The Clock is Ticking on the GOP's Aging Grasp on Power

The changes will come when unsustainable spending policies reach a tipping point. CA will likely be the first to hit the wall.

I make sure my kids know that they are responsible for their own expenses. My oldest daughter was a super left liberal through college. 1 year on her own and she voted for Trump.

The fewer policies the better. I want less government. Protecting the second amendment is one policy that will bring people in. Many of my liberal friends are buying firearms and experiencing the gun laws they once supported for the first time.

 

There could be something to this . . . if it weren't for the fact that the GOP also supports unsustainable spending . . . sometimes even more so, especially in the case of Trump.

 

we know thought, but the Republican Party has not seen it yet

 

Very true. That spending keeps them in power. Once it hits the end, the same cuts that would cost them an election will have the opposite effect. Pensions and cushy government jobs can't last forever!

 

Wrong, yardmeat. The Articles of Impeachment against Donald Trump contained NO mention of accusations involving CRIMES: https://www.rollcall.com/2019/12/11/house-democrats-abandon-crimes-in-trump-impeachment-articles/ . After all this time, and all this idiotic Democrat Party behavior, did you really not know that...?

Moreover -- Trump has not (NOT) been found guilty of doing any of the things you accused him of in your next paragraph. No, not ONE.

Lastly, to my knowledge, nobody at Fox News has concluded that Joe Biden did nothing wrong. Got a link to support your claim?

 

The articles of impeachment list two high crimes or misdemeanors. Meanwhile, the previous things I mentioned are all things for which there is evidence against him, including lost/settled court cases. And I didn't say that Fox claimed Joe Biden NEVER did ANYTHING wrong. I said they reviewed the documents in question and found nothing damning Joe Biden in those documents.

 

There is only one right way to do math. And that is the "standard" way. Who gives a **** about the "why". Just do it the way it's been taught for generations.

 

Talk to your school board. There's no federal mandates to stop American history, not that I believe you that its no longer taught.

Morality is taught. They teach to treat all others the same and not to bully.
It doesn't get much more moral than that.

 

I agree that it takes a loss of power to unite on a common cause. Being totally out of power means being impotent and I cannot see that concept being something that either party is willing to settle for.

Reaching out to Hispanics makes logical sense however it sets up conflict between Catholicism and Evangelical Christians. That holy war began under Henry VIII and there is still significant distrust between them to this day. Forming a coalition is going to take a lot of work and willingness to compromise IMO.

Then there is the issue of poverty among Hispanics that the GOP will have to come to terms with if it ever wants to gain a majority of their support. Given the negative attitude towards everyone in poverty this is going to a complete overhaul IMO and that will need new leaders with different ideas and approaches. For a Republican Hispanic candidate running for office they will to have something to put on the table.

Going to be interesting to see what policies they will adopt to achieve that goal.

 

I recommend that you read some of @CenterField's posts, Cy. He made the cogent observation that while the Progressives will have an AGENDA turning it into REALITY is a great deal more difficult than it looks.

Obama ended up COMPROMISING on the RIGHTWING healthcare alternative because the Single Payer option was never going to happen.

So don't be scared of the Progressives under your bed, my good friend. They are still political toddlers and it will take several more elections before they get anywhere significant.

 

Which would be INCLUDED in his Net Worth of $9 million.

 

The wannabe Fascist-in-Chief is a LINO AKA leader in name only.

 

NONE of the questions asked WHEN the policy changes would occur.

Instead they asked WHAT and HOW policies would change.

 

ALL of those "factoids" have been DEBUNKED, Cy!

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/securi...dwork-hunter-biden-conspiracy-deluge-n1245387

Looks like all of your OUTRAGE at Joe Biden has now been EXPOSED as being a massive load of DISINFORMATION!

I don't expect you to take a breath and step back and try to figure out how easily you were deliberately MISLEAD by those who are trying to MANIPULATE you into believing their FALSEHOODS about Joe Biden.

This crap happens for a REASON and if you ever want to be a genuine Independent you are going to have to find away to stop the extreme right from pushing your buttons with their duplicitous canards.

