Your Electoral College Predictions

So he purposely left incriminating evidence to a computer shop ran by a legally blind man who said he for sure saw Hunter Biden drop it off?

LOL, ok.

By the way, what has the FBI said about this groundbreaking scandal?

 

I never said Hunter Biden was one of the brightest bulbs in the fixture and we have the signed work order,

Have the Biden's denied it is Hunters computer and the veracity of the emails? The FBI does not comment on ongoing investigations unless Comey is in charge or Strozck and Page are there to leak it.

 

Do you know the meaning of the word "alleged?"

Has anyone verified this "alleged" signature who didn't write scripts for the Hannity Show or who isn't Rudy?

 

Have the Biden's denied it? The head of our intelligence says no evidence Russian involvement. Schiff lied again.

 

The election is November 8th this year

 

Have the Biden's been charged of any crime? Has the head of our intelligence verified that the signature is indeed Hunter Biden's?

 

Oh good grief is that really the best comeback you got? It's real simple the burden is on them to deny and to do so emphatically and unequivocally to the voters and the sooner the better as votes are being cast. And if as it is appearing more and more that Joe Biden was enriching himself and his family selling access and influence there may be a lot of early voters who may have a change of heart. What then?

 

Ah, no. We live in a Country where you are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. The burden of proof is on the accuser, not the accused. Why do you want to bypass the Constitution because of your feeeeeelings?

 

We will know the results in Florida sooner than in 2016 because of the shift in the southeast part of the state.

 

Like when the House bypassed providing evidence for an Impeachment trial? That was a situation where the Constitution was actually bypassed.

What the Biden's did was a breach of the U.S. Codes, which is based on legislative statutes outlining what is illegal.

You really need to brush up on your understanding of how this country works. But I suspect it would help if you lived here in the first place.

 

Wow, you're really calling a close race. I don't think the electoral vote will be close, though I'm a bit concerned about some potentially very close states (FL, GA, NC, PA, WI, OH, IA, maybe AZ). This made me notice that you put all the toss ups into the, "likely," category (both Dem & Repub); I, on the other hand, marked almost all as, "leaning," except Texas for Trump, & Michigan and Nevada for Biden.

I'm describing all this to you because, only having a lousy cell phone, I was able to copy the numbers but not the map image. In fact, the number for Trump should be 1 point higher but, no matter how many times or how hard I hit it, I could not get the little circle for 1 of Maine's electors to give me the change-choices.

335 Biden
Toss Ups
1
Trump 202
144 61 Dem* 130 1 72 67 GOP 63
270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win (Recent Race Changes)
Pre-Fill Map:RCP RatingsNo Toss Up

So, of those close calls (above), I gave 3 of the 4 states whose votes for Trump were their 1st time not going w/ the Democrat in 30 years-- MI, Wl, & PA-- to Biden (the other, Iowa, I left in Trump's column). If Biden just re-takes these 3, & nothing else changes from Hillary's results, he wins.

But I also gave Biden the edge in AZ, GA, & FL. Though also close, I assigned Trump as the victor in NC, & OH (+ TX, as I already mentioned). To tell you the truth, I'm not sure which way NV & MN went in 2016, but I think Biden will claim those, as well.

 

@Distraff
I wanted to add, to my post, above--

-- that even if the polls are as far off this time as in 2016, what I just delineated, WOULD HAPPEN (though Wisconsin would be a squeaker). If you want to investigate more, here's a link.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden

 

Yawn. Wake me when you have solid evidence other than the word of Rudy and a Hannity script writer.

 

Here's my favorite bit of Florida analysis, courtesy of https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-surprise-victory-tom-del-beccaro

I suspect you would have called anyone who predicted, on the eve of the 2016 election, that President Trump would win 300 EC votes "delusional" too.

 

And in interest of the thread topic, here is my current best guess:



President Trump wins re-election with exactly 300 electoral college votes

 

Nah...

More like This:



I guess the whole country (and world) will find out together, and everybody can compare maps when the Electoral College Votes.

 

No big deal, I guess, but I found it kind of funny that, just a few posts back, I came out w/ the same final EC #s as you, but through a different combination of states (I gave NC's 15 + 1 in ME to Trump, but GA's 16 to Biden (post #36).

 

Problem is that democrats are less likely to go out because of covid. Democrats also tend to have less active voters who are less likely to vote if voting is less convenient. Additionally, Republicans are far more enthusiastic about Trump than Democrats are about Biden. Many people will vote for Trump but tell everyone else that they are not. And many democrats who claim they will vote to a pollster won't actually do the deed. However, early voting does show Biden ahead, but that is only a small part of the final result, but I could be wrong.

Since Biden is leading by razor thin margins in AZ, GA, OH, NC, and FL in the polls, I'm assuming the factors above will push these into the Trump column.

Below is an updated map.

 

We do not hold elections on Sundays here in the USA. If you wish to attempt voting on Nov 8th, then by all means go for it...

