Here We Go Again (The Carter Nightmare)

According to EIA, we consume a negligible amount of crude oil for domestic use. They use "product supplied" as a proxy for consumption. This EIA link lists all of the products output from refineries.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_a.htm

Comparing bpd of crude and bpd of refinery products is meaningless. It's made more meaningless by the fact that crude oil is one component of the petroleum input to refineries. You'd have to add 4 bpd to the crude component to get to the actual petroleum input. In addition, 1M bpd of biofuels like ethanol are also added to refinery inputs and end up in consumption (aka, product supplied).

I know you need to prove that Trump was lying in 2019 when he talked about energy independence. That aside, the difference between 2018 that you used and 2019 that I cited is that you posted that my math was wrong.

 

I gave you numbers from the EIA ... and never mentioned Trump lying .. and in fact was arguing against the fellow claiming Trump was lying .. just in a different way .. the only point relevant in this conversation in relation to my defense of Trump .. was that we import alot of oil from non industrialized nations..

Now F-Off .. I hate this lame Ad Hom Fallacy ..

 

Are you actually complaining we were independent, producing more than we were consuming? A net exporter? Why low energy cost? REALLY?

So stopping a pipeline that wasn't finished and would not be used for oil in this country had what effect? I'll help you.....none.

No he and his Operation Warp speed and those working in that massive operation along with the pharma's saved MILLIONS. COVID got a lot of people killed. Some governors got people killed in how they manage care is some instances, some did remarkably well.

Instead of trying to put words in my mouth why not respond to what I actually say? Things might go better.

The issue is the REPONSE, which so far has been another failure by this administration which can't seem to take the problems we face nor their jobs very seriously.

If he was sick and could not do his job as Secretary of Transportation in a transpiration crisis in this country I would expect him to tender his resignation and barring that the President asking for it. He does not come under family leave as a cabinet official. He put himself before the best interest of the country.

 

I didn't support the first, but that was going to be the first and the last and was AT THE TIME the economy was being shutdown by all the governors and massive job losses. That is not the case now, hasn't been for a year. Biden was not under those same conditions and pressures and in fact just as in 2009 his actions are harming the recovery and slowing it down and not causing inflation we haven't seen in over 30 years heading to stagflation, Carter's nightmare. This time it will be Biden's.

 

It is just one of the failures. The continued outpouring of government "free money" is the bigger factor.

 

Not if yesterday a gallon of milk cost $9, and now it's $10. Ignoring taxes, yesterday you could have bought a gallon of milk if you worked exactly one hour, today you can't.

 

And its STILL a raise.

raise

noun
Definition of raise

1: an act of raising or lifting
2: a rising stretch of road : an upward grade : RISE
3: an increase in amount: such as
a: an increase of a bet or bid
b: an increase in wages or salary
4: a vertical or inclined opening or passageway connecting one mine working area with another at a higher level

 

This is nothing like Carter's time .. can't see the comparison .. and even if we do get to stagflation .. which I don't see but is possible - the factors and surrounding economic environment will be completely different .. We are talking two very different economic situations.

I see something akin to hyper-inflation ... not like in a third world nation .. slower but at a rather fast pace .... but this is just a guess based on the massive amount of money printing... and a comparison that I think is more warrented

I liken our current position as similar to that of other world empires - - having peaked and gone into decline - last 3 world ecnomic empires went into major decline roughly 20-25 years after going off Gold .. we made it 27 ... The crash of 2000 being the peak .. not making a new constant dollar high for 16 years .. finally under Trump .. in a debt fuled mania ..and a few other factors .. we made a new constant dollar high .. one last peak .. the so called "Crest of the Tidal wave"

Carter was in the low spending zone just prior to the baby boomers hitting their high spending years .. something which really kicked in during Reagans term... and a serious oursourcing ramp up..

Now we are in the reverse situation .. the boomers going into low spending years - and the calculations .. many of which you have probably heard .. are really fricken grim .. Healthcare was 3.5 Trillion - 2018 .. Federal Revenue 3.6 for comparison .. Now you tell me all the boomers going to retirement .. halfway through actually .. kind of at the peak rate right now .. which is part of the reason for the hiring issues IMO .. Folks that just left and not comming back ..

At the end of Obama - and you should now by now that I very much dislike Obama - the deficit was 500 Billion and the total Debt round 20 Trillion.... and prior to Obama was around 10 Trillion .. prior to Bush was 5 Trillion.

So... doubling every 8 years pretty much ... which is fricken unsustainable .. Will Biden hit 40 ? I will answer like Einstein did about the ww3... I don't know .. but I can tell you that we won't hit 80 ... as the house of cards will have collapsed by then .. at which point its just funny money.

Fed has 9 Trillion on its balance sheet .. up from like 4 not that long ago.. supposed to unload that back into the market at some point .. increasing supply .. all Bidens new debt .. increasing supply .. all the short term debt we financed at super low interest rates.. coming due .. along with some of the older stuff ..