Tough to have this illusion of yours SHATTERED, Cy, but I think I know you well enough by now to appreciate that you would prefer to KNOW the actual FACTS rather than just being another duped victim of scumsuckers like Bannon and Guiliani.

 

Your first line is blather - for the most part - Red messed up this country - with help from Blue.
Libs have now gone so far to the extreme that I am forced to support Red this go around but this is not because Red is any good .. just that Blue is so bad.

I predict a Biden win - 4 years of disaster (and this is regardless of who wins) followed by some radical political transformation - perhaps even a 3rd party gaining prominence .. however Red will move towards Fascism and the people will rally behind right wing extremism to try and quell the civil unrest .. which is only just getting started - and win the next one.

SC is a joke - will be putting out jaded political partisan rulings for the next 2 decades. Sorry about the lack of optimism but that is the way it is sometimes.

 

This is an interesting analysis of the situation. I can see the point and understand your position. For me, I can't support Red right now because my priority is public health and healthcare and Red is simply terrible for that. But Blue extremism is not good either. My hope is a Blue White House with a Red Congress to provide checks and balances. This is how I voted this time (Democrat White House Ticket but Republican Senator and House Representative).

In the future I would love to see true alternative parties disrupting the de facto two-party system. If we had five or even better, seven viable and somewhat equally-sized parties, we'd resuscitate terms like compromise, coalition, and cooperation, and might be able to actually move forward and decrease the polarization of our political environment. Our parties should be far left, left, center left, center, center right, right, and far right. Every ideology would be represented, and to win and govern, parties would have to form coalitions. Even better would be a move to a parliamentary system. My hopes for that, though, are not great. This, for the Executive and Legislative powers. The Judiciary would benefit from term limits and rotation.

Brazil, for example, has a constitution very similar to the United States' but two major differences are that Brazil is a true multi-party country and their Supreme Court has more justices and they rotate as Chief Justice, and they have de facto SC term limits with the justices reaching mandatory retirement from the court at a certain age. It doesn't mean that they function much better than we do, for several unrelated reasons, but I like their system.

I also like the way they handle political campaigns, with spending caps, publicly funded equalized time on TV and radio (proportional to the size of each party's congressional delegation), and I particularly like the way they process their votes, with very secure electronic ballots that get tallied literally in a couple of hours after the polls close. Way before midnight, the votes for their huge elections (it's a country with 220 million people and voting is mandatory - the penalties for not voting are relatively small like a very small fine and a hold in certain civil acts until the fine is paid, but are inconvenient enough to get settled - no online payment, it needs to be settled in person - that it is more annoying to settle the fine than to simply go vote, so that almost everybody votes) are counted to the last one, without any shenanigans, and every race is settled without lawsuits and the such, in a couple of hours. While their country is messy in many other ways, we could learn from them in certain aspects of their political life.

https://digitalvote.wordpress.com/2014/10/03/e-voting-in-brazil-step-by-step/

No mail-in votes. They have to show up in person to vote but the very efficient electronic voting machines make it easy and fast so there aren't huge lines. And by the way, they have a national ID and a national voting registration card, everybody has it, nobody complains about it, and voting fraud is practically zero. When I look at this very simple and fool-proof system, I don't understand why we can't have it here. At one point we sent a congressional delegation there to learn from their electronic voting system, but of course, nothing came out of it, since for certain political players here, our electoral mess is advantageous.

 

Many good points ..

Healthcare - 3.5 Trillion total spend in 2017 - Blue - despite the rhetoric - has done nothing to address the systemic issues that lead to this ridiculous cost. Total Fed Revenue for 2017 - 3.6 Trillion .. and for that we get no universal HC and a middle of the road standard of care - among first world nations.

We pay double. I would take the best of the EU systems - some with private alongside - and swap straight across the board .. Save 1.75 Trillion "PER YEAR" - both you and I know this is not going to happen in our pay to play system. The Status Quo will be maintained regardless of who gets in.. Too many golden eggs out of that goose ... which speaks to your point on some friggen oversight w/r to money in Politics.

