Herd immunity by April?

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Bluesguy, Feb 19, 2021.

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  1. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I mistrust him too, but a bit less. I will never forgive him for the mask blunder (a deliberate lie). He is however a bit more independent than Birx who was in the mode of saying whatever Trump would like her to say. Fauci was more rebellious.

    Trump wanted people to believe in this BS that 94% of Covid deaths are "with" Covid rather than "from" Covid and that the CDC was giving guidance for us doctors to issue death certificates this way, which is simply a lie. Trump even said that we doctors are very smart in doing it this way because we make more money if we do it, which is another absurd lie (and betrays a profound misunderstanding of how billing works). But yes, Dr. Birx obliged. Do notice that Dr. Birx was never a CDC official. Like I said, this was never the CDC guidance. The CDC merely revised the guidelines to include presumptive Covid deaths, which does make perfect sense (I've explained in other posts what the difference is).

    My respect for that sycophant Dr. Birx is zero. Actually, minus ten. That's why I was rolling on the ground laughing when this poster (with whom I'll no longer speak; given that this person started the personal attacks mode, making assumptions about me, that I stay in my lab and don't live in the real world, LOL, far from it) brought up... a Birx video clip, LOL, thinking that it would be proof of this viewpoint. It's more like whatever Birx says points to the truth being the very opposite...

    Lay people are simply not equipped to fully understand the CDC's guidance for death certificates. But it can be explained in simple terms. I've done it, multiple times, here on PF. It's long and I won't repeat it here in this thread but if you want to learn what the truth is, you can advanced-search my posts with "death certificate" as key words.

    I explain there the whole sequence of events leading to death, and I give examples of different phenotypes (the pneumonia/respiratory insufficiency one versus the cytokine storm/intravascular coagulation one), and how a death "with" Covid is to be codified, as opposed to a death "from" Covid. I explain the co-morbidity issue and how to fill parts I and II of the certificate. I explain what presumptive Covid is, and its relationship with lab test confirmation versus clinical judgment about a typical and unique sequence of hospital course in the absence of lab test confirmation (an issue that, by the way, was only relevant in the early days of the pandemic; nowadays there is no longer a test shortage).

    Anyway, whatever. I have little patience with the kind of lay person who behaves arrogantly and starts the personal attacks while spouting nonsense. That's why I said over and out.
     
  2. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Correct in all respects.
    Yes, like I said, there are currently some 9 variants of concern.
    There will be more.
     
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  3. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No, not pig Latin.
    I'm talking about real, major languages.
     
  4. Heartburn

    Heartburn Well-Known Member

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    Well....I can fold a fitted sheet.
     
  5. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    LOL :cool:
     
  6. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully in the near future we will see a reduction from the effects of the vaccines on total replication events.
     
  7. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    True. That's why I didn't include any of the variants in that paper, in the list of the 9 currently most concerning variants. In this, only the CAL.20C is a truly concerning domestic variant, so far. It is hard to know exactly why the UK has originated a number of them, a country with a much smaller population. Intervening factors like the ones you've mentioned that aren't immediately evident may have played a role.

    Brazilian medical infrastructure is the weirdest. It's what they call 2-speed Medicine. On one hand you have the SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde) which is their universal healthcare, public, always overwhelmed, always over-crowded, where it is common for people to die while they wait to be seen. On the other hand you have EXTREMELY sophisticated private medical care for the rich, in outstanding hospitals that are actually better than most hospitals in the United States, like São Paulo's Hospital Sírio-Libanês which is basically as good as the Mayo Clinic. Usually in those hospitals the overwhelming majority of doctors were trained in the US or the main European Union countries.

    In-between these two systems, they do have the University Hospitals from the main medical schools, many of them public but excellent, like the Hospital das Clínicas da USP, the one from Unicamp, the one from USP-Ribeirão Preto, and the ones from the UFRJ and UFMG. These are five very fine hospitals.

    But a city like Manaus doesn't have a good University Hospital, and doesn't have any outstanding private hospital that I know of. So, the population of this large city is left to the mercy of the very inadequate SUS.

    But you know, this virus is such that even countries with advanced medical care can do poorly. Look at the case of Italy. It has one of the best medical systems in the world; actually ranked #2 by the WHO (although a bit lower in other classifications but always up there with the best). Italy has a bigger hospital bed capacity per million inhabitants than the US, doctors are extremely well-trained, and the whole system works very well, outside of a pandemic. OK, they got totally overwhelmed by the onslaught of the first wave.

