Is A Recession Imminent???

There is a lot of talk that a recession is looming for the American economy. Listen, Pause and Reflect on Professor Wolff's sagacious commentaries on current events! Will there be more bailouts for the too-big-to-fail banks and other corporations? Many of you folks know where this is heading!!

 

Yes. there is a recession coming. I think it's inevitable given the inflation we're experiencing.

 

Imminent. No. We have been in a recession since the beginning of the year. Government doesn't know that but we business people see it clearly from personal experience.

 

Recession started and ended in 2020. Will there be another one? Maybe, but it would probably last a short time like the 2020 one. Bail outs? Why on earth would there be a need for that. We're not talking about 2007-08 style melt-down. Job market is red hot, housing is red hot, salaries are going up. Inflation is a problem, but that alone will not cause any kind of melt down.

It seems you don't know what a recession is.

 

It seems you can't see one when it arrives.

 

I said we might see one soon. It depends on quarterly growth numbers.

There are several indicators and we're not there yet. Like I said employment is hot, incomes increasing, production can't even satisfy demand, and sales are through the roof. I know you want a recession for partisan reasons, but you might have to wait.

In recession there is significant decline in economic activity seen in these indicators:
- Visible in real GDP,
- Real income,
- Employment,
- Industrial production,
- Wholesale-retail sales.

 

I said we might see one soon. It depends on quarterly growth numbers.

There are several indicators and we're not there yet. Like I said employment is hot, incomes increasing, production can't even satisfy demand, and sales are through the roof. I know you want a recession for partisan reasons, but you might have to wait.

In recession there is significant decline in economic activity seen in these indicators:
- Visible in real GDP,
- Real income,
- Employment,
- Industrial production,
- Wholesale-retail sales.

 

A recession is a contraction in economic growth. Such a contraction has been going on for many months. How do I know? I operate a business within the economy and see it every day. It will be a few more months before you are allowed to see it. Be patient.

 

So, your business is not doing well, and that means the whole nation is in a recession. How cute lol

 

I didn't say anything like that but I'm glad your words provided you a laugh. They worked for me as well.

 

Wolff tends to be a little nutty, but he always makes some interesting points.

As to the question: Yes, a recession will be coming, if not this year, then next year, or the year after.....

Listen, NOBODY can predict when a recession will be coming. If they could, they would be rich rather than being TV or social media pundits. Are the odds, however, of a recession going up? Yes, they are. We are long overdue since 2008, disregarding the brief 2020 covid recession. We are getting to the end of the cycle of debt build up, which has been driving the economy since 2008, both private and public debt. Eventually, this debt has to be destroyed before a new cycle of debt taking and economic expansion can start. It's always been like this.

 

Undoutedly.
The world hasn't started to recover from Covid yet.
Ukraine is going to cost à fortune over à long time.
Strikes and pay demands are going to push up inflation and interest rates, putting more pressure on govt finance.
Costs around climate change will also grow.
When the major économies go into récession, investment will fall, growth will fall, incomes will fall.
After years of complacent surely that there will always be growth and financial security, there will now be real hardship for millions in both the developed world and as a result, elsewhere.

 

Biden's policies first gave us inflation, most of us saw it a year ago but the MSM and the government would not report it. Eventually they did. The same policies will soon give us a recession. Most of us will see it but the MSM and the government will not report it. But eventually they will. Many people who voted for Biden will not blame him but anyone with common sense will. It's the economy stupid. It's Biden's policies stupid.

 

Do you have ANY idea why the developed world is all suffering inflation?
What is your explanation?

 

If we skip using the word inflation which is really money supply expansion, the high prices around the world are due to an imbalance between demand and supply. Prices changes are always because imbalances between supply and demand.

 

Yes

 

Yes OK.
Now what has caused this imbalance?

 

Yes, recession is imminent. This will be my third one since I started working. The good news is that we will all be millionaires!!! Im already a trillionaire in Zimbabwe!

 

I'll be rich too as soon as that Nigerian prince comes through with his promises. He's certainly taking his time about it.

 

Ha! We elected him!

 

You people who try to make a simple U.S. problem as large as the world make me laugh.

 

The reality is the other way around.
The global problem is affecting every developed and many underdeveloped nations.
It is called Covid and à rather expensive war.

 

It wasn't COVID that caused inflation. It was the government's profoundly stupid idea of shutting down the country in response to COVID and issuing mega trillions of dollars created out of thin air.

 

So during à global pandemic about which no one knew much and was highly infectious and killed thousands of people you think it should have been business as usual?
Well that is one way of reducing demand...

 

There is no reliable evidence shutdowns had anything more than marginal effect on COVID infection and death rates. There is a great deal of evidence the shutdowns had a devastating effect on our economy. The shutdowns caused more harm than good according to a John Hopkins study.

https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/jhisa...hDcYkZj7w4NlnmjbbhjhnZGDBVJUf463sLtctTPUnpOmw
A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality

Abstract
"This systematic review and meta-analysis are designed to determine whether there is empirical evidence to support the belief that “lockdowns” reduce COVID-19 mortality. Lockdowns are defined as the imposition of at least one compulsory, non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI). NPIs are any government mandate that directly restrict peoples’ possibilities, such as policies that limit internal movement, close schools and businesses, and ban international travel. This study employed a systematic search and screening procedure in which 18,590 studies are identified that could potentially address the belief posed. After three levels of screening, 34 studies ultimately qualified. Of those 34 eligible studies, 24 qualified for inclusion in the meta-analysis. They were separated into three groups: lockdown stringency index studies, shelter-in-place-order (SIPO) studies, and specific NPI studies. An analysis of each of these three groups support the conclusion that lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality. More specifically, stringency index studies find that lockdowns in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average. SIPOs were also ineffective, only reducing COVID-19 mortality by 2.9% on average. Specific NPI studies also find no broad-based evidence of noticeable effects on COVID-19 mortality.

While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument."
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