Again .. not going to happen. I could see a push for term limits to SC or something better thing than we do now -.. All the SC appointees are well vetted by the establishment prior to being "Selected" .. as with our Presidential Candidates .. Selected .. not Elected. So little hope.

Blue has gone off the farm. The party of anti war - are now the neocons .. demonizing the likes of Tulsi Gabbard - with full left wing media complicity.

The party of the ACLU - now hates Dershowitz - for speaking the Truth - and is bashing the heck out of free speech, information, press.

Orwellian as the first two - Now here is the real shocker - and straw that broke this camels back. Blue is now the Anti Environment Party.
Their Policy is horrible - not just ignoring the systemic issues - but wrecking our economy over political grandstanding at the same time.

So far to the left has the extreme gone - Michael Moore - is now Flaming Red by comparison .. another of the latest cancel culture PC demonization fest - for speaking the Truth .. saying things I have been saying for 2 decades - this being my area of subject matter expertise.

Its bad.. and sad .. we are hooped either way - declining empire we are .. Covid will accelerate this decline. The civil and political upheaval we see .. all predicted in "Blood in the Streets" 1987 and "The Great Reckoning" 1994. Not using some crystal ball .. but just by analysis of past cycles .. decline of empire. This is History repeating itself in so many ways - you can't believe it.

So it is not really predictions that are made .. but descriptions of the past - and how it is exactly the same. Reckoning predicted the housing bubble .. just because this always happens .. for certain reasons .. at a certain time.

Last 3 world economic empires - Spanish Dutch British .. all went into major decline 20-25 years after going off Gold - with nothing to hold Gov'ts back from borrowing .. the will do what Gov'ts do.

We went off in 73. The Dow Peaked in early 2000 - 27 years .. we beat the ave. by a few years. But this is a bigger wave than previous ones

The Dow then went 16 years without making a new Constant Dollar High - and all the kings horses and all the kings men could not get head above water - .. huge borrowing over this period - debt was roughly 5 Trillion in 2000.. .. couldn't do it.

Finally - it made a new constant dollar high just after Trump was elected .. during the "Trump Bump" - a last euphoric hurrah .. "The Crest of the Tidal Wave" - also a good book by Prechter .. Elliot wave theory.

Trump then poured debt into the economy like crazy - massive deficits .. huge nitrous oxide injection - and of course any idiot can prop up the markets with Credit Card Spending .. and Like Reagan before him ..along with Bush Bro's and ho's Trump spent like a Princess with a Credit Card.

Managed to bump up GDP from 2% growth to 3-3.5 for around a year .. then it went right back down - its what nitrous oxide does .. what can I tell you..

Prior to Covid the MFG index had been in the toilet for 6 months .. GDP crawling along at 2% .. and we were on track for a 1.2 Trillion dollar deficit. Obama had it down to 500 Billion .. so a massive increase over his term .. just massive.

That was before Covid hit Exxon announced layoffs of 14,000 today - a commercial property meltdown is on the horizon - Shale oil is dust in the wind .. massive write-downs .. capital drying up .. and a dead weight to any who are buying this stuff .. even on the cheap.

We cant maintain current production which had gone from 4 million barrels/day to 13 million. This is going to drop - and drop and drop over time.. it is a dead sector . . which right now has the activity of a slug..

 

Wow, this is probably the most enlightened post I've read here since I joined. I will have a lot to learn from you, since I'm quite clueless in the matters of macro-economics and energy. I will follow your posts, from now on.

Yes, I agree that we are decisively entering an era of decline of the American Empire. Things will never be the same. It's just downhill from now on, and I can't see a way out because of our political divisiveness. "Make America Great Again" is impossible. There is no way to reverse the downtrend. And like you said, Covid-19 will accelerate our decline, given the way we mismanaged it (and a lot more is coming; this is by far not over and we're probably in for a worse third wave than the first two).

My expertise is in Medicine, and I worry about the long term health consequences for the population of a large number of Covid-19 infections. The deaths themselves are a tragedy, every single one of them, but I fear that the economic impact will be more on the survival side than on the death side. Given that Covid-19 preferentially kills seniors, the economic impact of those deaths is somewhat lessened by the fact that the majority of the dead were no longer economically active (again, I lament each death, but I'm just talking now about economic impact; and I fully realize that many who died were economically active; just, that's not predominant). However, a factor that not many pay attention to, is that many of the survivors are likely to develop long term health consequences.

