Your Electoral College Predictions

My wife asked me to predict a winner the other day.
I started as always with a prediction of Civil War. Trump would win because he controls the military until January 20, plus liberals don't have guns.
She persisted, so I tried to bore her with the social dynamics of the swing states, but at last she forced me to the limit.
Trump gains Maine and New Hampshire, but Biden takes Pennsylvania and Michigan, then, in a disputed recount Ohio. I couldn't get the maps to work so I went to the 2016 map and counted:
Biden 279 Trump 259.

 

Yeah right...

We shall see what we shall see...

 

Now...THAT is Laughable...

Trump's Miracle Scenario would be Biden 279/Trump 259..

That said, I had to save this "map"...

Because there is ZERO chance of that happening. NONE.

In fact, if you are predicting THAT, you might as well be predicting a 50-State Sweep...

If one Dreams..they should DREAM BIG...

 

You won't be laughing post-election night...

 

Your map has absolutely 0.00% of happening. But it's adorable none the less.

Maybe Trump wins, but not the way you think he wins. LOL

 

I'm holding you to this.

Trump is definitely going to win, and will win by A LOT...

 

This election seems unique in one aspect: both sides have many supporters who are brimming with confidence that their guy is going to win. In the past, even if one side wanted their guy to win, there was at least some common ground on who was likely to win. That seems to have gone away now.

Obviously, whoever wins, roughly half the country will be disappointed, but also, and unique to this election, a significant portion of the losing side's supporters are going to be utterly shocked that it happened.

 

I guess we shall see. I'll be here election night. Will you?

 

Not on election night, but I will be here the very next morning. I will be laughing at the liberals such as yourself who believe in fake polls and believe what the smear merchant fake media tells you...

Trump wins 326-212. (but definitely with no less than 300 EC votes). Get your shrink ready on speed dial; it's gonna be rough for Dems...

 

I’ve got Ohio State in the Big Ten, Clemson in ACC, Alabama in SEC...

Oh! That’s right. Electoral College.

Ah, the country needs a Goldwater-like result. The 1964 cycle for you young folks. It just occurred to me Goldwater would be consider a lefty these days.

The Party can’t survive featuring it’s lunatic fringe.

I’ll take the over on a 348 over/under for Biden.

 

LOL, ok.

 

I predict Biden will win with (at least) 289 electoral votes. This assumes Trump wins Florida.

Let me guess...you've never studied probability and statistics, right?

 

This prediction is not going to age well...

I have, actually.

 

Statistics actually rings a bell.... isn't that where they teach that there are lies, damn lies and statistics?

PS Fake news media - 97% negative coverage of Trump, lies, distortions, suppression of information, censorship....but their polls are honest and accurate....Right

 

No. You're referring to the practice of using statistics to push a point of view. In such cases, factual statistics are presented, but they aren't analyzing all factors in a complex topic.

 

Because lying fake news which is all in for Biden would never use statistics to push a point of view. Never, I am telling you LOL

 

you predict Trump wins Wisconsin and PA?

good luck with that

 

We'll see whose prediction ends up being most accurate.

Good. Then you should understand such terms as "confidence intervals" and "weighting". A poll based on erroneous assumptions is not "fake", it was in error.

In 2016, polls failed to apply weighting based on education level, so they failed to account for Trump's appeal to the lesser educated. This erroneous assumption led to results that were in error. That said, the actual results were within the margin of error in the polling. 2020 polling is not repeating that error. There may be new errors of course, but those past results still give us good reason to trust that the results will again be within that margin of error. Consequently, I feel pretty good about my prediction- which is based on my analysis of the polls.

What's your prediction based on? What makes you think Trump will win Pennsylvania and Michigan?

 

They might very well do that, but publishing presidential polling results is not an instance of cherry picking vague statistics to push a general point of view. They're just reporting the results of polling performed by independent organizations.

Of course, the polls may be getting something wrong - such as incorrectly weighting by education level (the mistake made in 2016). But that doesn't make them "fake".

 

These "independent" organizations are commissioned by fake news media, they are paid top bucks by fake news media, fake news media does not pay these "independent" polling organizations astronomical sums of money to have them contradict their anti-Trump narrative. These "independent polling organizations" know very well what kind of polling result is expected from them if they want the cashflow to continue, they don't even need to be told.

PS lest we forget that only the accuracy of the final poll is verified by the actual vote, they can manipulate their non-final votes to their heart's content.

PS2 - oversampling NJ conservatives and undersampling PA conservatives will do the trick of completely skewing the poll while making it appear statistically valid. Not really rocket science.

 

Well you think Biden is going to win everything and there will be peace on earth and goodwill toward all men.

 

1. The margin of error explanation would make sense if polls erred in both directions, the overwhelming majority of the polls were off 2-4% in Hillary's favor which is indicative of flawed methodology, statistical manipulation or both.
And that's national polls. State polls were a disaster, the RCP averages in Wisconsin and Minnesota were off by whopping 7-9%.
And they did not learn their lesson, checkout the the 2018 Florida governor and senate races, virtually all of the polls were off by 5-7%
And they have zero credibility too, it's possible they err, it's possible they lie, it's very unlikely they are accurate.

2.A huge republican advantage in new voter registration in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida makes us think Trump will win there. Lest we forget enthusiasm, lest we forget Trump's shy vote that does exist.

 

when did i say that?

you seem to be projecting

 

The Pollsters learned from their mistakes in 2016, and it WON'T happen again in 2020.

Anybody hanging their hat on "But...2016...But the polls were Wrong...But...Hillary" is in for a major disappointment.