 

The most obvious problem, is with your analysis, in that you have no way of knowing the current vote tallies, since, for the majority of the ballots thus far cast, the only thing that might be known is the PARTY AFFILIATION of those whose votes have so far been counted. If we ASSUME that ALL Republican ballots are for Trump & all Democratic votes are for Biden, then you definitely have a point. However, this year, I think that non-elected Republicans have shown much less shyness about being against Trump (you've heard of The Lincoln Project, no doubt), & even about voting Democratic; I couldn't even list all of the high-profile people, from ex-members of Trump's administration, including Nat'l Security Advisor, to high-ranking military officers (who are both staunchly-Republican as well as strongly averse, normally, to publicly making their views known), not to mention a former head of the RNC (Republican National Committee), who have all stated they will be voting for Biden & have encouraged others to do the same. So I guess part of the actual vote count, both ultimately & for the theoretical present, will come down to how much of the general membership of the Republican Party take their example from those top officials who are denouncing Trump, vs those emulating their Republican Congressional representation. It might turn out, this time, that as many Republicans claiming to be supporting Trump will secretly be voting Biden, as the reverse.

But I have another question for you, that I think is a BIGGER CONSIDERATION. To get your hypothetical idea of how much of a lead Biden currently enjoys, by what (truly applicable) model could you have possibly used to calculate the choices of INDEPENDENT VOTERS? And thirdly, what makes you believe either that A) the current trend in the voting won't CONTINUE throughout the mail-in voting or that B) the mail-in, and early-voting totals that, "are only a small part of the final result (at this very early stage)," won't end up being, after all is said & done, a significant part of the total vote?

In epilogue, my numbers (335 - 203) had already given NC & OH to Trump, but if we throw in FL & GA-- both of which Biden leads in polling but which I'd stipulated I thought would be close-- we get 290 - 248. Those numbers seem to me an already, rather Trump-friendly interpretation. I see no reason to assume Arizona will be in Trump's column since, not only does Biden lead in polling but, even assuming these polls are as far off as they were w/ Clinton, Biden would still be ahead.

While there might be other possible surprises-- because of the potential for so many tight races, which I intended to be seen as my primary concern: because of the difficulty, under these circumstances, of getting a result that won't be controversial w/ a large part of the population-- I thought your thread was about our best guesses of the most likely outcome, not the best-case scenario for Donald Trump.

 

The best case scenario for Trump is that he wins the election again similar to 2016. I have something in the middle where he actually loses. You didn't address the impact of covid on voting. Trump supports are far more likely than Biden supporters to want to vote in person. Vote by mail options are limited.

 

In what way(s) are voting by mail options limited? My impression is that in most states-- or at least in most swing states, which is what we're centering our discussion on-- it has been made very easy to vote by mail, this particular, unusual cycle. I didn't feel I NEEDED to add that to my argument but, OK: the # of Democratic voters--though those AREN'T Biden's ONLY voters-- who typically don't vote w/ the same devotion as Republicans, WILL BE RENDERED OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE BECAUSE OF THE SPECIAL ALLOWANCES MADE FOR VOTING BY MAIL, THIS ELECTION. And have you noted the length of the voting lines, in the first days of early voting in places like Wisconsin? Betting on Democratic voter apathy, especially when all it takes this year is to fill out a ballot at home, at one's convenience, seems FAR less than a given, this time around.

It seems you are treating this election like, "normal times." Did you take into account, for example, all the Democratic voters who often see it as too much trouble to squeeze voting into their busy work day, who are NO LONGER WORKING? How else do you imagine the Black Lives Matter protests could have lasted as long as they did, at at such a high level of participation? While I know every election, somebody thinks the usual rules don't apply, & that they are usually wrong, don't let that make you blind to clearly historic events occuring around you.

 

hahahahaha you believe the fake polls hahahahaha

 

That's pretty much what I am thinking, although we might have to wait until the next day.

This is one weird election.

 

I wish to amend this map of mine slightly...... Change New Hampshire from blue to red, and that is my official map for the 2020 election, of which I am now posting below...



My official prediction is that Trump wins, 326-212 in a complete LANDSLIDE... You can pretty much take that to the bank...

Early voting numbers are looking VERY well for Trump in many key swing States. Trump 100% has Florida in the bag, no doubt about it, as Dems are currently nowhere near the early voting numbers that they need in order to have a shot at it (and those numbers keep fading further as we speak... It also appears that the Hispanics in Miami-Dade are strongly supporting President Trump) ... North Carolina is currently on pace to see Trump win it by about 3.5 - 4 points, as he did last time... The other bad news for Democrats is that the youth vote appears to be down significantly from 2016, and the black vote also appears to be down (additionally, Trump is going to significantly increase his share of that black vote (I expect Trump to receive about 12-16% black support, up from 8%, which is a double whammy for Dems).

Every way I look at it, Dems are royally ****ed in this election, and are currently just hoping to retain their control over the House (of which I think that they will still retain control over, but who knows) ... Biden recently spent time campaigning in DELAWARE for goodness sake... Not the optics of someone who is "strongly leading most everywhere"...

Trump is going to win Florida by a significant margin, and that "rightward shift" should translate across the other Eastern & Midwestern swing States that Trump won in 2016, and I think that this shift will barely push Minnesota over the edge for the GOP... Same with Nevada and New Hampshire... I think Trump wins Arizona by a few points as well (3-4 points??) ...

326-212... LANDSLIDE... brace yourselves, Dems... Get your shrink ready on speed dial; it's gonna be a PAINFUL election night for y'all...