There is growing evidence that even mild and asymptomatic Covid-19 infections weaken people's hearts. In a German study, this was found to be as prevalent as in 78% of survivors. I don't think the incidence will be that high (that small study with 100 people hasn't been replicated and confirmed, yet), but even if it's 10%, the idea that 10% of millions of infected people may develop premature heart failure in a few years is damn scary, in terms of economic impact (burden of treatment costs, lost productivity, premature death).

And that's only one organ. There is evidence of significant lung damage (fibrosis) in survivors, renal insufficiency, neurocognitive deficits... Political pundits and most posters here focus on the death toll, which is relatively small (estimated by the CDC at 0.65% of all infections - again, I lament every death, but 0.65% is relatively small) but forget the much more numerous people who survive the infection but come out of it with some sort of severe organ damage, which may be silent and not apparent now but may take a toll in the person's remaining years of life.

 

I agree and we would be far better off with their system than ours.

The only change I would make is to use RANKED voting with automatic runoffs based on the rankings. That eliminates any of the crap about close elections and coin flips.
The easier it is to vote the better and modern technology can make it both easier and quicker.

 

Interesting .. Chem/Applied Microbiology are my areas... cleaned up sites using bioremediation -and other innovated remediation options.
Saving the world didn't pay well so shifted into biocorrosion - same process -- just metal surface involved

So as we create dead zones in the ocean (and do google this - its not pretty - that will Sargassum epidemic) due to fertilizer run-off - creating anoxic environment where fish cant live .. but anaerobes can - enterics - and so on. Ocean is not a garbage dump - #1 enviro issue right now .. not that CO2 is not.. but this one is even more pressing. We are hitting limits. 2 cans of tuna a week and you are over the mercury limit for pregnant women .. low i know .. but we are hitting thresholds ..

Study - 10 years back - Said if China was able to reach our level of consumption - would resource production would have to double.
China was at (11) - we are (36) someone eating a bowl of rice a day in Africa (1) ..

At the time there was roughly 7 Billion on the planet of which 1.4 Billion were industrialized. - we are now say around 1.8-2 and a whole lot of pollution due to industrialization . So say we got to double that 2.8 Billion .. by 2030 .. another 1.4 Billion industrialized - was dirty and energy intensive .. but they are there.. now we only have 4.2 left right ? Wrong - Pop in 2030 will be 8.5 Billion .. so we did not make a dent in the amount not industrialized

We have already half fished out the Oceans - Northern Indians who still eat seals and stuff -- breast milk too polluted to put on a store shelf - wouldn't pass. Persistent Org Pollutants (POS) accumulate in the northern regions .. and bioaccumulate.

You want to have your Tesla - that's nice .. there are Billions of people now industrializing - most won't be driving a Tesla - but they will be perhaps eating a piece of meat with their rice or a vegetable or two - twice a week.

So lets not build pipelines .. ship the oil we need over from Nigeria - in an oil tanker - encourage industrialization of these nations - massive polluters - Sure .. lets turn Africa into a suburban metropolis - this is not PC -- but it reality .. lets not and say we did

New Green Deal "we will not export our pollution problems to other nations" - This is exactly what not building pipelines does. Not only exporting our problem .. but increasing Ocean Pollution on a grand scale - while not decreasing CO2 by one drop of gasoline.

Are you going to be driving less because the gas happened to be made out of oil from Nigeria vs Canada or Domestic production ?
I doubt Joe Biden or Cortez will be either.

T

 

T that's the most valued statement..

 

I agree that it will take a lot of work. Now we have seen a bit of a shift with the working class moving toward the GOP and the college grad moving away from the GOP to the Democrats. This has been gradual. So there are other dynamics at work other than race of demographics.

