U.S. grew 2.9% in third quarter, GDP shows, and there’s little sign of recession for now

SNIP
The economy grew at an annual 2.9% pace in the third quarter, updated figures show, and the U.S. is on track to expand again in the waning months of 2022 despite growing worries of recession.

Gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, was revised up from a 2.6% rate of growth in the preliminary reading issued last month. GDP had shrunk in the first two quarters of the year.

The largest contribution to growth in the third quarter came from a huge drop in the trade deficit. It added 2.9 percentage points to GDP. The broader economy’s performance was less stellar, however.

The economy is forecast to expand again in the fourth quarter running from October to December, but estimates vary from as much as 4% to less than 1%. All figures are adjusted for inflation.
ENDSNIP

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u...-little-sign-of-recession-for-now-11669815688

I'm no economer, but this sounds like pretty good news. Sure, there are always worries about what the Fed might do, but I understand they are considering NOT doing any more scary 3/4 point raises going forward, although a few smaller raises might still happen,

Also, after that little rebound blip in early October, the national gas price average is down to 3.54, lowest it's been since Putin's war started in late Feb.. Personally, I paid 3.39 on Monday in my area, which felt pretty decent.

Now, I turn the floor over to the Chicken Little set for infinite nitpicking...

 

Looks like the FED and world wide regulators have things in skillful hand. The major drivers, supply shortages and energy prices, are moving in the right direction but OPEC looks set to cut production again so we shall see how that goes...

 

I think it is a little early to celebrate. The Fed has announced that they may ease on the interest rate hikes, maybe only 1/2 % at the next meeting? I think this is what got markets excited yesterday. Will they achieve the coveted soft landing? Time will tell.

Now, let's wait for the usual Biden haters to come in and tell us why this good news is really bad news, and how many people were laid off today by the private sector, ending with: Dem votes have consequences, always harmful. They are SOO predictable, living in the Fox News propaganda bubble.

 

A friend of my third cousin got fired the other day......
Democratic votes have consequences, always bad for the friends of third cousins........

 

Keep an eye on layoffs as they continue. It's great that there wasn't another negative GDP but the economy is not good. Don't believe me, ask any of the tens of thousands who have recently lost their positions

 

I'm not "Chicken Little", but I'll repeat what I've said ever since the Federal Reserve central bank combine completely hijacked the economy of the United States back in 2008 -- the Fed controls EVERYTHING of any real importance, in one way or another.

Follow the progression, all through the "Quantitative Easings", "Operation Twist", the "Repo Crisis"... the nightmare that almost monkey-wrenched everything in September 2019, BEFORE the 'virus', and now we have the 'fruit of the Fed's labor' -- tilting at the windmill of INFLATION, with 'Don Quixote' on a sick horse with a limp-dick 'lance'....

I'm not an economist, either, and there are 'brighter lights' than mine right here in the Forum ( @Zorro comes immediately to mind), but it should be obvious to everyone that the Fed has really done next to NOTHING to actually stop inflation... period. Reflect on the fact that even with REAL, intelligent action taken to stop inflation taken by then-Chairman, Paul Volcker, it took him and Ronald Reagan 2 1/2 long, miserable years to finally bring inflation to a stand-still by the end of Q3, 1983. I remember it well!

But, these little piss-ant 3/4-point rate increases that everyone goes into apoplectic fits over today are NOTHING compared to what is really needed to get inflation stopped! Still, of course, everyone waits on any mere dropping from Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, about what the Fed will do next to protect the almighty-god stock market in December, and yes, it looks like a HALF-POINT increase, which is nothing but a sop thrown to stock market gamblers (among whom the Fed 'players' themselves have been prominent!) for their year-end profits.... Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/09/business/economy/fed-stock-trading.html

 

First off, nobody wants to STOP inflation.... the fed (and international) goal is 2%. Having inflation at 0% would be a disaster...

Second, raising interest rates 3.75% in less than 9 months is not nothing. It may not be enough in the end, but it's a surgical process, not a tenement demolition...

Finally, Inflation has gone down every month since the high of 9.1% in June. Whatever they are doing seems to be working, although apparently not fast enough for some...

 

We have persistent inflation which can apparently only be fixed by raising interest rates, putting millions out of work, and bringing on a recession. I believe most experts believe we will be in recession come 2023. Just read the other day that they expect the stock market to finish 2023 about the same point it started at in 2023. Gains will have to be selective. Inflation will be a fire which will continue to smolder no matter how much water we spray on it.

 

Economic guesses are like *******s.... everybody has one...

When you truly think about it, unless all the dials are set to essentially 0% (which I suppose is defined as stagnation), we are ALWAYS in either inflation (+) or recession (-). ALWAYS!

Those terms just aren't as scary as the right makes them out to be...

 

I think the signs are still there. The number of units sold to get that increase in GDP is decreasing. People are buying fewer items but spending more. And that is one sign of a recession. We are not there yet and no amount of broad-based tax cuts will save the day, just delay the inevitable. Some things are increasing as prices go down, such as automobiles, but home sales are decreasing. For Christmas shoppers, people are spending more but buying less.