    The hospital system in France is just amazing, and in my opinion (and I know their system intimately well) far better than in the United States. They got slammed too.
     
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  8. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Definitely, that's the hope, which is why I said that we are currently engaged in a race "vaccines versus variants." Apparently Moderna and Pfizer will both dramatically increase production capacity and US deliveries in March, and Johnson and Johnson will contribute with 20 million doses of their single-shot vaccine by late March (they will likely get approved by the FDA the day after tomorrow, and by the CDC by Sunday). This should help a lot.
     
  9. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Wow, that's impressive.
     
  10. Heartburn

    Heartburn Well-Known Member

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    I know.
     
  11. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Can you teach me? Please? Pretty please?
     
  12. Heartburn

    Heartburn Well-Known Member

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    Probably not.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2021
  13. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What kind of things? Naughty things? :eek:
     
  14. Heartburn

    Heartburn Well-Known Member

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    I just fold 'em I don't abuse 'em.
     
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  15. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Yes and you mentioned somewhere the other day in another thread (maybe yours on sharing our oversupply with other countries) how important it is to get replication events down everywhere—not just at home. Very good point and reason to be “generous”.
     
  16. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Oh @CenterField, I forgot to comment on the “mink variant”. I’m sure the anti fur lobby is a mess of conflicted emotions. On one hand the fur industry took a huge blow, but the mink are dead, which isn’t exactly what they want either.
     
  17. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Exactly. Johnson and Johnson will deliver 100 million doses by late June. Moderna and Pfizer 300 million each by if I recall correctly late July. That's more than what we need. Anything else should be donated to the Covax Facility initiative because if we allow more variants of concern to pop up elsewhere in the Third World, they will come back to bite us.
     
  18. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    LOL
     
  19. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Interesting comparison:

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They cooked the books and any U.S. Covid data reflect garbage in, garbage out.

    This is still current on the CDC website...

    Deaths with an underlying cause of death of COVID-19 are not included in these estimates of deaths due to other causes, but deaths where COVID-19 appeared on the death certificate as a multiple cause of death may be included in the cause-specific estimates. For example, in some cases, COVID-19 may have contributed to the death, but the underlying cause of death was another cause, such as terminal cancer. For the majority of deaths where COVID-19 is reported on the death certificate (approximately 95%), COVID-19 is selected as the underlying cause of death.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
     
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  21. Heartburn

    Heartburn Well-Known Member

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    In every one of those years we had flu vaccine. The numbers for Covid next year will be a better comparison.
     
  22. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    CDC changed the guidance for certifying deaths on March 24th last year to reflect almost any death as Covid death. I'll wait for the 2020 "total mortality" data to come out in a few months, but when they are ready to stop Covid lockdowns and replace them with Climate Crisis Days lockdowns, they'll just change the death certificate guidance back to pre-2020 guidelines. Or there will be some "new and improved" more dangerous pandemic for them to scare the public into compliance.

    It wouldn't be surprising if up to half the excess deaths were due to interruptions in regular healthcare service when we told people to hold off on their treatments for heart disease, cancer, kidney issues, dental work and other health maintenance. People also hesitated to dial 9-1-1 out of fear of Covid or not wanting to be "selfish" and take up a hospital bed that was reserved for a Covid case. They died at home. Indirectly, suicides and drug overdoses skyrocketed when people lost their financial livelihoods through no fault of their own.

    I'm sure there are real Covid deaths which contributed to excess deaths, but the crisis response likely killed just as many people as the virus and people got counted as "probable" Covid death if they didn't test positive but die from something else.
     
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  23. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    True. Good point.
     
  24. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    I already know the pro-Trump people will end up discrediting CDC's final death numbers/causes of death, and for said reason, I've been publishing State's figures, for example;

    Michigan.......https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/osr/Provisional/MontlyDxCounts.asp

    Arizona...........https://pub.azdhs.gov/health-stats/mu/index.php

    California.......https://data.chhs.ca.gov/dataset/statewide-death-profiles

    AND for your info, Texas' Department of Health will soon publish their Jan - Dec 2020 death figures/causes of death.........I predict YOU will not like their provisional and final data.

    NOTE: Partisan people are easy to ridicule.
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2021
  25. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I've been around a long time and I can't remember ever seeing cities move in refrigerator trucks to store dead bodies, or pictures of mass graves in America. Can't even remember hospitals being overrun during flu season.
     
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