and MI, back in March and April. So, I am willing to wait a number of days yet before saying for sure that the upward trend in deaths is for sure. Of course, this depends on whether the numbers will be reliable of if HHS is going to start lying, day in and day out. Let's not forget why Alex Azar, who has ZERO medical experience, got his job in the first place. He was a pharmaceutical industry lobbyist and is also a lawyer, one who helped Jeffrey Epstein get off scot-free in Florida in the early 2000s.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

57: 56-47-44-20-10​

56 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 50 of those 56 Units are US States. However, at 349 and the only Unit under the 1,000-line, the Pacific Territories (Guam / Northern Mariana Islands) may take a while to get there.

47 out of 57 UNITS have over 5,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 42 of those 47 Units are US States.

44 out of 57 UNITS have more than +10,000 cases. 40 of those 44 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Puerto Rico Veterans Affairs and the US Military. US Federal Prisons is probably up next to cross over the 10,000-line.

20 out of 57 UNITS have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 20 of them are states.

And finally, 10 of all 57 Units have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 10 of them are states.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:

​

57: 57-44-18-2​

57 of 57 Units reported at least one new case. 50 of those 57 were states. It's rarely a day when all 57 report cases, but 2020-07-015 was such a day.

44 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 40 of those 44 Units were states. The non-states were: Veterans Affairs, Puerto Rico, US Military & Federal Prisons.

A record smashing 18 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, 17 of them being states, the US Military being the non-state. I noted this late last night my time, here: 18 US-Units report more than +1,000 C19 daily cases, posted 2020-07-015, 23:21 GMT +2, #11276

2 of those states reported more than +10,000 new cases. Texas led with +12,235 new C19 cases, followed by Florida with +10,181, followed California (just under +10,000) and then the rest from Arizona (somewhat under +4,000) on down to Pennsylvania (+1,000). Again, Ohio is on the 1,000-list. But three other states from the industrial Midwest were also on the list: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois. 12 of the 17 states are from the Deep South. The ONLY state from the Deep South not on the 1,000 list was: Arkansas. Kentucky, West Virgina and Missouri are NOT deep Southern States, but rather, border states. Also, only a certain part of Pennsylvania belongs to the industrial Midwest, it is actually classified as an ACELA state and therefore, part of the Northeast. But Pennsylvania, which is often described as "the East Coast on the western and eastern borders and, but Alabama in the middle", is kind of hard to pin down, anyway.

But it's not just those 18 Units. The next 11 states all recorded between +500 and +1,000 new C19 cases, among them, the first epicenter: New York (with +999, literally knocking on the door to 1,000). Right below New York: Kansas (+856). Yes, Kansas is now that high up on the list.

And do not be fooled by low case numbers and therefore, low totals out of any state that has, 4 1/5 months after the catastrophe began, tested less than 150,000 people in their state. Out of a nation of 331 million, to have tested that little, when we all know that C19 is not literally everywhere, is just plain old bullshit.

Here are the states with less than 150,000 total tests completed:



That's 14 Units: 10 states plus DC, the Pacific Territories, the Federal Prison System (pop.2.6 million prisoners) and the Navajo Nation.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

57: 47-21-3​

47 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 43 of them are US States. The non-states: Puerto Rico, Veterans Affairs, US Military, Federal Prisons.

21 of 57 Units reported deaths in double digits or more, from +10 to +154. 20 of those 21 of those Units are US States. The non-states: Puerto Rico, Veterans Affairs, US Military, Federal Prisons.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 3 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths: Texas, Florida and California, all three between +112 and +154 daily deaths. Texas's death toll set a state record.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 47-25-7-2
​

47 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 43 of those 47 Units are US States. At 99 and 88 total deaths respectively, West Virginia, and North Dakota will soon cross over that marker. The 4 non-states with over 100 deaths: DC, Puerto Rico, Veterans Affairs and the Navajo Nation.

25 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 24 of those 25 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. Currently at 998 and 987 deaths, respectively, South Carolina & Rhode Island are approaching +1,000-death line. I though South Carolina was going to cross over the 1,000-line on 2020-07-015, making it the 25th state / 26th Unit to do so. Instead, it will do it today, 2020-07-016.

7 of 57 Units now have a total of more than +5,000 COVID-19 deaths. All 7 of them are states.

Out of all 57 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 140,140 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between 136,400-151,400:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of all of McALLEN or almost all of DAYTON (my hometown), never to get the one or the otherback again. Think about that.

Dayton alert: I was born close to and raised even closer to Dayton, OH, so when the death toll reaches or slightly exceeds the population of Dayton, please light a candle for me.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

Right now, we are 2,445 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us right about 3.5 days ahead of the projection. This value is higher than the corresponding number from the corresponding weekday in June, shortly after the extrapolation began (2020-06-017, 1,846 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation at that time).

-Stat

 

Probably not. Because C19 is now quite literally everywhere and the USA ****ed up when it really counted, it's now going to be a constant game of whack-a-mole.

 

BRAZIL IS POISED TO GO OVER 2,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES TODAY, 2020-07-016
and concurrently,
INDIA IS POISED TO GO OVER 1,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES TODAY, 2020-07-016​

This is more than likely to happen today. Here both Excel-tables:



Yesterday, 2020-07-015, Brazil ended the day with 1,970,909 confirmed C19 cases, -29,091 away from the 2-million mark. This morning, Brazil has already reported another +1,163 new cases, bringing it's total to 1,972,072, which puts it currently -27,928 away from the 2 million mark. You can see from the Excel table how many new cases Brazil had on 3 Thursdays before this one, so it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Brazil will easily sail over the 2-million mark today.