As the world reserve currency .. these silly supply demand issues were not that big of an issue -- but even being the WRC .. these issues are having an effect .. showing just how huge the mess is.

Soon we will loose WRC status .. no longer be the Sole world reserve currency .. at which point the interest rates on our debt will skyrocket.

See .. Carter was in a world where interest rates were super high 20% for a morgage .. Just nasty .. with nowhere to go but down .. Ave interest on our debt was 6-7% by the end of Slick Willie's term

We .. are on the other end of the rope .. Going from "Insanely" low = something is wrong .. to up up up.... the proverbial "Invisible hand" slapping back.

but hey .. these thigns take time .. so enjoy the good times while the money falls from the sky .. as that is what is propping up the tree.. to the tune of 6 Trillion over the past 2 years. Revenue for 2020 - remember I said was 3.6 in 2018 .. 3.4 Trillion.

So we basically doubled our spending over the last 2 years .. borrowing near as much as Revenue.. That's quite the nitrous oxide injection ..

 

In the 50s/60s - a fellow working at Sears could afford a house - car ... and the wife didn't have to work.

Now with 3 in the house working at Sears you can't do that

 

But the primary reason for that was the fact that every other country's infrastructure was devastated by WWII.

 

No, just proving that you are wrong about being "independent". And that false claim was good for only 2019.

Am I complaining about that? No.

I don't understand the context of these questions

Why are you repeating a post I made?

Wait......you're saying Trump is responsible for getting a dangerous, experimental drug that has unknown future health concerns but saved MILLIONS of lives with it? Wow.

I did respond to what you actually said. You highlighted the "He's insane" and answered that but since you didn't say anything about the rest I just figured you agreed with it. If you didn't agree with it, why not dispute it?

Ohhh, it's the response now. It was different in your other posts. The real problem is the GLOBAL problem with dealing with covid, transportation and just plain greed. It's unrealistic and completely unfair to put it onto one person.

A politically biased position that is totally false.

 

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As I cited a net exporter and independent sorry that's a burr under your saddle. Sorry you can't stand that instead of millions dying we got a vaccine in record time. Your opinion that Trump is insane is not worthy of discussion.

And now we are back begging OPEC and Russia for more, grow slowing and inflation rearing it's ugly head and an administration that is deer in the headlights. No I don't absolve this administration or our SecTrans of a failure to respond because his being with his child was more important to HIM. He is unqualified to begin with and does not grasps the responsibility of it.

 

Inflation feeds upon itself and Biden and Dems clearly intent to keep inflating the economy with their massive spending plans.

And we don't have a third of the economy shutdown and a raging pandemic with no available treatments. The last 2 years will forever be a huge asterisk in history.. Biden and the Dems in Congress don't need to be doing when COVID hit. But they are and it will only keep us from getting into a full recovery just like how they handled the 2009 recession. And with inflation hitting at the same time that leads to stagflation.

 

2 years .. and how much longer .. no end in sight that I can see .. you tried to travel to a vacation destination.. ? and that is if one is vaxxed .. can't to many places if your not.. Forget it .. not worth the hassle .. go see Mt. Rushmore or something.. lots of places to visit here. - which is a good thing in a way perhaps .. but . point being - normal is not yet on the horizon.. The shot is now good for 3 months .. so .. if following "protocol" shold be getting a new shot every 3 months... not that I have taken the first... but just sayin ..

Won't blame Biden for the Pandemic .. well .. actually I will but not directly and not for the economic stuff ... the focus away from treatment has been .. and is .. medical malpractice .. and is making things much worse .. but that aside .. not going to blame him for the Pandemic

What I will blame him for .. other than the aforementioned ... is adding 6 Trillion to the debt in 2 friggen years.. and what we have to show for it .. Should have had our infrastructure built and 3rd millennia ready for that kind of cash .. only now are we going to put 120 billion a year for 10 years .. .. 6 Trillion dollars. Im telling you we are in trouble .. .. What happens when you stop .. when you pull 3 Trillion in spending off the table .. OK .. Lets say Revenue rebounds to 4 Trillion this year . the differential "ONLY" being 2.4 Trillion .. say we still run a deficit of 1 Trillion .. and only take out 1.4 .. that is some serious bends .. heroin withdrawl .. and we are still running Trillion dollar deficits .. which of course is not going to happen .. .. "Wait for it" .. the projection for this year is .. care to guess ???? .. You got it .. nail on the head .. another 3 Trillion .. for the third year in a row .. ding ding ding...

 

Hogwash!
Net inflation is 1.3%
Wages rose 4.9% and inflation is 6.2%.
6.2 minus 4.9 = 1.3, hardly the staggering number you chicken littles make it out to be!!!!

 

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Can you see your own chart? You have a severe case of tunnel vision if, looking at that graph, your interpretation is that oil production, "tanked," in 2021. If you can include in your field of thought, the whole of that line, going back to 1985, you'll realize that current production is higher than at any time other than for about a year and a half, around 2018.

