What is the AGW Scientific Consensus?

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Golem, Aug 5, 2022.

  1. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    No, they do not.
     
  2. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Sorry, but projected increase in hurricanes and typhoons is a staple of AGW advocacy.
     
  3. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    What is it you want to comment about?

    As I said before, Crichton is a great Science Fiction writer. His opinion on Global Warming is neither more relevant or more informed than anybody else's here.

    I don't like debating the opinion of somebody who is not here. So if you agree with something he says, go ahead and make the point yourself, and I'll be happy to comment.
     
  4. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    And I was here expecting you to provide quotes. If not from actual studies, at least from reputable scientists or scientific organizations. You wouldn't do that, of course. Because that would force you to deal with reality. And you'd be lost outside the quaint fantasy world that you pseudoscience blogs have built for you.

    Once again we are reminded that we are dealing with science denialism.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2022
  5. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Tsk tsk. Denying something so obvious.
    Study finds Atlantic hurricane becoming more frequent ...
    https://www.washingtonpost.com › weather › 2021/12/02


    Dec 2, 2021 — The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season ended Tuesday, marking the close of the sixth consecutive above-average season. A study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology published Thursday offers evidence that there is indeed a long-term trend toward increasing numbers of Atlantic hurricanes. . . .
     
  6. Battle3

    Battle3 Well-Known Member

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    Evolution is defintely not settled. How do you get from one species to a new species? Saying mutation and natural selection is shallow, the pain is in the detailed questions and there are no answers to those. Evolution is just the best available answer but its far from being a real answer.

    Quantum mechanics is not settled and its not the final step, its just the current best availble theory just as at one time Newtonian physics was the best available. Then Newton was replaced with relativity and we saw how utterly lacking Newton was in describing the world. One day QM will replaced and we will see how utterly flawed it was.

    Gravity is not settled, there is a huge effort to figure out how gravity actually works not to mention trying to link it (if it is linked) to the other fundamental forces.

    Its only AGW people that claim AGW is settled science, and only scientificly illiterate AGW fanatics claim AGW is as settled as evolution, QM, and gravity. You shot yourself down.
     
  7. Grey Matter

    Grey Matter Well-Known Member Donor

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    I think that there is room to debate your assertion that the opinions of folks posting here carry the same weight as Mike Crichton's opinion on what is and what isn't science, and that his credibility begins and ends with being a writer of science fiction. Have you read this article then?
     
  8. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    You SAID: "projected increase in hurricanes and typhoons is a staple of AGW advocacy."

    SHOW "AGW advocacy" claiming that. Fact is that science has never predicted that there would be an increase in the number of hurricanes and typhoons. This fact claims it already happened. It's not "projecting" anything. But, in fact "AGW advocacy" (as you call it) is VERY skeptical of that paper you mention.

    But now I see why you only quote science denialist websites. The reason is you have a hard time understanding REAL science
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2022
  9. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ok. So that pretty much tells us that it would be useless to expect to have a serious debate about ANY science with you.

    Thanks anyway....
     
  10. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    I don't know. I have read Crichton articles denying Climate Science in the past. They don't stand out in memory as particularly insightful. The first paragraph of this one was more than enough for me to realize that it would be a waste of time. Even in 2003 (when it was written) there was an overwhelming number of scientific studies that demonstrated the AGW consensus. Almost 20 years later there are thousands more. The article appears to be about "why" people who are not climatologists accept the AGW consensus. And the ONLY reason is that there are that many studies that support it, and so few (probably NONE) that negate it. But I do support the rules in this forum that states that links, references, quotes... should be used to SUPPORT your point. Not to make your point so you. So, if you have a point to make, go ahead and make it.

    Furthermore, I just think it's ridiculous to discuss WHY we believe that Global Warming happens now that it HAS happened
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2022
  11. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Please read more carefully.
    ". . . Previous research had suggested a possible increase in Atlantic hurricane intensity in recent decades, tied to human-caused climate change. This study not only supports that, showing storms are becoming more destructive, but also finds that both hurricanes and major hurricanes are increasing in frequency, a more controversial idea.

    The study, published in Nature Communications, was led by MIT atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel, who employed a novel approach to evaluate past storm activity. Rather than relying on historical observations, which may have gaps, he performed climate modeling to reconstruct a continuous record of hurricane activity over the past 150 years from which to gauge trends. . . ."
     
  12. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    Previous RESEARCH is not "advocacy". SHOW "AGW advocacy" claiming that there would be an increase of hurricanes and typhoons.

    Research is research. Those of us who UNDERSTAND science know that it may be right, it may be wrong. It's idiotic to claim that EVERYTHING that a couple of research papers, in a sea of thousands of thousands of studies... is "AGW advocacy". Especially in this case, in which pro-science authos have gone out of their way to clarify that they are NOT claiming there will be an increase in hurricanes and typhoons.

    Add yet another false claim to your slate. Every time you try to quote actual science, you demonstrate again and again how much you struggle to understand science. It's clear why you quote pseudoscience sites and not actual science, to support your science denialism.

    Every single time! I mean, that's gotta be a record!
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2022
  13. Battle3

    Battle3 Well-Known Member

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    You are that shallow? Clearly you have no actual scientific knowledge of evolution beyond the talking point.
     
  14. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    You're still not reading carefully. Here the study's principal author goes beyond his research results.
    ". . . “The evidence does point, as the original historical record did, to long-term increases in North Atlantic hurricane activity,” he said in a news release. . . . "
     
  15. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    Real scientists have been complaining about that since the 90s.

    All you do here is propaganda.
     
  16. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Those "real scientists" are just huddling together for protection from free inquiry.
     
  17. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    Several studies also point at an increased level of energy in hurricanes. Which explains the increase in costs.

    More energy in, more energy out.
     
  18. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    There is plenty of scientific inquiry, all you do is propaganda, most of that is usually blatantly false, if one were honest about it.
     
  19. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    You're apparently new to the exchange because I don't think you would be helping to make my point on purpose.
    Increased costs are almost entirely because of increased building on coasts.
     
  20. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    We disagree. I try to be civil about it.
     
  21. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    Your propaganda is monstrously uncivil.
     
  22. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    That's part of it, but scientists, insurance companies and governmental disaster agencies say something quite different.

    Which you know, because I've told you, you lie for fun and profit.
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2022
  23. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Bertrand Russell
    “Love is wise; hatred is foolish. In this world, which is getting more and more closely interconnected, we have to learn to tolerate each other, we have to learn to put up with the fact that some people say things that we don't like. We can only live together in that way. But if we are to live together, and not die together, we must learn a kind of charity and a kind of tolerance, which is absolutely vital to the continuation of human life on this planet.”
    ― Bertrand Russell
     
  24. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Maimonides
    “Truth does not become more true by virtue of the fact that the entire world agrees with it, nor less so even if the whole world disagrees with it.”
    ― Maimonides, The Guide for the Perplexed
     
  25. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    Clearly his news release is meant to support his study.

    You're not reading YOUR OWN statement: "projected increase in hurricanes and typhoons is a staple of AGW advocacy."

    It is NOT true that scientists projected such increase. Some studies pointed to an increase, others to a decrease, others to none. Scientists went out of their way to SAY that they were not projecting an increase in the number. But that they expected an increase in THE INTENSITY.

    To be honest, I don't think this is a problem of you not reading. It's probably more due to how you struggle understanding of science is lacking.
     

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