On to India:



Yesterday, 2020-07-015, India ended the day with 970,169 confirmed C19 cases, -29,831 away from the 2-million mark. Kind of amazing that both Brazil and India were almost the same number of cases away from the next million mark at the same time.

This morning, India has already reported another +4,568 new cases, bringing its total to 974,737, puting it currently -25,263 away from the 2 million mark. You can see from the Excel table how many new cases Brazil had 3 Thursday before this one, they were considerably less than yesterday. But if you look starting every day from 2020-06-028, you see for the most part a straight line upward from +18,726 on the day that India broke over the 500,000 mark to +32,682 yesterday. So, even if India were to backpedal 3,000 cases today and come in with less cases on one of the two very heaviest days of the week, it would still be enough to bring the world's second most populated nation over the 1,000,000-mark. My original extrapolation saw 2020-07-018 as the 1-million day for India, but then it really shot up in the case numbers, from +25,790 on the day I wrote the extrapolation, to over +32,000 yesterday. That's a measurable jump.

I'm convinced that both countries will cross over the line today, putting India at 1 milion, Brazil at 2 million and the USA close to 3.7 million and climbing quickly. Today will be historic, in a horrifying way.

-Stat

 

The Darwin Award for today goes to The Great State of Georgia and its Governor

5:42 a.m..: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp bans local mask rules
Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp issued an executive order Wednesday night, which outright banned cities and counties in the state from issuing mask orders to help stop the spread of COVID-19.

The move, despite neighboring states like Alabama requiring masks in public, voided mask mandates in 15 local jurisdictions in the Peach State where they had been implemented.


Go Bunker Boys, Go Bunker Boys.

Peachy

 

Guys a real genius, eh?

 

The TxDSHS Covid-19 Dashboard updated at 4:00PM CST yesterday. 110 deaths in Texas in the prior 24 hours.

 

On Thursday, 2020-07-016, the great state of Florida has reported +13,965 new COVID-19 cases and +145 new deaths. Florida, which just passed over the 300,000 case mark yesterday, now stands and 315,775 total C19 cases to date, rank 3, behind California (355,285) and New York (430,277).

Back-of-the-Envelope:​

If we take an average of just +10,500 daily new cases for Florida compared to New York's average of +700 cases (maximum), that puts Florida ahead of New York by at least +9,800 new cases per day. So, simple, back-of-the-envelope-math, here we come:

Current margin between NY and FL: NY +114,502. 114,502 / 9,800 = 11.7 days. So, let's say 12 days. At a moderate pace, without picking up too many more daily cases, Florida should surpass NY around 2020-07-028.

California will also surpass NY and is already closer to NY (margin, NY to CA = +74,992). California is averaging somewhat less daily cases than Florida, I estimate, around +8,000 on the average (I have not calculated it out yet). That puts California at +7,300 over New York in + daily cases. 74,992 / 7,300 = 10.3 days. Let's say 11 days. This means that California will probably pass NY on 2020-07-027, Florida will pass NY the next day, and within 2 days later, Florida will also pass California. By August 15th, both will be well past 550,000 cases apiece.

When today is over, Texas will probably land so that it has 6,000 less total cases than Florida (I'm expecting TX to record at least +10,000 new C19 cases today). It's daily average was a little less than California, but has picked up considerably. So, let's estimate TX at +9,000 on the average (call it a gut feeling on my part), which would mean that TX is hauling about 8,300 more daily cases in than New York. Current NY-TX margin = 430,277-298,007= +132,270. 132,270 / 8,300 = 15.9 days. so let's say 16 days. This means that TX will probably surpass NY on 2020-08-001. As of this point in time, those three states are likely to dominate the field for a long time, until the virus is under control.

I want to point out that this kind of back-of-the-envelope math is deliberately a little bit inaccurate, realizing that the most important variable, namely, the number of +daily cases, can accelerate or slow down without much notice, so the caveat here, as always, is: "if present conditions remain as they are"....

-Stat

 

On 2020-07-016, the great state of Arizona has reported +3,259 new C19 cases and +58 deaths. To the best of my memory, AZ's peak has been around +4,400 cases, but it has been in the low +3,000 range a lot, so I can see Arizona advancing 100,000 new infections every 27-30 days. Today's daily deaths is lower than the last days, surely welcome news.

 

On 2020-07-016, the great state of Alabama has reported +1,933 new C19 cases and +17 deaths. I need to research this, but I do think that this is the highest daily case-load for Alabama until now, but the number of deaths is better than it has been in the last week.

 

That would be true if the summer showed a drop off in infections.
Especially in places like Fl and Tx. But the opposite is happening.

 

The day is just begining in the USA, only 12 states (plus the Territories and Veterans Affairs, making for 15 Units) have reported in and only one of those states is a large state, and already, the USA is just at about 300 deaths:



There is a very high possibility that the USA could go over +1,000 deaths today. Let's hope that this does not happen.

 

Don't pray for the USA. Get us a competent president. One who takes pandemics seriously.