Regardless, the Republican Party will have to make several tough choices after this election if it goes as the numbers are saying it will. They'll be completely out of power. The idea of forming a third party also has been or is being kicked around by some loyal Republicans, but very anti Trump. This I'm keeping an eye on.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...blican-supporters-donald-trump-170245426.html

These folks are with Biden, voting for him to get rid of Trump. They have too many differences with the Democratic Party to remain or continue voting Democratic. There're a lot of independents in that same boat. They'll be voting Democratic this year, but if the Democrats take this election for other than what it is, getting rid of Trump and not taking it as a mandate for their policies, you probably will see this group of voters switch to the GOP in 2022. They too have some big differences with the policies and ideology of the Democratic Party. Which they do with the GOP also.

One thing is for sure, interesting times ahead.

 

That's one way to put it.

 

It's OK, Te... I had my 'illusions' shattered LONG before now. This country has been in decline since President Reagan left office, and, in a greater sense, we've been in the doldrums since the assassination of President Kennedy.... I've lived through all of it, Te.

What will a Biden Administration mean? In many ways, more of the same, really.

For 'Boomers' this will be highlighted by continued CRAP cost-of-living increases for EARNED Social Security benefits. There hasn't been a decent one since 2008. The Federal Reserve combine determines all these things, and it has blithely ignored all the many areas of rampant inflation in the prices of nearly everything from housing and rent, to prescription medicine, dental work, government taxes and 'fees', and on and on.

Hand-in-hand with the crap-COLA's will be the continued ZERO-PERCENT interest rates on people's savings accounts. Again, all real economic power in the United States was seized by the Federal Reserve central bank beginning in 2007. They created a 'fraud-balloon' economy to save the stock markets, and enact 'rescues' for those it considered "too-big-to-fail". To make that work it is vital that interest rates are crushed to near-zero, while at the same time, the Fed floods the country with more and more imaginary money....

That's bad enough, but under Biden, some things will get noticeably worse beginning in 2021:

1. The total 'crappening" of Medicare as Democrats expand it to cover millions of people who never EARNED it by working the required forty-quarters (ten years) for eligibility AND becoming 65 years old. It was intended for working people when they retire, not mid-life underachievers whose idea of a 'career' is to invent ways to get subsidies and permanent welfare. Medicaid will be eliminated and everybody will be thrown into 'big healthcare toilet' of "Medicare-for-all"....

2. Swift and steadily increasing prices for energy in every form. Utility bills for everyone will increase greatly over the next two years.

3. Steadily increasing taxes and more "fees" to make the American 'cattle' even more docile and totally dependent on government.

4. Economic "stagflation", reminiscent of the 1970's, as inflation really begins to soar, but working wages shrivel even further as employers find ways to 'cut costs' by using far more robotics, AI, and 'customer-self-help' methods -- all to get unwanted employees off of their payrolls.

This is just a thumbnail sketch of what the future looks like, Te, for the next two years at least -- and that's assuming that things are not made even worse by events directly related to the truly ominous international situation, the continued threat from further mutations of China's unleashed 'virus' bio-weapon, and, wide-open borders that will allow hundreds of thousands MORE impoverished peasants from Mexico and Central America -- all clamoring for 'asylum' and welfare-for-life.

But, congratulations to the Democrat Party! Who would have ever believed that just one 'progressive' political faction could finalize the process for the ruination of the greatest country on Earth in so short a period of time...?

... MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

 

Again, fabulous post. Darn, you're smart. A very original way of looking into things, and it makes a lot of sense. Without having all this clarity, I was already thinking that domestic production of natural gas through fracking (as long as done with certain regulations to protect the immediate environment) was probably a better way than all the push for ending the fossil fuels, at least for now, due to sheer inability from the clean sources to replace fossil fuels joule for joule. The economic damage would be too much... we'd still need the fossil fuels... would have to import them instead of being independent, with geopolitical consequences, and apparently according to your post, polluting consequences too, so what's the point? It's equivalent to the vegan debate... apparently to replace animal protein entirely we'd need so many crops that we'd kill a lot of field animals and disrupt habitats... or the Tesla thing, when making the huge batteries needed also consumes a lot of energy with a considerable footprint. It's the issue of unintended consequences... often something looks nice but to achieve it, there is a negative unintended consequence.