There cannot be indefinite, straight-line, accelerated growth. Also, just as OPEC Nations kept supplies low in 2020, because of limited, worldwide demand, it is not unreasonable to assume that American producers, as well, voluntarily cut production, during the current pandemic. As you earlier were speaking of oil as a commodity, I would assume you understand that oil companies do not hoard the oil they produce: it goes from well, to refinery, to market-- not into storage. So if there is no market, at the time, that oil becomes almost worthless to them. They actually got to the point, not long ago, when the market price of oil was a NEGATIVE value, that is, when they were PAYING anyone who would take delivery on their product, and haul it away. This is not brain surgery; the oil production pipeline is not like a light switch. Demand had been in an historic depression, so production was cut. Now that demand is increasing, oil companies have not been able to ramp all the way back to 100% capacity, yet. Do not forget that the pandemic has not yet ended, so those oil drilling, and oil refining, and oil transporting-- that is, trucking-- operations must still contend with the labor shortages which are affecting other industries, both domestically, & worldwide.

Also, in case you have failed to hear of this, there is a planetary climatological, and environmental disaster, unfolding, in real time, called Global Warming. Though its effects may not have been especially noticeable to you, personally, at this point, the repercussions can be thought of like building pressure, in a pipe: eventually it will need find release. Likewise, already in our atmosphere is the "pressure," that will lead to mounting effects, going forward; nature, even less than the oil industry, does not turn on a dime. So the concept of f**king the hell out of the Earth, in maximizing every drop of oil we can squeeze out of her, is no longer the international game plan. This is not to say that we still do not need plenty of oil for this transition period; but that period is now beginning, in earnest. As the development of new oil sources is a venture that is generally measured in decades, basic business acumen is telling oil execs, that it is an investment opportunity that has been rapidly coming to a close; that is why, when the Trump Administration put up for auction, land in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge, predicting billions in proceeds, NOT A SINGLE OIL PRODUCER BIT.

I wish you luck, in adapting your mental view of the world, to reality.

 

So what? In case you haven't looked at a calendar recently, it ain't the 50s anymore.

 

That was the point .. duuuuhhhhh..

 

As compared to doing what? Nothing!! I never said or implied that should have been the course of action but to say that "warp speed" was some brilliant Trump idea that was carried out is ridiculous because the alternative would be to do nothing and to be honest, the mechiniziams were there to do the work already. The only block that Trump "MAY" have had anything to do with is to get it approved but because Trump is Trump and really didn't care about the millions the you say you care about, he would have approved bleach if he thought it would help him.

It's not just my opinion and it should be discussed when he runs again.

We aren't begging anyone.

What does that mean in the context you put it?

Inevitable with covid

You don't think things are happening? What do you think SHOULD be happening? Are the Republicans coming to the table with anything?

What a shock, you hold him as unqualified and responsible yet you have also touted the Trump administration as having the best and brightest when the reality is was a clown car stuck in a revolving door. He had more turnover of cabinet positions than any modern President.

 

Get government regulation out of the way so markets can heal.

 

As compared to the 2,500,000 - 3,000,000 project deaths had we not had OWS and the vaccines and logistics that were put in place.
I have no idea if he is going to run again but certainly he could run on the success of OWS.
Yes we are, OPEC and Russia
For trying to be in a recovery growing slower.

"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent.Oct 28, 2021"
https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross...c product (GDP,real GDP increased 6.7 percent.​

What is happening and be specific.
Never made such a state about the Trump administration, have not discussed it and has no bearing HERE and I don't recall any of his Cabinet Secretaries being AWOL during a crisis in their areas or responsibility.

 

Inflation is over 6% PERIOD, hasn't been this high 30 years, people want to earn more money to buy more things not to keep up with government inflating the economy and making their dollars worth less.

Stop trying to desperately put lipstick on this pig

 

Just so we're clear, you're talking about the debt fueled sugar high the economy briefly experienced due to the tax cut, right? The one that was obliterated, follow by a deep recession (made longer than necessary) by Trump's botched response to the COVID outbreak, right?

 

Just my view of it, and I agree but think it' more. I don't buy the 6.2% number for a minute, I think it's far higher than that and the Brandon administration is cooking the books on it like they have been on everything else to snow the public and avoid blame.

In my private life, the cost of groceries, insurance and utilities are all up substantially more. In my business, our largest material item jumped 10% just last week- and that is the third increase this year. The price of cars are up; used cars dramatically- like 20%. Prices on our products had been very stable for a long time; one of our products went 10 years without needing a price increase. Now, we have had to increase prices about 15% across the board so far or this year, and may have to do another increase... and our profit margin is smaller too.

Real inflation on the street looks like 12-15% to me. Maybe worse. You are right in saying there's a pay cut. Even if the dollar number is up, the buying power is probably less.

Here's a footnote just found:

The Springdale, Arkansas-based Tyson, the biggest U.S. meat company by sales, said chicken prices rose 19% during its fiscal fourth quarter while beef and pork prices jumped 33% and 38%, respectively.
That's in the last 90 days.