But the point is the threat of recession is still there. Just need to see if we can increase export and import trade to help bring down inflation even further.

 

Well, I find that behavior highly counter-intuitive... If something costs more than you feel you should have to spend for it, don't buy it...

 

Well, for the last several months 70% of Americans think we are on the wrong track and inflation has taken a huge bite out of their asses. People are getting evicted and can't afford their rents or groceries. So, it's not a Republican thing. People ARE scared about today and tomorrow.

 

Does the movie "Jingle All the Way" ring a bell. When it comes to Christmas, almost everyone goes into debt and spends for those gifts, especially if you have little ones to deal with.

 

No, but I like the use of "ring a bell"

 

Good news is hard to find.

 

And

U.S. Economic Growth Slowed This Fall, Fed’s Beige Book Says
Central bank’s business contacts saw greater economic uncertainty amid inflation and higher interest rates

U.S. economic growth eased this fall with business activity in some parts of the country stalling or declining, the Federal Reserve said in a Wednesday report.

Businesses also expressed greater uncertainty and increased pessimism for the U.S. economy as prices and interest rates continue to rise, according to the central bank’s latest compilation of economic anecdotes from around the country, known as the Beige Book.

U.S. economic activity was “about flat or up slightly,” compared with a moderate average pace of growth cited in the prior report. The Fed said five districts reported slight or modest gains in activity and the other seven experienced either no change or slight-to-modest declines in activity. ...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ec...eige-book-says-11669836396?mod=article_inline

 

So, just asking, why should we accept your opinion here? I'm reading lots of discussion about headwinds and the business community is bracing for whatever happens, but most businesses are looking at everything from some softening to serious melting down. And we are seeing work forces shrink. One only has to ask the question why? If you ignore financial health, what would you have companies who are looking at future sales, and income loss? Is it your opinion that these companies must retain the heft of their overweight workforces?

I'd also ask a different question. Why must inflation not be 0? It sure makes value happen. It maintains the value of assets without constantly eroding their value. I suggest that 0 inflation does have a negative impact on future government growth, so perhaps that's more what you're being sensitive to than not. It's hard to imagine another explanation. Folks on assistance do love them some cost of living increases....

As you look accross business from services to manufacturing, work forces are being capped or reduced. That doesn't scream confidence in any manner. As you attempt to obfuscate from that, it erodes your credibility.

 

The key in all of these good feeling stats is that it came from lowering the trade deficit. That which I applaud, and that which we must continue to do. We must continue to insist on a fair share amongst the international community, and we also have to create fair workable situations for companies and workers alike, to thrive together to create a strong economy.

 

What's my opinion? That a 2.9 GDP is overall good news, especially after the first 6 months of the year?? I think that was the extent of my opinion in the OP (other than the RW would nitpick, for which I was proven 100% correct)

Feel free to disagree...but know you won't be the first...

You'd have to ask a real economer as to why inflation shouldn't be 0, but since 2% is the target from our Fed and others worldwide, I have no reason to question that.. nor should you...

 

We shouldn't because he thinks everything happens in a bubble. He ignores other aspects and especially inflation and interest rates. It'a useless arguement with people who prefers party > country at every cost.

The tactics and misinformation on our economy from the leftist media, the Biden Administration and those that support the current party tend to ignore the truth about the state of our country and the ill effect their policies are having. It's Unamerican and it's disgusting. It's also ruining peoples lives, daily.

 

Here is more good news:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/01/energy/gas-prices-us-russia-ukraine/index.html

"Prices at the pump plunge"

They are down 29 cents in the past month.

Any threads from he usual doom and gloom suspects about this? Not a chance. However, you can bet there would be 100s of "Biden did this" threads if the price had gone up by 29 cents.

Oh, well, looks like the economy is plugging along despite the partisan naysayers.

 

Yawn. Still higher than it was under Trump.

 

Economic expectations that I have read for months is that a recession would hit in 2023 not 2022.

So, the full impact of all of the issues that the Biden admin is at least partially responsible for are still unknown for now

 

Yeah, I mentioned gas in the OP.... for some reason, it bounced back up in late Sept/early Oct, but solid downwards since then...

Baby steps, economy!!

 

Democrats managed to push out into 2023 the worse aspects of mounting factors that will bring on a recession of considerable proportions in the coming year. But, by getting it all out of "top-of-mind", and pushed out of media visibility, Democrats were successful in keeping the worse developments from tainting the November elections a month ago. Democrats were SMART! Now, as we watch one problem after another coming clearly into public view during Q1, 2023, it'll be the Republicans who will be running the House (who have the 'power of the purse'), and THEY'LL get all the blame. Again... Democrats are SMART! By no later than the end of next March, it'll all be quite clear for all to see....

Republicans were already shot totally in the foot because of the inane, moronic activities against legal abortion by Justice Alito and conservatives on the Supreme Court, and the results of this idiocy are undeniable. So -- you wanna know why the 'woke' hyperliberals weren't flushed out of Congress in the midterm elections like so many piles of fecal matter...?! Well... now you have your answer....